US Nationals WAG Day 2

[Doug1233]

It seems to only be on beam and floor. Bars and vault are very fair for Skinner.

No idea why.

 

[ArnoldRimmer]

Bearing in mind her Cheng is actually ok now, if they do pick the 4th based purely on maximising the team total, she might actually be a deserving pick. It wouldn’t be the tactic I’d use, not if Lee is going to be on the main team. But if they’re going down that road she may very well be the best one for what they want.

 

[rue_des_plantes]

Interestingly, her “team total” argument might work better under an FIG panel than a USAG one, since vault is the only piece US judges are stricter with than FIG.

If she is getting 8.9 and 9.0 on her Cheng, that lands her closer to the DTY parade than it does the 9.335 mark from Nanning. The judges had Chiles and Jones’s DTY outscoring her Cheng, for instance, and McCallum can sleepwalk her DTY as well.

 

[irichluck21]

I know people have been bitching about them making Olympic Trials over Hurd, Hernandez, Finnegan, and Memmel but I am SERIOUSLY impressed with Miller, Siegfeldt, Drayton, and Fatta on various events and I am looking forward to seeing if the confidence and experience translates into future international assignments and Worlds. I think Siegfeldt and Fatta can be World contenders. Fatta needs some more difficulty on bars and beam but her DTY is competitive internationally and her floor is World class too.

Fatta VT Day 2 (E score 8.900, I had it at 9.2)



Fatta VT Day 1 (E score 9.050…I had it a 9.3)



Fatta FX (super clean, just needs a little bit more in D score upgrade 2nd and 3rd passes, but love the 2 1/2 out to double tuck!!!)



Ava Siegfeldt VT (clean 1 1/2)



Ava Siegfeldt FX (needs more difficulty in tumbling, but clean skills and beautiful double layout)


Zoe Miller VT (gorgeous 1 1/2)

Zoe Miller - Vault - 2021 U.S. Gymnastics Championships - Senior Women Day 2

Score: 14.200 (5.0, 9.200)June 6, 2021 - Dickies Arena - Fort Worth, TexasSUBSCRIBE to the USA Gymnastics YouTube Channel: http://bit.ly/1DOeeZjYou can check...

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Zoe Miller Bars (already 6.0 in D score and super clean! Loads of potential here)

Zoe Miller - Uneven Bars - 2021 U.S. Gymnastics Championships - Senior Women Day 1

Score: 14.300 (6.0, 8.300)June 4, 2021 - Dickies Arena - Fort Worth, TexasSUBSCRIBE to the USA Gymnastics YouTube Channel: http://bit.ly/1DOeeZjYou can check...

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Amari Drayton VT (BIG DTY, I can see her getting a huge score for a stick or upgrading to an Amanar)

Amari Drayton - Vault - 2021 U.S. Gymnastics Championships - Senior Women Day 2

Score: 14.500 (5.4, 9.100)June 6, 2021 - Dickies Arena - Fort Worth, TexasSUBSCRIBE to the USA Gymnastics YouTube Channel: http://bit.ly/1DOeeZjYou can check...

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Amari Drayton UB (low D but potential is there)

Amari Drayton - Uneven Bars - 2021 U.S. Gymnastics Championships - Senior Women Day 1

Score: 13.400 (5.4, 8.000)June 4, 2021 - Dickies Arena - Fort Worth, TexasSUBSCRIBE to the USA Gymnastics YouTube Channel: http://bit.ly/1DOeeZjYou can check...

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Some great gymnastics!!!

 

[Doug1233]

Not sure which thread I posted it in but our panel had Siegfeldt higher in the AA than Skinner.

 

[JaJa]

Not sure which thread I posted it in but our panel had Siegfeldt higher in the AA than Skinner.

I thought her Floor was beautiful. Good tumbling, good artistry. (Ava that is – not Mykayla – )

 

[rue_des_plantes]

WWGym Nationals panel: this is only using data of 14 realistic Tokyo “contenders.” USAG placements are in parentheses. I put over/underscores for AA totals but not individual events because it looks too clunky and confusing. Plus means USAG was higher than WWGym.

