2024 US Nationals MAG Discussion

[rlayt]

That’s what I think right now. Unless there’s an injury or it changes at Trials.

 

[Aeris]

So are we thinking it will be:
Malone, Richard, Moldaeur, Young, and Hong/Whittenburg??

Hong and Whittenburg will need several other people to flop if they want to make the team. Nedoroscik is in the driver's seat for the 5th spot. He's very close to being mathematically locked if he hits again at trials.

 

[irichluck21]

Will they risk Nedoroscik, a one event gymnast, when Whittenburg/Hong can provide a big score on vault and rings?
With Malone, Richard, Moldaeur, and Young, they don't really need Nedoroscik. If he falls (which is possible) that is a waste of a spot.
Great for that 15.400 on night one but Night 2 was 14.600- inconsistent, as he was in 2022 Worlds.
He didn't fall night 2 but lost D score.
Hong and Whittenburg being on the team for rings and vault really end up equaling what Nedoroscik would add to the team on one event. Hong can also bring a top 3 score on PB and Whittenburg on FX.

 

[OnoNoKomachi]

Nedoroscik has two more events to hit. He may end up taking himself out of the race.
The skill/risk equation is not the same for PH as it is for ring or even vault.
It could work out great. These pommel people can bring in big numbers if they hit, or even if they aren't perfect they can still get in the 14s. But 11s or 12s are also possible. It's pretty hard to get low scores like that on rings or vault.

Although Whittenburg managed to get a zero on a Ri attempt in 2022 Worlds qualifications.

 

[RedBirdie]

Yeah, I don't trust Hong or Wittenburg to hit any more than Nedoroscik.

 

[Aeris]

Hong and Whittenburg being on the team for rings and vault really end up equaling what Nedoroscik would add to the team on one event.

They aren't even close. Their top scores add about .7 to the team on those events combined (and those RSG vaults are not consistent). Nedoroscik's top score adds 1.7, and his 14.6 pommel from day 2 Nationals that you label as inconsistent adds .9 - still more than a best case scenario from either of the other guys.

The selection criteria is really clear - they look at the top scoring team based on average score and then also top 3 out of 4 scores shown at Nationals/Trials. If Nedoroscik hits at trials, it's mathematically impossible for anyone to beat him on the first criteria. On the 2nd criteria, the only person who can beat him is Curran Phillips if he has a perfect competition, IF at the same time one of Fred/Yul have their best competition ever on Pommel, therefore causing Nedoroscik's event to add less to the team total.

 

[KathySantoni]

Will they risk Nedoroscik, a one event gymnast, when Whittenburg/Hong can provide a big score on vault and rings?
With Malone, Richard, Moldaeur, and Young, they don't really need Nedoroscik. If he falls (which is possible) that is a waste of a spot.
Great for that 15.400 on night one but Night 2 was 14.600- inconsistent, as he was in 2022 Worlds.
He didn't fall night 2 but lost D score.
Hong and Whittenburg being on the team for rings and vault really end up equaling what Nedoroscik would add to the team on one event. Hong can also bring a top 3 score on PB and Whittenburg on FX.

I would still take Nedorosick, that 14.6 is still the 4th highest score on Pommel horse from both nights. The only person that is in the running for the team that surpassed a 14.6 is Young’s 15 from night 2. Brody can go low 14’s. If you don’t take Nedorosick you have to put someone that is aiming for 14.0 on an event that is notorious for falls and mishaps.

 

[tempest]

Nedorosick could realistically win a gold medal, could Hong or Whittenburg? I would love if Whittenburg finally made the team though

 

[OnoNoKomachi]

The top score a person can get and the average score over 3 or 4 scores are likely to be the same number, and the worst score a PH specialist can get is on average a lot lower than a rings or vault person can sink to.

It works out how it works out.

Yeah, I don't trust Hong or Wittenburg to hit any more than Nedoroscik.

It's harder to mess up vault and way harder to mess up on still rings than it is on pommel horse.
The best PH specialists fall or mess up on a regular basis.
Rings is hard to mess up (although it certainly happens).

Remember the last time Nedoroscik did one event for the US? It was a flat out disaster.
Doesn't mean it will be this time. It could work out great.
If he's on the team for his sake I hope it works out, because that Worlds must have felt awful.
Glad he came back and kept trying.

 

[Aeris]

The argument of "what if we take the pommel specialist and they miss" is a big fallacy. If he's not on the team, then someone else who scores even lower with a miss will be doing pommel in his place. It's sad Nedoroscik didn't have a great competition in 2022, but he scored 12.96 in that team final, while at the same time Brody's pommel miss scored 11.73 - that's still 1.2 points better! A bad pommel day can strike anyone and the specialist is still likely to score better.

