Doha World Cup 2024, April 17-20 (Olympic Qualification)

[Ginger]

Casabuena will go for floor, Ting gets the second beam spot, and Malabuyo will need to get her vault ready for continentals

Great minds think alike

 

[J175]

Malabuyo has a chance at the Asian Championships. The North Koreans will be tough to beat, but they haven't really looked as good in the World Cups as the scores say they were at Asian Games. The big question is what sort of bars routine she will have.

 

[ArnoldRimmer]

Lisa Vaelen would have been the clear favourite, but given she's out then it's probably Maellyse Brassart. The 52.8 she got at Euros last year is beyond the reach of anyone else still eligible for the spot, but she hasn't competed AA since then due to injury and isn't necessarily the most consistent.

I think Rasmussen is unlikely - her very best international score is 49.899, which is unlikely to be enough even if Brassart isn't involved. I think Sweden and Finland will both be disappointed not to get anyone to the Olympics. Sweden came so close at Worlds and then again this weekend. Finland were a bit unlucky with their top gymnast getting injured just before Worlds.

I think Rasmussen's still in the mix. Bear in mind if the Oceania spot is reallocated through the worlds standings, that would be to Erika Pinxten, then also there's no guarantee the Swedish federation would send anyone who qualified via this route.

Brassart should take it if she can get back to early 2023 form, yes, but if she doesn't then it's wide open. So I don't think we can rule out anyone who can get into the 49s at this stage.

The same is true of Asia really. Also wide open. If Kim Su Jong turns up looking like she did at the Asian Games, it's hers. But nobody has seen her this year, the North Koreans who have competed have looked weaker than they did in 2023 as you point out. And, well, it's North Korea. Who the fuck knows.

So it would be worth Malabuyo's while to at least give it a go. She could have a 3 event total of 38-39, assuming she can still do an FTY. She's unlikely to beat an in form Kim Su Jong, but an 11 on bars would put her well in contention with everyone else.

 

[CameliasFingerpaint]

I’m wondering why her FTY never made an appearance in UCLA’s vault lineup this season. It wasn’t lineup worthy, but was still a backup option given the insane lineups UCLA puts up sometimes.

It’s a bummer, if Texas Dreams had given her any kind of sustainable technique, she would probably be capable of so much more. The fact that she is even still standing is a minor miracle.

 

[MaryClare]

Who is coaching Malabuyo for international? Because imo they have gone for the wrong strategy. Having one strong event has paid off for Levi. Malabuyo isn’t strong enough on one event, and probably isn’t good enough AA either. I find that a few UCLA athletes are under conditioned this season

 

[RichardL]

Who is coaching Malabuyo for international? Because imo they have gone for the wrong strategy. Having one strong event has paid off for Levi. Malabuyo isn’t strong enough on one event, and probably isn’t good enough AA either. I find that a few UCLA athletes are under conditioned this season

Floor would've paid off if she'd competed at her usual level in Doha qualifications though, right? I mean, it's still an NCAA routine that feels weird being sent to the Olympics when she is by far the best floor worker in the NCAA, but the strategy did almost work out for her.

That said, Levi Jung-Ruivivar as an Olympian also feels very weird!

 

[CameliasFingerpaint]

Who is coaching Malabuyo for international? Because imo they have gone for the wrong strategy. Having one strong event has paid off for Levi. Malabuyo isn’t strong enough on one event, and probably isn’t good enough AA either. I find that a few UCLA athletes are under conditioned this season

I was wondering that, as well. UCLA historically has had the same conditioning techniques as Russia circa 2010-2016. I would cut any coach some slack though with a Texas Dreams gymnast. Ragan Smith is doing the same watered down difficulty from her elite days as Emma, and she’s coached by KJ Kindler.

 

[RedBirdie]

Who is coaching Malabuyo for international? Because imo they have gone for the wrong strategy. Having one strong event has paid off for Levi. Malabuyo isn’t strong enough on one event, and probably isn’t good enough AA either. I find that a few UCLA athletes are under conditioned this season

I feel like Levi got lucky. I've loved her gymnastics since she was a little junior, but I didn't even consider her a legit threat for a bars spot until everyone else utterly collapsed under the pressure yesterday. Good on her for hitting when it really counted and taking advantage of mistakes to make Paris.

Emma's problem was relying on high e scores to offset low D scores on floor. She had no room for error, like getting hit with a significant downgrade in qualifications. She did originally try beam as well, but she's so far off being competitive on beam.

 

[ArnoldRimmer]

Floor would've paid off if she'd competed at her usual level in Doha qualifications though, right? I mean, it's still an NCAA routine that feels weird being sent to the Olympics when she is by far the best floor worker in the NCAA, but the strategy did almost work out for her.

That said, Levi Jung-Ruivivar as an Olympian also feels very weird!

It would. Both of them were in the position where they needed luck on their side and other people to hit and fuck up in just the right combination. I don't think either was strategically better than the other really.

Which isn't to say that Malabuyo couldn't have been better prepared, of course. She does come off as having more talent than Levi. Maybe it was the fact that she tried to do both NCAA and elite at the same time that was the problem, rather than having a year out. It hasn't worked too well for the gymnasts who've done that so far, notwithstanding that she may yet qualify through the continental route.

