2023 Xfinity Nationals Senior WAG Day 1 discussion

[irichluck21]

Is Blakeley working on a Cheng?

Yes, there have been video clips of her landing it with soft landing though.

 

[gymfan]

Jess Gadirova has a Cheng & DTY now. So a bronze for DTY & Lopez is less likely achievable. Jess Gadirova can score 14.4 on her DTY on a good day.

 

[YurchenkoLoop]

to put it bluntly, I really don’t think she can. The best she has ever scored internationally is a 9.2. Her range is usually between 8.8 and 9.2, and she’s pretty scrappy

 

[gymfan]

She was replaced by Eaker as a beam specialist in 2019, but it didn’t work out as expected. Given Sacramone is in charge and her focus on vaulting, I don’t think the historical data is enough to claim that they don’t need another vault medal.

 

[gymfan]

She scored 14.4 in 2022 qualification on vault. Winning a Cheng & DTY by DTY & Lopez isn’t likely. Chiles didn’t outscore Carey with her DTY & Lopez.

 

[ArnoldRimmer]

I don’t think we can assume a possible vault medal (because she’s far from a shoo in) will be the priority over other considerations. It’s possible, and as the US have the luxury of choosing a team to maximise their individual medal chances, it would be interesting to see them try. But that isn’t necessarily going to look like adding a vaulter to a team that already excels on the event.

 

[makam]

Unless one of them adds a YDP, vault has been devalued so much that a big vault doesn’t add more than a strong UB would. And worldwide, there are enough good vaulters out there that the US isn’t guaranteed two just by showing up anymore.

Until all the teams are named, we can’t really weigh the US vs the rest of the world scoring (with a grain of salt for nationals bias) but I don’t think they have to pick the highest scoring possible team to win with the injuries to Italy, russia out, GB having a bit of consistency issues…not to jinx it like tokyo, but Simone adds an easy 3 points that the other teams in the world just can’t make up (and that is with taking a half point ND on vt and a few OOBs on fx). They could pick an EF contender and get them some international experience and see how it goes or they can go with a team of veterans and the results will probably be similar.

The current top 5 would make a nicely rounded team but I want to see Wong day 2…my faith in her consistency isn’t there yet.

 

[YurchenkoLoop]

oh she did score a 14.4! That’s huge. A Cheng/DTY combo isn’t an automatic win. Carey lands her vault very upright, typically. Chiles was right on her heels and imo should’ve been closer, if not the outright winner

 

[MRR]

2022 Worlds had one of the better FIG vaulting panels in a long time. Good DTYs could actually go close to 9.5.

That said, the discussion boils down to spots 4 and 5 being somewhat redundant, no? A ratty Cheng isn’t needed just as a good DTY isn’t needed, and the former usually outscores the latter (excepting Carey’s last night). The top 3 AAers leave somewhat of a hole on beam and definitely on floor, and Wong outscored Chiles on both yesterday. Roberson also outscored Chiles on everything but bars.

I don’t want Roberson on the team, but I also don’t see the sub-11 on bars hurting her unless Chellsie and Alicia want to follow rank order. Worlds is much more lenient than Olympics with alternates and replacement rules, plus it’s uncommon to have somebody go down to where they physically can’t do a bar routine. Unlike Jade, she could actually do beam in an emergency.

Chiles could sizably help her case if she gets the FTDLO back by camp, ditches the double pike, and one of the wolf turn or switch side 1/2 (take your pick). Beam is never high scoring and bars is at best a replacement for Simone.

I would rule out Lee but a UB/BB gymnast would slot in perfectly and there really isn’t anyone else. Unfortunately her bars in training looked to have made no progress since Classics.

 

[gymfan]

It isn’t an automatic win because situations like Blakely’s Lopez at Classics and Carey’s Cheng in Day 1 can happen. But the chance of DTY & Lopez winning a Cheng & DTY is low, pretty much depending on the latter one to make mistakes. No Lopez can score as high as 14.8 or 14.85, which is an achievable score from a Cheng by Carey last year.

 

[irichluck21]

That said, the discussion boils down to spots 4 and 5 being somewhat redundant, no? A ratty Cheng isn’t needed just as a good DTY isn’t needed, and the former usually outscores the latter (excepting Carey’s last night).

 

[irichluck21]

situations like Blakely’s Lopez at Classics

Blakely should never have been devalued at Classic. Huge bad by the judges.
Execution deductions-sure. Devalue-completely wrong

 

[Kara]

A team of just Biles, Blakey, and Jones could easily win gold alone. Spots 4 and 5 could literally be drawn from a hat at this point and Team USA would be fine. Obviously, this assumes no injuries or twisty situations.

 

[gymfan]

It’s prediction after all, and my criteria is maximizing medal potential with a 5 member team. I don’t see any DTY & Lopez medalling this year, assuming everyone in the event final hits.

 

[MaryClare]

Assuming everyone in EF hits, Roberson isn’t medalling

 

[rlayt]

Roberson has suffered from the twisties off and on in the past.

Joscelyn Roberson bonded with gymnastics legends. Now she competes with them.

Rising star Joscelyn Roberson is a contender at the Xfinity U.S. Gymnastics Championships.

www.nbcsports.com

 

[MaryClare]

I’d say the majority of elites have at some point? Simone’s was just a one in a million chance at the worst possible time, in the glare of the world’s media

 

[rlayt]

Yes but most of them have never talked about it. It’s interesting that it has turned into something now.

 

[RedBirdie]

Roberson has suffered from the twisties off and on in the past.

Utterly unsurprising. Given how “huck and chuck” her gymnastics is, I’d be more surprised if Twisties weren’t an ongoing hurdle.

 

[ArnoldRimmer]

I’d certainly agree a DTY and Lopez are unlikely to medal. Vault stands to be more competitive this year.