 

[rlayt]

None of USA’s guys scored that bad on PH at Worlds. No Nedoroscik no Brody. Nobody who was terribly risky.

Khoi Young Qu 15.066. EF 14.96 TF 13.6

Fred Richard Q 14.2 TF 12.5 AA 13.733

Yul Moldauer Qu. 12.666 TF 13.533

Even Asher got a 12.33 in the AA.

Brody’s low score from a few years ago isn’t a data point in this discussion.

If Nedoroscik gets in he’d be risky.

 

[OnoNoKomachi]

It's more about concentrating the risk on one event that happens to be unstable.

A person who misses on PH could score well on other things. With a one event gymnast, when those points they expected from him are gone, they are gone.

There isn't any argument here. If Nedoroscik is on the highest scoring team he gets to go. I'd rather the highest scoring team work out to be something where the risk is spread out, but if it's not, it doesn't mean it won't work out well.

As long as him being there won't result in any 3 up 3 count situation in qualifying that team doesn't even have to be 0.5 better than any of the other ones.

Those are the rules. GBR and the USA in 2008 had a gymnast that only did PH and it worked out fine.

 

[Aeris]

Brody’s low score from a few years ago isn’t a data point in this discussion.

Neither is Nedoroscik's, and his low score from 2022 is still higher than the 12.5's Fred and Yul have both been prone to. From 2023 and 2024 Nedoroscik's lowest score is 13.6 - a significant 1.1 higher than the other guys.

 

[OnoNoKomachi]

He still has to stay on 2 more nights and not super mess up.
It could actually end up being Hoopes (although I doubt it).
He can bring in a bigger score than most other people so it would be great if it all works out in Paris.

There is no stipulation about how these teams are composed (other than requiring 0.5 better if the team will go 3 up 3 count). The only way I can see that happening is if that potential team has both Phillips and Nedoroscik on it, which at this point doesn't look likely.

Steven isn't the USAs only chance for a medal. Khoi Young could medal on PH or VT. He did it before. I'm pretty sure Khoi is going.

Brody Malone is a World HB Gold medalist. There might be some universe in which Frederick Richard could get a HB medal. His start value is high enough he could squeeze in there if he goes really clean.

Yul might get something on PB is he's lucky. He did make an Olympic FX final (although his floor hasn't been as great lately).

Asher or Donnell could get a vault medal. Vault is kind of crapshoot anyway.

 

[OnoNoKomachi]

People are already gearing up to be mad when Whittenburg doesn't make the team because they think his vault was scored too low.

He definitely is not out of it. The US sucks at rings, and he is strong there. He's got the highest FX D score (6.4). It would help him more to clean that up than retconning his vault scores.

 

[rlayt]

There were some interesting points made about those vault scores but some judges and fans were able to point out how those scores were logical so Km going to believe there’s no reason to worry about it. May the best team get picked. I’m more risk-averse than some so I’d definitely go with people who can provide backup on events.

 

[makam]

I'm more okay with a one-event gymnast in women's team due to there only being 3 more events but a 1 eventer, on a team with 5 other events, just isn't a thing I would be interested in. They are lucky their best AA gymnasts are reasonably strong and mostly consistent that they can even consider him. Frankly, I wouldn't want to reward someone who only brings one great thing to the table over other who have worked to bring six pretty good things.

I mean, unless he is physically unable to do any other events aside from ph, well, that's a different story. It feels like he could have developed at least a basic, non-zero set on pb or fx or something in the last 4 years.

 

[ewdot2480]

So are we thinking it will be:
Malone, Richard, Moldaeur, Young, and Hong/Whittenburg??

I think it’s between Juda and Nedoroscik. Juda scores higher on his specialty events than Hong/Whittenburg do on their specialty events (with direct relation to the other 4 guys on the team) and Nedoroscik scores more than anything Hong/Whittenburg can contribute with just his Pommel Horse score potential alone. Just my opinion, though.

 

[Rebel]

I think it’s between Juda and Nedoroscik. Juda scores higher on his specialty events than Hong/Whittenburg do on their specialty events (with direct relation to the other 4 guys on the team) and Nedoroscik scores more than anything Hong/Whittenburg can contribute with just his Pommel Horse score potential alone. Just my opinion, though.

Totally agree.

 

[Denn]

What people don't realize about Nedoroscik is that he literally does not do other events — like, if someone gets injured or sick and has to withdraw, he can't get up and do even a level 9 floor routine or vault.

I did not know this until a friend pointed it out. Look for videos of Stephen on youtube for the other apparatus. You get some level 8 routines. He has not really done the other 5 events AT ALL.