 

[J175]

I feel like Levi got lucky. I've loved her gymnastics since she was a little junior, but I didn't even consider her a legit threat for a bars spot until everyone else utterly collapsed under the pressure yesterday. Good on her for hitting when it really counted and taking advantage of mistakes to make Paris.

Emma's problem was relying on high e scores to offset low D scores on floor. She had no room for error, like getting hit with a significant downgrade in qualifications. She did originally try beam as well, but she's so far off being competitive on beam.

Yeah, I agree about Ruivivar, though her performance yesterday was very good. Until now she looked like one of several gymnasts in this series who consistently scored points but didn't have that top end score to get the 20+ points really needed to compete for qualification. She was only still in it because the bars field was so inconsistent. Her score yesterday was apparently her highest since 2018. (Also, I can't believe she's still only 17, 2018 is so long ago. There's no need for 12 year olds to be competing at that level)

Even with Ruivivar's unexpected 30 points this weekend Malabuyo still scored more overall, her problem was Moerz and Casabuena both scored more than anyone managed on bars.

Points of the second qualifier per event:

VT: 80
FX: 75
UB: 62
BB: 57 (61 if Casabuena had counted)

And for MAG:

HB: 80
SR: 75
PH, PB: 70
VT: 62
FX: 57

 

[J175]

MAG vault today ended up with the Pan Am qualifier Audrys Nin Reyes impacting the outcome. He took 25 points, James Bacueti behind him took 20 and missed out on an Olympic spot by one point.

That's if the FIG are interpreting the rules the way people think. I would wait for the official standings to be sure.

 

[Kara]

I believe Emma's still struggling with several injuries which is why she hasn't been able to upgrade her tumbling or compete vault.

 

[ArnoldRimmer]

I believe Emma's still struggling with several injuries which is why she hasn't been able to upgrade her tumbling or compete vault.

Do we know if it's likely the injury will prevent her from doing the AA this year?

 

[Kittentoes]

Is it selfish that I want Kaylia to vault?

 

[KathySantoni]

Rings:

1 ARM DAVTYAN Vahagn 6.0 8.733 0.000 14.733 Q
2 ARM AVETISYAN Artur 6.1 8.566 0.000 14.666 Q
3 FRA AIT SAID Samir 6.1 8.433 0.000 14.533 Q
4 AZE SIMONOV Nikita 6.2 8.333 0.000 14.533 Q
5 AUT HOECK Vinzenz 6.1 8.233 0.000 14.333 Q
5 EGY ZAHRAN Ali 6.1 8.233 0.000 14.333 Q
7 PRK JONG Ryong Il 6.2 8.100 0.000 14.300 Q
8 EGY MOHAMED Omar 5.7 8.533 0.000 14.233 Q

The qualification situation is unchanged, everyone who could still qualify made the final and is still in it.

Samir Ait Said 73 (18) - will guarantee qualification with third in Doha
Nikita Simonov 64 (16) - will guarantee qualification with a win in Doha
Jong Ryong Il 56 (10) - must finish at least 4th in Doha to have a chance
Vahagn Davtyan 45 (0) - must finish at least third in Doha
Artur Avetisyan 38 (0) - must win in Doha
Omar Mohamed 37 (0) - must win in Doha

Even though they can drop the zero, the Armenians are hurt by missing Baku because they couldn't take points off anyone else.

Ait Said can only lose out if Davtyan or Jong wins in Doha with Simonov second and himself fourth or lower, and then it'd go to a tiebreak between Ait Said and Simonov.

Thank you for the breakdowns. I read these as if they were being narrated by the guy that did the Bud Greenspan documentaries.

 

[Orange]

Ragan Smith is doing the same watered down difficulty from her elite days as Emma, and she’s coached by KJ Kindler.

I’m pretty sure Ragan hurt her ankle warming up a double layout and KJ proceeded to shut that nonsense down. Ragan making it through five years of college without a major injury has to be a minor miracle.

Malabuyo was just doing a Maloney/Pak UB routine at UCLA, right? I wish they would have had her doing some kind of single bar release just so she could get some kind of reps in before she has to try it in elite. Getting her bars up to code is going to be a problem.

 

[Beamer]

Are Malabuyo and Chusovitina now fighting for one Olympic spot at continentals? I don't want to choose between them but do hope at least one of them make it to Paris.

 

[ArnoldRimmer]

Are Malabuyo and Chusovitina now fighting for one Olympic spot at continentals? I don't want to choose between them but do hope at least one of them make it to Paris.

If Malabuyo attempts the AA continental route, yes. It's the only mechanism either of them now has to qualify for Paris. They have a month. 22nd to 24th May.

On the subject of Chusovitina, her qualifications bars video is now up on the Elevien app. It won't let me save it so I can't post it here. She fell on a cast on the low bar (!) and didn't do a same bar release at all. Remind me again, is that still a 1.0 deduction or is it lower now?

 

[Sanzhirovka]

If Malabuyo attempts the AA continental route, yes. It's the only mechanism either of them now has to qualify for Paris. They have a month. 22nd to 24th May.

On the subject of Chusovitina, her qualifications bars video is now up on the Elevien app. It won't let me save it so I can't post it here. She fell on a cast on the low bar (!) and didn't do a same bar release at all. Remind me again, is that still a 1.0 deduction or is it lower now?

Composition requirements are all a 0,5 deduction, no?

 

[irichluck21]

Yes.