2024 US Olympic Trials WAG Day 1 (6/28)

[Sasha]

Okay, but how risky is it actually to take Shilese Jones? Absolute worst case scenario, she goes down in warmups before TF, and has to be replaced by Jordan on UB (assuming a Simone/Suni/Jordan/Jade/Shilese team). Based on this year's scores, that would likely lose them about 0.75-1.00 points. This is not a trivial loss, but TFs rarely come down to < 1 point these days.

On the other hand, there is no one else who could net the team nearly the same UB score as Shilese. Another option would be to choose a fifth member who would bring in a high score on another event, but I'm struggling to think who could bring that, and on what event. Their best beamers, vaulters, and floor workers are otherwise "on the team" at this point, or out with injury.

ETA: this is based on a scenario wherein Shilese is brought only for bars.

 

[RichardL]

Okay, but how risky is it actually to take Shilese Jones? Absolute worst case scenario, she goes down in warmups before TF, and has to be replaced by Jordan on UB (assuming a Simone/Suni/Jordan/Jade/Shilese team). Based on this year's scores, that would likely lose them about 0.75-1.00 points. This is not a trivial loss, but TFs rarely come down to < 1 point these days.

On the other hand, there is no one else who could net the team nearly the same UB score as Shilese. Another option would be to choose a fifth member who would bring in a high score on another event, but I'm struggling to think who could bring that, and on what event. Their best beamers, vaulters, and floor workers are otherwise "on the team" at this point, or out with injury.

ETA: this is based on a scenario wherein Shilese is brought only for bars.

Jones is not scoring up to a point higher than Chiles on bars, right? The loss would be a few tenths, maybe .5. But the real problem here is the optics of bringing an injured athlete while others have shown readiness. The results at Olympic Trials have more serious implications than the USAG selection rules make them seem to be, and the USOC would not like the decision to bring an athlete to the Games who we just saw get injured on national television.

 

[MaryClare]

Shilese has pulled out of a meet and greet at the Sylvia P stand this afternoon in order to focus on being able to compete tomorrow. So that’s hopefully a good sign

 

[MaryClare]

Jones is not scoring up to a point higher than Chiles on bars, right? The loss would be a few tenths, maybe .5. But the real problem here is the optics of bringing an injured athlete while others have shown readiness. The results at Olympic Trials have more serious implications than the USAG selection rules make them seem to be, and the USOC would not like the decision to bring an athlete to the Games who we just saw get injured on national television.

I don’t think that’s the case. USOC won’t care about her injury, it’s more that they care about the negative publicity that’s involved with stripping an athlete of their Olympic accreditation and all the kit etc . Which I don’t think USAG would do now anyway. They’d rather rely on 3 gymnasts doing AA than face that I think!

 

[Sasha]

Jones is not scoring up to a point higher than Chiles on bars, right? The loss would be a few tenths, maybe .5. But the real problem here is the optics of bringing an injured athlete while others have shown readiness. The results at Olympic Trials have more serious implications than the USAG selection rules make them seem to be, and the USOC would not like the decision to bring an athlete to the Games who we just saw get injured on national television.

Jones scored 15.25 at Classic, whereas Chiles has scored about 14.3-14.5 this season. That's where I got the 0.75-1.00 (actually 0.95, lol, I rounded). I actually forget to include Jones' score from last night in my calculation - she got a 14.65 yesterday, which narrows the gap considerably. It's impossible to guess at this point which score is more representative of her capacity.

 

[Rich]

i guess the fight for bronze at the olympics will be tight now

 

[Caligym]

The thing that keeps Shilese in the running is having 4 strong AA’ers as the rest of the team. All of the top four can be used in a pinch on any event in team final.

There really is no one else who isn’t likely to get two-pered out of event finals. I know Kaliya was 2nd on fx but both Jade and Jordan are less than a tenth behind and proven world stage medalists. So I don’t think they’d reach down past the 5th AA to bring her.

If no Shilese I think whoever finishes 5th AA is on the team.

 

[MRR]

Jones scored 15.25 at Classic, whereas Chiles has scored about 14.3-14.5 this season. That's where I got the 0.75-1.00 (actually 0.95, lol, I rounded). I actually forget to include Jones' score from last night in my calculation - she got a 14.65 yesterday, which narrows the gap considerably. It's impossible to guess at this point which score is more representative of her capacity.

All depends on the layout jaeger. This would bump her D score 0.4; right now she is counting a B.

Did she attempt it in training?

 

[Sasha]

Yes:

 

[navyblue]

it’s more that they care about the negative publicity that’s involved with stripping an athlete of their Olympic accreditation and all the kit etc .

