2023 Xfinity Nationals Senior WAG Day 1 discussion

[MRR]

Miller could still get an invite to camp if she hits night 2. She’s the only viable EF bar worker outside of Jones, but obviously that set falling apart to an 11 is a big blow, as is having no other usable event.

Chiles was much improved from training but still strikes me as alternate material. Her vault is great but replaceable by half the National Team, bars similarly there are plenty of options, and beam was underpar today and not high scoring at best. She could theoretically make a case for floor but the composition is not doing her favors with an extra dance element or acro line she doesn’t need. Even if spot #4 is for a utilitarian AAer, Wong was better based on today.

Biles/Jones/Blakely as your first three cover a lot of bases:

VT: Blakely, Jones, Biles (no Cheng but still an excellent lineup)
UB: Biles, Blakely, Jones (good)
BB: Jones, Blakely, Biles (questionable to include Jones but theoretically high scoring)
FX: ?, Jones, Biles (Blakely a nonstarter here)

So VT/FX is an obvious contribution for the last two spots and perhaps beam. I would include Lincoln for camp but one of Roberson or Carey should close the gap significantly by then. Their Cheng and EF bid for vault helps too. Lee may not be dead in the water if she can hit a mid-14 bars and beam like at Classic.

 

[gymfan]

Chiles had an off day in podium training, but she managed to get back on track today. I believe Carey will perform much better in day 2. Both Miller and Lee fell, but they can redeem themselves in day 2.

 

[gymfan]

I do not believe the selection committee will leave both Cheng home. This is where the US team makes such a margin from the rest of the field from the start. Also, medaling on vault with Cheng & DTY is more secure. I am not convinced that Lincoln’s floor will hold up nearly a full point margin internationally from Carey, especially there was no record of her international score.

 

[ArnoldRimmer]

Jade’s Cheng has been on a regression curve for a while. I’m surprised it’s got this bad, but the seeds were there.

 

[Aeris]

Outstanding bars for Simone. No hint that the toe full has given her so much trouble.

The flat feet and being very far off handstand are still trouble enough. I’m not seeing why they have this skill in her routine when she already has the giant full. A weiler at the start should score better, and that clears up space before the dismount to focus on possibly adding back in the extra twist. Or in my dreams going for a triple pike dismount, The Biles.

 

[JaJa]

Something’s up with Carey

Let’s wait for night two . Jade does have some history of choking and then recovering

 

[lovegymnasts]

exactly what I’ve been saying for years

 

[lovegymnasts]

Please elaborate or pointing to the thread. This sounds like a must read.

 

[irichluck21]

Roberson wouldn’t be doing bars, at all.

Wong, Blakely, Jones, Biles would cover bars.
Roberson would only do vault and possibly floor. Either Wong or Blakely would be off vault.

I don’t like Roberson at all but can’t deny her vaulting.

 

[Matilda23]

Really enjoyed Myli Lew’s gymnastics, especially her floor routine!

Day 1 Top 4 were impressive.

 

[MaryClare]

I don’t think she’s a good enough vaulter to bring just for vault

 

[ArnoldRimmer]

I can’t really see the point. She’d be vaulting instead of probably Skye? Maybe a couple of tenths more, and that’s if you trust her. Most likely the US will have a better use of the 5th spot available.

 

[Concorde]

Explanation given in presentation: Stomach not pulled in, rib cage not in front of stomach, and the rib cage is not lifted.

 

[MaryClare]

Unfair to use an athlete with an active FIG licence as an example, but Jordan’s posture is awful. You don’t need to have amazing carriage, Simone doesn’t but posture makes such a huge difference and there’s really no excuse for it.

 

[Sasha]

Stomach not pulled in, rib cage not in front of stomach, and the rib cage is not lifted.

That’s a very peculiar definition of good posture.

 

[gymfan]

I would trust Cheng & DTY to win a vault medal than DTY & Lopez. For the latter one, it depends on others to make some mistakes to win a vault medal. Two weeks ago, Blakely didn’t get that block right and the Lopez was devalued. She scored a 12.65. Carey didn’t get that block right, but she still got a 13.95. Cheng already provides buffer for mistakes.

 

[MaryClare]

But that historically hasn’t been enough for the US. Just ask Mykayla Skinner. They won’t take someone solely for a chance of a 2nd medal on vault

 

[YurchenkoLoop]

her 1/2 on block has always been like this, and honestly your screenshot is generous. When she first makes contact with the table, her arm makes about a 90 degree angle and her shoulder angle is very much closed.

@gymfan to your point about a vault medal being more secure with a Cheng and DTY… It’s true, but Chiles was 2nd behind Carey at Worlds and beat Devillard with her Rudi/DTY. There’s also Yeo and Moreno to contend with, but I think a clean DTY/Lopez from Chiles/Blakely could very well be enough for a VT medal. I have more faith in them to hit than I do Roberson anyway.

and @irichluck21 I meant that if one of the other four on your team gets injured in the TQ rotation before the UB, then Roberson would be put up on UB. And sure her score probably wouldn’t count, but it wouldn’t be pretty. For some reason, I’m not seeing room for specialists who don’t have serviceable routines across all four apparatuses. I know Maroney was effectively training just VT seriously in London because of injuries, but I think it’s too big of a gamble nowadays. There’s no reason to risk it, and no justification because no specialist is as worthwhile as Maroney was

 

[irichluck21]

In terms of a 2nd US vaulter.

Biles clearly has the gold as long as she hits her two vaults.
Andrade has silver is he hits her two vaults because her Cheng is just perfection.

That only leaves bronze up for grabs and any of Carey, Roberson, Blakely, Wong, Chiles would be in the running.

Sure Roberson has a Cheng, but it has deductions and also her DTY is suspect as well.

Also. What if Blakely debuts a Cheng? That essentially makes Carey and Roberson unnecessary for vault.

 

[rlayt]

Is Blakeley working on a Cheng?