Doha World Cup 2024, April 17-20 (Olympic Qualification)

[ArnoldRimmer]

Looks like Chusso withdrew from bars. I count 9 left to compete, so there will be some nervous nail biting from some of those who already went.

Elevien app is saying she's recording now. Not sure what's happened there?

eta- she did compete. 9.733 total, 6.133 E and 3.6 D.

 

[lovegymnasts]

 

[ArnoldRimmer]

These are the bars finalists

1	ALG	NEMOUR Kaylia	7.0	8.400	0.000	15.400	Q
2	AIN	TSITAVETS Alena	6.2	7.466	0.000	13.666	Q
3	NZL	BROWN Georgia-Rose	5.5	7.900	0.000	13.400	Q
4	SWE	WESTLUND Nathalie	5.6	7.800	0.000	13.400	Q
5	POR	MARTINS Filipa	5.3	8.066	0.000	13.366	Q
6	BEL	BRASSART Maellyse	5.7	7.566	0.000	13.266	Q
7	UKR	LASHCHEVSKA Anna	5.6	7.633	0.000	13.233	Q
8	PHI	RUIVIVAR Levi	5.5	7.700	0.000	13.200	Q

Think that means GRB is qualified? As there are 5 otherwise unqualified athletes in the final, so she will get no less than 16 points.

 

[navyblue]

Please let her hit like this at the Olympics!

 

[blake]

Is she the first to ever connect an in-bar skill out of a Pak? Super impressive! Just thinking about the mechanics of the connection makes me wince. I hope she's got a good physiotherapist.

 

[dweiss324]

She makes it look so easy and natural... Swoon

 

[Ginger]

These are the bars finalists

1	ALG	NEMOUR Kaylia	7.0	8.400	0.000	15.400	Q
2	AIN	TSITAVETS Alena	6.2	7.466	0.000	13.666	Q
3	NZL	BROWN Georgia-Rose	5.5	7.900	0.000	13.400	Q
4	SWE	WESTLUND Nathalie	5.6	7.800	0.000	13.400	Q
5	POR	MARTINS Filipa	5.3	8.066	0.000	13.366	Q
6	BEL	BRASSART Maellyse	5.7	7.566	0.000	13.266	Q
7	UKR	LASHCHEVSKA Anna	5.6	7.633	0.000	13.233	Q
8	PHI	RUIVIVAR Levi	5.5	7.700	0.000	13.200	Q

Think that means GRB is qualified? As there are 5 otherwise unqualified athletes in the final, so she will get no less than 16 points.

Yes, GRB will get 66 at least so she's in. The second spot is between Westlund, Ruivivar and Tsitavets. After they drop points, they have 39, 32 and 30. Too bad Tsitavets didn't compete in Cairo and didn't score in Baku, now she needs to rely on the other two messing up.
ETA: just went through Cairo results and Tsitavets actually competed there, ended 32nd with 12.066.

 

[irichluck21]

GRB has 50 points
Westlund has 47 points but can drop 8 here so 39 points
Ruivivar has 44 points but can drop 12 here so 32 points
Tsivets has 30 points
Brassart has 25 points

Point totals to give out are: 30, 25, 20, 18, 16 as the other 3 are not eligible for points.

GRB is qualified to Paris even if she finishes with 16 points because she would have 66 points. The only one that could pass her would be Westlund.

Brassart is eliminated at 25 points because even with 30 (55) it won't be enough as Westlund will pass her if she gets 16 points, giving her 55 points. Westlund would win the tie breaker automatically.

Tsivets and Ruivivar both need to win and get 30 points for 60 total and hope that Westlund doesn't get 25 points for a total of 64. So Tsivets and Ruivivar need to place 1st and Westlund can't finish higher than 3rd for points in order to advance.

Westlund just needs to finish with 30 points or 25 points to secure. She can still advance with 20 points but depends on who got 1st and 2nd in the rankings. If GRB wins 30 points and Westlund gets 20 points, Westlund will secure the invite.


So really 3 going for the last spot: Westliund, Ruivivar, and Tsivets with Westlund the mathematical favorite to advance.

 

[RedBirdie]

Thanks for doing the math, I was just trying to figure it out myself!

 

[ArnoldRimmer]

To add to this, I was told on Reddit that a Swedish speaking poster there has read the Swedish Olympic policies and reckons there's a good chance they'd send any athletes who'd qualify through this route. I know we were wondering whether that would be an issue. Sweden are still in the running for two of the remaining WAG spots, so that could be significant.

