2023 Xfinity Nationals Senior WAG Day 1 discussion

[RedBirdie]

I’m not sure who surprised me more with a top 10 finished: Amelia Disidore or Madray Johnson.

 

[Laura722]

My preferred team right now: Biles, Jones, Blakely, Wong, and Lincoln.

 

[navyblue]

I feel like the debacle of Tokyo ought to have done a lot to dispell this myth of the purported objectivity of picking a “highest scoring team” that indifferently allows for single or 2-event gymnasts at the expense of well-rounded all-arounders. I think it should be said that true specialists in the vein of MyKayla Maroney obviously deserve consideration on teams, but it’s really rare these days that gymnasts carry these huge single event margins anymore, so deferring to the results of even just one or two meets prior to a major competition selection just doesnt make a ton of sense to me – in other words, no, I don’t think Tiana and Kaliya make a ton of sense when you have gymnasts like Leanne and Jordan at your disposal.

 

[Kara]

I think if Chiles can get her floor back to 2022 Worlds level Lincoln’s chances go way down.

 

[blake]

It’s remarkable that Shi competed tonight with a not yet fully healed labrum!

 

[navyblue]

It’s kinda hard for me to feel like we know much of the reality of what floor is going to be like at worlds… like… scoring was kinda bizarre IMO. I don’t doubt that Kaliya can score big, but I am suspicious that she will actually carry that kind of margin over gymnasts like Leanne and Jordan and Shilese and Skye when worlds actually happens.

 

[RedBirdie]

7-21 all around are within 2.05. That’s a ton of gymnasts all bunched together; a single fall (let alone 2) can really send someone plummeting down that standings.

That does mean that some people who had rough days have the potential to make big moves if they hit day 2.

 

[blake]

Jeez, poor girl. 3rd to last in the AA standings. Even without the falls, I don’t see why they’d take this routine to worlds. I don’t think it would be received as well as it has at domestic meets and DTB cup.

 

[J175]

Yeah but Roberson would always be fifth choice, even if one person gets injured her score wouldnt count. And you can sub in the alternate for the final at Worlds. The scenarios where she would ever do bars in a team final for a five person team are so unlikely.

Like with GB I don’t consider selecting Becky Downie a risk for a five person team where it was with just four in Tokyo.

 

[navyblue]

What was the correct strategy here? Didn’t we see this with two WCC gymnasts – Tiana and Zoe who made the same tactical error after falling? They tried to ‘stay on’ the bar, but obviously the endurance suck of starting your routine and having to repeat a kip/cast/handstand/full twisting pirouette skill is extremely dubious. They both seemed determined to not ‘fall’ off the bar, and I suppose it is true they could avoid the full 1.0 deduction from falling out of those pirouette skills, but at the same time it just seems so obvious that starting your routine over at the very beginning is gonna be borderline impossible. Maybe a coachable moment with the Landis…

 

[blake]

Definitely to hop off and remount imo. It’s like when a gymnast slips on beam and is hanging on, trying to pull herself back up. There’s no benefit besides being able to say you technically didn’t come off the apparatus. The judges don’t give points for grit.

 

[makam]

In NCAA when they are windmilling their arms on landing trying to not move their feet, I almost wish that was more of a deduction than taking a step. I mean, yeah, you fought for it, but it sure didn’t look nice!

 

[navyblue]

Yep. Although with beam it’s not as terrible of a choice to just hang on like a sloth for a second. They have the strength to do that and then carry on. Falling in the wrong direction on Uneven bars and trying to recover while keeping your swing going is just a fool’s errand. It’s different if you just need like an extra empty swing before a pak salto or something. Idk just seems like strategy worth teaching cuz that bars score could really change Zoe’s trajectory.

 

[navyblue]

I am conflicted about this because if you watched Moceanu’s uneven bars dismount at the 96 olympics team final you cannot possibly argue against the fact that her saved stick was a matter of cosmic justice in the world.

(Smaller extent on her beam dismount too now that i think about it)

 

[RichardL]

Lol yes those two dismounts, which granted her huge scores on those events, are so funny to think about in retrospect…

 

[Kara]

Vault scores for 2 vaults:
Biles (YDP 15.7, Cheng 14.9; average 15.3)
Roberson (Cheng 14.65, DTY 14.0; average 14.325)
Blakely (DTY 14.35, Lopez 14.1; average 14.225)
Wong (DTY 14.25, Lopez 13.9; average 14.075)
Carey (Cheng 13.95, DTY 14.0; average 13.975)
Disidore (DTY 13.85, front handspring pike half 12.75; average 13.3)
Fatta (DTY 13.85, Lopez 12.95; average 13.175)

 

[navyblue]

Something’s up with Carey… even her DTY, theoretically a ‘safe’ vault for her is very middle of the pack, subpar block…

 

[RichardL]

My team based on tonight would be way different than what is likely to happen after Worlds selection camp. Chiles and Carey know the drill, and we all know how much Carey specifically transforms between Nationals and Worlds/Olympics. Chiles will have the endurance to get about .8 back from those last two passes, and she also upgraded between Nationals and Worlds last year.

My team predicting peak form by selection camp (not necessarily based on this weekend):

Biles, Jones, Blakely, Chiles, Carey… the same as Worlds last year, but with Biles in for Wong, who as others have mentioned is a perfect alternate, in that she’s the only person on the team who likely wouldn’t challenge for any individual medals.

I think Chiles and Carey will fill in any possible gains from Roberson and Lincoln across the board. I wish I saw Lincoln on a Worlds team, but the story of Lincoln and Miller and Roberson certainly has its precedents in the history of US team selection if they never end up making any major teams.

All of that said, Carey looked a mess tonight so I’d happily replace her with Roberson or Lincoln if I was making the call today. Zoe Miller basically dug her grave with that 11 on bars, unfortunately, and I don’t know if she’ll even get invited to the selection camp.

 

[Kara]

Agreed; she also almost face planted her beam dismount multiple times this week which I don’t remember ever being an issue.

 

[navyblue]

It’s weird to me to see such a sharp regression in the fundamentals of her vaulting technique, regardless of whether she’s doing something hard like an Amanar or ‘simple’ like a DTY.

And then the question of her Cheng. Today was terrible, obviously, but even when she’s “hitting” it like she did to win gold at 2022 worlds, she’s hardly even doing a front handspring anymore, she’s regressed into this weird quasi-kasamatsu technique. Actually looking back to Tokyo it was like this too