I don't fully understand this point, but @Passion also made it and I believe y'all. Since when did USAG become so sensitive about taking an injured athlete or availing themselves of using alternates? It happens every olympics, sometimes with more than 1 gymnast no? Is the difference just the transparency - that it's not a secret? And sure, it would be sad to "kick her out of the village" but A) life is sad and B) I was talking about a decision that would be made prior to traveling to Paris. Or is that delusional because they're actually headed to France ASAP? (I have no idea)

If I were having to justify this, I would challenge that even at the worst possible point of her injury (like an hour after it happened) this is a gymnast that was still able to get the #1 score on bars, with a routine that has still a lot of upward potential -- like, she outscored Jordan by 3.5 tenths, but she has the ability to outscore Jordan by 8. No other candidate really contributes that marginal value. And if this gamble starts to go downhill.... alternates are for this exact reason no? It just seems like the upside if higher vs. the other options where you have gymnasts with barely a TF-worthy routine let alone one with 8 tenths margin potential.

OK BUT YES I'M SOMEWHAT IN DENIAL ABOUT SHILESE. Even though I believe the logic of what I just typed above. If she could please take some cortisol injections and rock a 14.0 beam routine tomorrow that would be much appreciated.

 

[MRR]

Thanks. I think she should do it night 2. A 15+ bar routine forces the committee's hand in a way a 14.6 doesn't.

 

[Laura722]

This may be a gamechanger:

 

[MaryClare]

I don't fully understand this point, but @Passion also made it and I believe y'all. Since when did USAG become so sensitive about taking an injured athlete or availing themselves of using alternates? It happens every olympics, sometimes with more than 1 gymnast no? Is the difference just the transparency - that it's not a secret? And sure, it would be sad to "kick her out of the village" but A) life is sad and B) I was talking about a decision that would be made prior to traveling to Paris. Or is that delusional because they're actually headed to France ASAP? (I have no idea)

If I were having to justify this, I would challenge that even at the worst possible point of her injury (like an hour after it happened) this is a gymnast that was still able to get the #1 score on bars, with a routine that has still a lot of upward potential -- like, she outscored Jordan by 3.5 tenths, but she has the ability to outscore Jordan by 8. No other candidate really contributes that marginal value. And if this gamble starts to go downhill.... alternates are for this exact reason no? It just seems like the upside if higher vs. the other options where you have gymnasts with barely a TF-worthy routine let alone one with 8 tenths margin potential.

OK BUT YES I'M SOMEWHAT IN DENIAL ABOUT SHILESE. Even though I believe the logic of what I just typed above. If she could please take some cortisol injections and rock a 14.0 beam routine tomorrow that would be much appreciated.

It doesn’t happen every Olympics. What happens every Olympics is that gymnasts carry minorish injuries that they they work around. Once prelims begin they can’t change the team anyway. I believe the last time it happened was with Morgan White in 2000.

 

[Hatsumomo]

This may be a gamechanger:

That's uplifting news, but I would feel better if she got her knee scanned at a hospital to ensure that she didn't actually tear something or create a time bomb.

 

[Hatsumomo]

It doesn’t happen every Olympics. What happens every Olympics is that gymnasts carry minorish injuries that they they work around. Once prelims begin they can’t change the team anyway. I believe the last time it happened was with Morgan White in 2000.

Morgan White got injured at the camp before they left for Sydney, IIRC. Or for San Jose where they get their Olympic swag and necessities.

 

[QuietColours]

That's uplifting news, but I would feel better if she got her knee scanned at a hospital to ensure that she didn't actually tear something or create a time bomb.

I'm hoping that's a good part of what today is for her

 

[JaJa]

I haven't quite adjusted to the fact that Jones, DiCello, and Blakely are all out, when all three were likely Olympians.

Right. But they are. Most of us are having the hardest time admitting Shi is out but the fact is she is. They can not take her. Right now I would be fine with Simone, Suni, Jordan, Jade and with Hezly or Tiana.

 

[RedBirdie]

Morgan was definitely in Sydney when she withdrew. She had a stress fracture in her foot. It wasn't until they were in Australia that it because too painful to continue.

 

[lovegymnasts]

Right. But they are. Most of us are having the hardest time admitting Shi is out but the fact is she is. They can not take her. Right now I would be fine with Simone, Suni, Jordan, Jade and with Hezly or Tiana.

We always agree on so many things

 

[arabiandoublefront]

Morgan was definitely in Sydney when she withdrew. She had a stress fracture in her foot. It wasn't until they were in Australia that it because too painful to continue.

I was so upset when I found out she was out. She was one of my favorites on that team just from seeing the second day of Trials. I still watch her floor routine from time to time.

I was even more upset about what happened with Raducan, though. I hate the 2000 Olympics in hindsight. So many bad things happened.