AA:

1. Simone Biles, 58.400 + 59.533 = 118.233 (1, +1.417)
2. Sunisa Lee, 57.300 + 57.017 = 114.317 (2, +0.633)
3. Jordan Chiles, 55.533 + 57.167 = 112.700 (3, +1.750)
4. Skye Blakely, 54.033 + 55.650 = 109.683 (7-T, -0.133)
5. Leanne Wong, 54.725 + 54.583 = 109.308 (5, +0.842)
6. Emma Malabuyo, 54.100 + 54.600 = 108.700 (4, +1.750)
7. Jade Carey, 54.325 + 54.333 = 108.658 (6, +1.342)
8. Kayla DiCello, 53.858 + 54.500 = 108.358 (11, +0.442)
9. Grace McCallum, 53.500 + 54.600 = 108.100 (7-T, +1.45)
10. Kara Eaker, 53.367 + 54.117 = 107.484 (10, +1.566)
11. Shilese Jones, 53.000 + 54.200 = 107.200 (12, +1.300)
12. Emily Lee, 52.900 + 54.250 = 107.150 (13, +1.100)
13. MyKayla Skinner, 52.450 + 53.667 = 106.117 (9, +3.383)

VT (EF):

1. Biles, 15.525 + 15.367 = 30.892
2. Skinner, 14.934 + 14.934 = 29.868
3. Chiles, 14.350 + 14.492 = 28.842
4. Carey, 14.350 + 14.325 = 28.675

VT (TF/AA):

1. Biles, 15.750 + 15.433 = 31.183
2. Jones, 14.900 + 15.000 = 29.900
3. Skinner, 14.867 + 14.867 = 29.734
4. Chiles, 14.800 + 14.833 = 29.633
5. Wong, 14.700 + 14.567 = 29.237
6. Blakely, 14.667 + 14.500 = 29.167
7. Carey, 14.600 + 14.500 = 29.100
8. DiCello, 14.633 + 14.400 = 29.033
9. McCallum, 14.600 + 14.400 = 29.000
10. E. Lee, 14.300 + 14.400 = 28.700
11. S. Lee, 14.267 + 14.300 = 28.567
12. Malabuyo, 14.000 + 14.400 = 28.400
13. Eaker, 13.900 + 13.850 = 27.750

UB:

1. McCusker, 14.750 + 15.133 = 29.833 (2)
2. S. Lee, 15.250 + 14.533 = 29.783 (1)
3. Biles, 14.650 + 14.567 = 29.217 (3)
4. Chiles, 14.300 + 14.467 = 28.767 (4)
5. Jones, 14.000 + 14.300 = 28.300 (5)
6. Carey, 13.725 + 13.333 = 27.058 (7)
7. Wong, 12.600 + 14.000 = 26.600 (9)
8. DiCello, 12.900 + 13.700 = 26.600 (12)
9. Blakely, 12.933 + 13.600 = 26.533 (11)
10. Malabuyo, 13.700 + 12.700 = 26.400 (6)
11. Skinner, 13.250 + 13.100 = 26.350 (8)
12. Eaker, 13.400 + 12.500 = 25.900 (10)
13. McCallum, 13.000 + 12.700 = 25.700 (13)
14. E. Lee, 11.800 + 12.850 = 24.650 (14)

BB:

1. S. Lee, 13.900 + 14.867 = 28.767 (2)
2. Biles, 14.000 + 14.700 = 28.700 (1)
3. McCallum, 14.000 + 14.100 = 28.100 (3)
4. E. Lee,. 14.100 + 13.750 = 27.850 (7)
5. Eaker, 13.467 + 14.167 = 27.634 (5)
6. Chiles, 13.600 + 14.000 = 27.600 (4)
7. Blakely, 13.000 + 14.250 = 27.250 (8)
8. Malabuyo, 12.700 + 14.100 = 26.800 (6)
9. Carey, 13.200 + 12.933 = 26.133 (10)
10. Wong, 13.325 + 12.750 = 26.075 (9)
11. DiCello, 12.425 + 12.500 = 24.925 (11)
12. Skinner, 12.100 + 12.200 = 24.300 (12)
13. Jones, 11.700 + 11.600 = 23.300 (13)

FX:

1. Biles, 14.000 + 14.833 = 28.833 (1)
2. DiCello, 13.900 + 13.900 = 27.800 (2)
3. Wong, 14.100 + 13.267 = 27.367 (3)
4. S. Lee, 13.600 + 13.600 = 27.200 (5)
5. Malabuyo, 13.700 + 13.400 = 27.100 (6)
6. Blakely, 13.433 + 13.300 = 26.733 (9-T)
7. Chiles, 12.833 + 13.867 = 26.700 (4)
8. Carey, 12.800 + 13.537 = 26.337 (7)
9. Eaker, 12.600 + 13.600 = 26.200 (11)
10. E. Lee, 12.700 + 13.250 = 25.950 (8)
11. Skinner, 12.233 + 13.500 = 25.733 (9-T)
12. Jones, 12.400 + 13.300 = 25.700 (13)
13. McCallum, 11.900 + 13.400 = 25.300 (12)

