2024 US Nationals WAG Day 2 Session 2

[RedBirdie]

Yes, I do not envy the selection committee this year. Unless something dramatic (and unfortunate) happens, this is not going to be a case of "last gymnasts standing" when it comes to picking the team. Excellent gymnasts are going to be alternates. It's very possible the current US AA bronze medalist isn't going to compete in Paris. At least 1, and possibly 2, Tokyo Olympians will be relegated to alternate roles. Even the fight to be the 2 travelling alternates will be fierce.

 

[ArnoldRimmer]

I do think the words "lock" and "peak" are overused. You can't call someone a lock and then change your mind 2 weeks later. You can't say someone has peaked or hasn't peaked based off of two data points. You can't point to "trends" at domestic vs international if there are only a handful of data points to choose from.

Part of the frustration of picking this team is that most of them just haven't shown a lot over the last two years in elite. There just isn't a lot of data to go on.

Great point.

I've probably been guilty of it myself too, but at the moment nobody other than Simone is a lock. Shilese would be if not for her shoulder, but unfortunately that's now something we have to factor in.

 

[MaryClare]

Talking about them naming the team at Trials. That must mean they have pretty much decided who before trials. Because they can't look at all the scores and discuss the ins and outs of various combinations for hours while people are waiting in the stands. Or do they have a couple of hours and come back later and announce the team. So trials is just an affirmation of what they have decided isnt' it?

Quite possibly the gymnternet’s golden hour every quad is the hour between the end of competition and the team announcement

 

[Passion]

It took fans less than five minutes after Nationals ended to post the highest scoring team scenarios based on Nationals and Classics scores.

The selection committee likely has a number of teams pre-planned out, not just one team in mind. All they have to do is plug in Trials performances as they go then pick the team that makes the most sense.

If all the scores at the top stay bunched together, AA placement at Trials is going to factor in heavily. It’s not like anyone is running away scoring 15+ on an event like Nedoroscik, giving the team a full point over the next AAer. Scoring .3 tenths more on an event than the next person isn’t going to be enough to put you on the team over them if you finished 7-12th and they finished 3rd-6th AA.

 

[JaJa]

Consistency consistency consistency

 

[RichardL]

I would guess that the top four at Trials will be locks for the team. There's too much of a bottleneck at a certain point that it'll make political sense to go with top four. Then you add in someone who maybe had a disaster on an event but was otherwise in the mix and needed for their specialty. Or just take top five if it works out that way.

 

[Ginger]

I would say top three.
The two remainins spots will go to those with potential to win event medals.
Hopefully Lee for bars/beam.
And Carey for floor, but she needs to bring and hit her upgrades.

Also, while we can only speculate who will bring which upgrades or how is Jones training going with that injured shoulder etc..., I think the selection committee has much better idea where the things stands as of now and they know what to expect at trials.

 

[Bob]

Thanks all that very much helps with understanding how they do it.

 

[KristyJ]

I think only the top two at trials will be locks. If you're 3rd-7th, you better hope you have some top three placements in an event or two, at least. In this regard, Kayla, Hezly, and Leanne need to pull an event or two up. I feel bad for the gymnasts who just miss because they'd be on probably any other team in the world, easy.
All that said, I hope that the gymnasts who are alternates feel good about their accomplishment, and I honestly hope Hezly gets an "AA alternate" spot either traveling or non-traveling (as I find it a reach that she'd make the team this year but she's quite likely to head to worlds next year) and gets good experience from the leadup process. I hope the veterans who just miss do their best at trials, too, so they can be proud of what they did.

 

[Aeris]

Scoring .3 tenths more on an event than the next person isn’t going to be enough to put you on the team over them if you finished 7-12th and they finished 3rd-6th AA.

It should. Those tenths on FX for example will likely determine if a 2nd American will be able to get on the podium in finals. In a team of Simone, Shilese, Suni, Skye why should a selection committee care about how good the 5th member of the team is on UB/BB, when none of the options are better than the top 4. They aren't needed for those events even if one of the top 4 has to pull out.

 

[BB12]

Yes, I do not envy the selection committee this year. Unless something dramatic (and unfortunate) happens, this is not going to be a case of "last gymnasts standing" when it comes to picking the team. Excellent gymnasts are going to be alternates. It's very possible the current US AA bronze medalist isn't going to compete in Paris. At least 1, and possibly 2, Tokyo Olympians will be relegated to alternate roles. Even the fight to be the 2 travelling alternates will be fierce.

On the other hand, there is no wrong decision.
No matter who they pick, it will end with the same result so they dont need to be that stressed about it.

 

[rlayt]

With everyone so close in score after the 2st and 2nd positIons I wonder what intangibles will be important to the committee? I haven’t heard anyone is hard to get along with so maybe not that. Previous hitting under pressure is hard to score. . Previous Olympians might have a slight edge on that.

 

[ucrgirl]

With everyone so close in score after the 2st and 2nd positIons I wonder what intangibles will be important to the committee? I haven’t heard anyone is hard to get along with so maybe not that. Previous hitting under pressure is hard to score. . Previous Olympians might have a slight edge on that.

I do think that those intangibles matter more than fans with spreadsheets acknowledge.

 

[makam]

With everyone so close in score after the 2st and 2nd positIons I wonder what intangibles will be important to the committee? I haven’t heard anyone is hard to get along with so maybe not that. Previous hitting under pressure is hard to score. . Previous Olympians might have a slight edge on that.

Yeah, if gymnast X was an annoying brat who never shut up, it would be easy to find a way to leave her behind. But like you, I've never heard of any bad blood between any of the top contenders. Nothing like the Simone-Morgan(?) situation last quad.

 

[RichardL]

2020 was top 5 AA (5th got the individual spot). 2016 was top 3 AA plus Douglas and Kocian, which was always the plan and Douglas just had those beam mistakes. 2012 was 4 of the top 5 AA, with Ebee Price having the glow-up that no one needed and w/ Maroney being the "guaranteed" vault gold medalist. 2008 was top 4 AA plus Sacramone and Sloan who didn't compete AA at Trials. The top 3 AA at Olympic Trials have never not made the Olympic team in the modern era, and it's likely in this era of AAers that the AA standings at Trials will decide the Olympic team, especially since it's announced live directly following the competition to an audience who are largely uneducated about the sport beyond the standings they would have been following over the two days of competition. But let's see what happens.

 

[irichluck21]

The team could very well shake out to be top 5 in rank.
It all depends on Shilese's injury status. Her coach said that had it been Olympic Trials or the Olympics she would have been good to compete, so fingers crossed some rest will have her healed up.

 

[JaJa]

w/ Maroney being the "guaranteed" vault gold medalist.

I still have not gotten over what happened.

 

[Kara]

Shilese's situation worries me, but maybe I'm just paranoid after seeing all the it's just precautionary statements from British Gymnastics that all turned out to be season ending injuries.

 

[JaJa]

Shilese's situation worries me, but maybe I'm just paranoid after seeing all the it's just precautionary statements from British Gymnastics that all turned out to be season ending injuries.

I think we are all a little worried. We will see what happens at Trials

 

[blake]

I think Doug will get a kick out of this.