 

[J175]

GRB has 50 points
Westlund has 47 points but can drop 8 here so 39 points
Ruivivar has 44 points but can drop 12 here so 32 points
Tsivets has 30 points
Brassart has 25 points

Point totals to give out are: 30, 25, 20, 18, 16 as the other 3 are not eligible for points.

GRB is qualified to Paris even if she finishes with 16 points because she would have 66 points. The only one that could pass her would be Westlund.

Brassart is eliminated at 25 points because even with 30 (55) it won't be enough as Westlund will pass her if she gets 16 points, giving her 55 points. Westlund would win the tie breaker automatically.

Tsivets and Ruivivar both need to win and get 30 points for 60 total and hope that Westlund doesn't get 25 points for a total of 64. So Tsivets and Ruivivar need to place 1st and Westlund can't finish higher than 3rd for points in order to advance.

Westlund just needs to finish with 30 points or 25 points to secure. She can still advance with 20 points but depends on who got 1st and 2nd in the rankings. If GRB wins 30 points and Westlund gets 20 points, Westlund will secure the invite.


So really 3 going for the last spot: Westliund, Ruivivar, and Tsivets with Westlund the mathematical favorite to advance.

Westlund is in the best position, but Tsitavets still has a very good chance if she can hit her routine. That would most likely give her the full 30 points, and then Westlund cannot afford to finish behind anyone else.

This is actually a very interesting clash of different approaches to this World Cup series. Tsitavets has the highest score of the series (among eligible athletes), but has fallen in qualifying and scored no points at all twice. Westlund on the other hand has been extremely consistent - her scores so far are 13.2, 13.066, 13.366, 13.1 and 13.4 - but she has the lowest peak score of any of the five gymnasts eligible to score points in the final. Westlund needs other people to make mistakes, but so far there have been a lot of mistakes. She probably needs at least one more this week.

 

[J175]

MAG FX:

1 KAZ KARIMI Milad 6.3 8.233 0.000 14.533 Q
2 GBR WHITEHOUSE Luke 6.5 7.900 0.100 14.300 Q
3 KAZ PATANIN Dmitriy 5.9 8.300 0.000 14.200 Q
4 CROBENOVIC Aurel 6.3 7.833 0.000 14.133 Q
5 BRA GUIMARAES Yuri 5.9 8.200 0.100 14.000 Q
6 CYP CHARI Michalis 5.7 8.200 0.000 13.900 Q
7 FRA OSBERGER Benjamin 5.9 7.933 0.000 13.833 Q
8 UZB MIRVALIEV Abdulaziz 5.6 8.200 0.000 13.800 Q

Ryu Sunghyun has already secured qualification.

The fight for second is down to:

Yahor Sharamkou - 50 points (30+20+0) - finished 19th in qualifying, will score no more points
Benjamin Osberger - 48 points, will drop 14 so 34 points
Aurel Benovic - 35 points, will drop 3 so 32 points
Yuri Guimaraes - 25.5 points

Everyone in the final will get at least 14 points, so with Osberger guaranteed 48 and Benovic 46, Sharamkou's path is pretty narrow.

Pommel Horse:

1 TPE LEE Chih Kai 6.5 8.900 0.000 15.400 Q
2 KAZ KURBANOV Nariman 6.4 8.633 0.000 15.033 Q
3 TPE SHIAO Yu-Jan 6.1 8.900 0.000 15.000 Q
4 IRL MC CLENAGHAN Rhys 6.3 8.666 0.000 14.966 Q
5 JOR ABU AL SOUD Ahmad 6.0 8.800 0.000 14.800 Q
6 VIE DANG Ngoc Xuan Thien 6.1 8.633 0.000 14.733 Q
7 FRA OSBERGER Benjamin 6.0 8.700 0.000 14.700 Q
8 ARMMERDINYAN Harutyun 6.1 8.500 0.000 14.600 Q

Ahmad Abu Al Soud is already qualified. The second spot is down to Kurbanov and Lee

Kurbanov 66 points (30+20+16)
Lee 38 points (30+8+0)

Lee must win and hope that Kurbanov finishes no higher than 5th (If Kurbanov finishes 4th they would tie but I think Kurbanov wins the tiebreak)

 

[J175]

Rings:

1 ARM DAVTYAN Vahagn 6.0 8.733 0.000 14.733 Q
2 ARM AVETISYAN Artur 6.1 8.566 0.000 14.666 Q
3 FRA AIT SAID Samir 6.1 8.433 0.000 14.533 Q
4 AZE SIMONOV Nikita 6.2 8.333 0.000 14.533 Q
5 AUT HOECK Vinzenz 6.1 8.233 0.000 14.333 Q
5 EGY ZAHRAN Ali 6.1 8.233 0.000 14.333 Q
7 PRK JONG Ryong Il 6.2 8.100 0.000 14.300 Q
8 EGY MOHAMED Omar 5.7 8.533 0.000 14.233 Q

The qualification situation is unchanged, everyone who could still qualify made the final and is still in it.