The panel thought Skinner was the most overscored (average of ~4 tenths per routine), followed by Chiles, Malabuyo, Eaker, Biles, McCallum, Carey, and Jones, who were at least 0.15 too high on average. The only person the panel believed was scored accurately or underscored in AA was Blakely, who came out fourth per WWGym but seventh per USAG. The panel also agrees with USAG’s AA scores for DiCello and Lee, within an average of 1 tenth per routine.

Per WWGym, Biles, Lee, and Chiles should be locks going into Trials, plus McCusker in some capacity, who they believe beat Lee on bars. USAG said the reverse. There was a bigger dropoff and less depth on bars, beam, and floor than vault. Nobody else made a case to do bars in TF over Chiles, McCallum was top 3 on beam, and DiCello was top 2 on floor.

 

[Doug1233]

Someone like Blakely has completely gone past everyone’s radar because, despite us putting her in 4th, she doesn’t break the Top 5 on any one event.

And also crazy how bunched that 4th AA spot is.

Thanks for doing this!

Looking forward to Trials!

And yes, McCusker and that Bar routine has to be in Tokyo. Yet I said that about Becky…

 

[irichluck21]

Blakely could have potentially been 3rd if she had hit 8 for 8 at Nationals. A completely nailed beam set gets her 14.5-14.8 and her DTY is normally 14.5-14.7 those are strong scores to supplement an average bars and floor.

If you add back 1 point only for her day 1 beam fall she is in 4th by .1 over Malabuyo.

It will be a blood bath at Trials despite the top 3 essentially locks, the battle for 4th will be extremely exciting and could come down to a tenth.

Also if Chiles crumbles at Trials (unlikely) she could easily be dropped from the team. We have seen her come undone by the pressure previously, but she really is a different gymnast now with the Landis.

 

[RedBirdie]

I’ve been waiting for Chiles to go, well, full Chiles since Winter Cup and she just keeps hitting. It’s really amazing. She’s such a different gymnast now.

 

[irichluck21]

Let us see what happens. I predict she either goes 8 for 8 or has a full meltdown, one fall would probably create a landslide.

 

[Doug1233]

I think they’d still take her.

 

[Sasha]

Excellent analysis and summary, thank you!

 

[Doug1233]

Looking at WWGym Panel - the best 4th spot if you’re going by a VT/FX person to fill in for Suni is …. DiCello! Based on Nationals.

 

[Caligym]

Looking at these scores makes me wonder if we are talking about best team total why isn’t more being said about Jones? She brings the same vault score as skinner and could also allow biles to take UB off in team final.

 

[dweiss324]

Frankly, just about anybody is more interesting than DiCello or McCallum in terms of gymnastics and skill selection. Even skinner. Basically if it were me I’m picking the team based on “grab-the-popcorn”.

Also how bout this. USAG is miffed that Jade took the +1 spot on her own. They know her ankle is not fully healed. They throw Riley on the main team because who cares, give Mykayla the +1 as revenge for Jade taking advantage of the system. Mykayla outscores Jade and gets into finals (which… is almost likely at this point). Suni outpaces jade in floor for EFs too. Jade goes home with no EFs and no medals, and USAG gives a big middle finger to anyone that dares try and pull the wool over them ever again.

This “nobody for the fourth spot” is like a dream come true, they can do whatever they want without suspicion or consequence

 

[tempest]

I was actually just thinking what a waste if Jade didn’t make any final finals

 

[Jack]

Frankly, just about anybody is more interesting than DiCello or McCallum in terms of gymnastics and skill selection.

Totally agreed. I’m hard pressed to think of anyone in recent memory more overpraised here than McCallum. I have no problem joining that bandwagon though if she denies Skinner a spot in Tokyo.

 

[rue_des_plantes]

Exactly. McCallum is so milquetoast and her consistency is way overrated. However, blocking Skinner at this point either means you rely on her, GAGE, or DiCello, and I sure af don’t want the last line of defense to be GAGE.

 

[YurchenkoLoop]

This is why I love McCallum:



She has insane potential on bars and works quite well with the apparatus. She also has fantastic choreo on beam, and great technique across the board. She’s not my favorite, but I had to spread some love