Doha World Cup 2024, April 17-20 (Olympic Qualification)

[MrSixkiller]

What does Casabuena need to finish on floor to qualify for Paris?

 

[ArnoldRimmer]

I wonder if Lai Pin Ju will withdraw from beam for Ting Hua-Tien?

LPJ is out of the running for the 2nd Paris spot now anyway, and her only chance at the Olympics is winning the Asian continental qualification. Which is nominative, I believe. She's a high 48 AAer on a good day, so could be in the mix. Ting Hua-Tien, however, got 51.5 in the Asian Games, which LPJ has never done.

Given the choice between competing in a world cup beam final or potentially removing one of her competitors for the continental spot, she might well pick option B.

 

[QuietColours]

What does Casabuena need to finish on floor to qualify for Paris?

First or second, I think

Edit: According to the Reddit analysis, Casabuena gets the floor spot if she earns 25 or 30 points; Malabuyo gets it if Casabuena gets 20 or fewer.

Similarly, Casabuena needs 25 or 30 points on beam to get that spot, otherwise it goes to Ting Hua-Tien.

If Casabuena is the second qualifier on both floor and beam, the tie breaker gives her the floor spot.

Both Ting and Malabuyo are reserves, so Casabuena is controlling three people's Olympic chances on Saturday.

 

[Ginger]

So if Casabuena qualifies in both BB and FX, how it is decided which spot she takes? And if it's BB, then Malabuyo would get the 2nd FX spot, right?

 

[ArnoldRimmer]

So if Casabuena qualifies in both BB and FX, how it is decided which spot she takes? And if it's BB, then Malabuyo would get the 2nd FX spot, right?

Seeing elsewhere that the tiebreak procedure means she'd take floor rather than beam, but I'm not sure why.

If she ends up with neither, she's still probably the frontrunner for the European continental spot. Especially if we end up with an unused Oceania place reallocated to the next AAer down from worlds, ie Erika Pinxten.

 

[Ginger]

Especially if we end up with an unused Oceania place reallocated to the next AAer down from worlds, ie Erika Pinxten.

That's an option too? I would love to see Pinxten in Paris! She would so deserve it!

 

[ArnoldRimmer]

That's an option too? I would love to see Pinxten in Paris! She would so deserve it!

Afaik, there's nothing in the procedures to say what happens if a continental spot isn't filled. But no Australian is eligible, New Zealand probably won't accept it and it doesn't look like any other Oceanian WAG will be available either.

So people are guessing what will happen next. But worlds AA seems like the most obvious option.

 

[ArnoldRimmer]

Free finals link. You need to register/sign in.

https://shoof.alkass.net/live?ch=two

 

[Ginger]

Seeing elsewhere that the tiebreak procedure means she'd take floor rather than beam, but I'm not sure why.

Found it. Katherine Keirns on Twitter explained how it works:
"When an athlete qualifies on more than one apparatus they look to the lowest number of counting ranks. For Laura: BB: 4th in Cottbus, 4th in Baku, (2nd in Doha) = 10 FX: 2nd in Cairo, 3rd in Baku, (2nd in Doha) = 7 She did better on floor, so she gets the floor spot."

 

[ArnoldRimmer]

Benovic got the 2nd MAG floor spot, but if he also qualifies through vault tomorrow then it passes to Benjamin Osberger. The 2nd PH is Nariman Kurbanov.

Karla Navas has, heartbreakingly, come into form a couple of months too late. She won vault with a massive, if poorly controlled Yurchenko 1.5 and Mustafina. There is no mechanism for her to be in Paris.

Now to the tangled web that is bars!

 

[Ginger]

I think Paris for Ruivivar.
ETA: Brassart 7th (4th), Westlund 8th (5th).

 

[Ginger]

If my math is correct then:
GRB 70
Ruivivar 62
Tsitavets 55
Westlund 55
Brassart 43

 

[ArnoldRimmer]

Yes, it is. Levi has the second bars spot.

And talk about narrow margins! She qualified 8th to the final, by 0.077. Then beat Tsitavets today by 0.033. Poor Natalie Westlund looked like she'd fallen before she started. The nerves were too much.

 

[RedBirdie]

Levi an Olympian? Did not have that on my radar!

 

[ArnoldRimmer]

Levi an Olympian? Did not have that on my radar!

There's also a decent chance the Philippines are going to get the maximum number of individual spots, which would be really interesting.

Ait Said and Davtyan qualify through rings.

 

[Ginger]

Casabuena got the 2nd BB spot.
If she qualifies through FX too, the beam spot goes to Ting Hua-Tien.

 

[irichluck21]

So we could very well have other 3 max NOCs besides Germany, Hungary, and Mexico
Spain as well and potentially Phillippines.

Euros spot is going to be wide open. There are a lot of countries that won't be eligible.
France
Great Britain
Italy
Netherlands
Romania
Hungary
Germany
Spain

Really good opportunity for Belgium. Though Sweden and Finland have some solid all-arounders too. Maybe Camille Rasmussen?

 

[J175]

So we could very well have other 3 max NOCs besides Germany, Hungary, and Mexico
Spain as well and potentially Phillippines.

Euros spot is going to be wide open. There are a lot of countries that won't be eligible.
France
Great Britain
Italy
Netherlands
Romania
Hungary
Germany
Spain

Really good opportunity for Belgium. Though Sweden and Finland have some solid all-arounders too. Maybe Camille Rasmussen?

Lisa Vaelen would have been the clear favourite, but given she's out then it's probably Maellyse Brassart. The 52.8 she got at Euros last year is beyond the reach of anyone else still eligible for the spot, but she hasn't competed AA since then due to injury and isn't necessarily the most consistent.

I think Rasmussen is unlikely - her very best international score is 49.899, which is unlikely to be enough even if Brassart isn't involved. I think Sweden and Finland will both be disappointed not to get anyone to the Olympics. Sweden came so close at Worlds and then again this weekend. Finland were a bit unlucky with their top gymnast getting injured just before Worlds.

 

[QuietColours]

Casabuena will go for floor, Ting gets the second beam spot, and Malabuyo will need to get her vault ready for continentals

 

[Ginger]

Casabuena won floor among the eligible gymnasts, 3rd behind Nemour and Evans.
So hopefully Malabuyo tries the continental route.