Samir Ait Said 73 (18) - will guarantee qualification with third in Doha
Nikita Simonov 64 (16) - will guarantee qualification with a win in Doha
Jong Ryong Il 56 (10) - must finish at least 4th in Doha to have a chance
Vahagn Davtyan 45 (0) - must finish at least third in Doha
Artur Avetisyan 38 (0) - must win in Doha
Omar Mohamed 37 (0) - must win in Doha

Even though they can drop the zero, the Armenians are hurt by missing Baku because they couldn't take points off anyone else.

Ait Said can only lose out if Davtyan or Jong wins in Doha with Simonov second and himself fourth or lower, and then it'd go to a tiebreak between Ait Said and Simonov.

 

[Denn]

thank you for the analysis. I really want Lee Chih-Kai to go to the Olympics.

 

[Ginger]

If my math is correct we'll have a tiebreak between Tsitavets and Westlund if the former is 2nd and the latter ends up last (meaning 5th).
If that happens, Westlund would win the tiebreak as she placed 6th, 11th and 14th so far, while Tsitavets was 32nd, 2nd and 37th.
So the only path for Tsitavets is to win and pray that Westlund is no better than 3rd.

 

[ArnoldRimmer]

Anyone following today?

Malabuyo is on a nail biter with floor. She's in 7th at the moment, with 12.533 and 5 left to go. Ruby Evans is still to come and is likely to pass her. Not sure who else. I think she's got to make the final in order to stay in the race?

eta- 8th now.... and Ruby plus Laura Casabuena to come.

 

[RedBirdie]

I think Laura Casabuena is the only one that can pass Emma. Sevagi Kayisoglu could have, but she had a disaster on floor and is currently 17th, so no points. I might be wrong, but Emma currently has 69 points, and the only person I can mathematically get to surpass that is Laura.

ETA; Emma's now in 9th, so she'll finish the series with 69 points. To qualify for the Olympic, she needs Laura to finish no higher than 3rd in the finals among point-eligible gymnasts. It's gonna be a nail biter.

 

[ArnoldRimmer]

I think Laura Casabuena is the only one that can pass Emma. Sevagi Kayisoglu could have, but she had a disaster on floor and is currently 17th, so no points. I might be wrong, but Emma currently has 69 points, and the only person I can mathematically get to surpass that is Laura.

ETA; Emma's now in 9th, so she'll finish the series with 69 points. To qualify for the Olympic, she needs Laura to finish no higher than 3rd in the finals among point-eligible gymnasts. It's gonna be a nail biter.

Definitely!

These are the finalists. Everyone but Nemour, Evans and Barzasi is eligible for points. It really could go either way.

1	ALG	NEMOUR Kaylia	5.6	8.000	0.100	13.500	Q
2	GBR	EVANS Ruby	5.4	7.866	0.000	13.266	Q
3	SWE	WILLIAMS Jennifer	5.1	8.033	0.000	13.133	Q
4	ESP	CASABUENA Laura	5.0	8.066	0.000	13.066	Q
5	AUT	MOERZ Charlize	5.5	7.733	0.300	12.933	Q
6	KAZ	BAUYRZHANOVA Aida	5.0	7.800	0.000	12.800	Q
7	EGY	MAHMOUD Jana	5.1	7.633	0.000	12.733	Q
8	ITA	BARZASI Chiara	5.3	7.533	0.100	12.733	Q

 

[ArnoldRimmer]

Nemour just got 14.6 on beam, and has upgraded floor too. If she ever gets a DTY, she's so going to be the world AA champion.

 

[RedBirdie]

Casabuena also has the potential to qualify via beam. Current WC points:

Rank	Athlete	Nation	EGY	GER	AZE	QAT	Total
1	Nina Derwael	Belgium	30	30	30		90
2	Ting Hua-Tien	Taiwan	8	16	25		49
3	Erika Pinxten	Belgium	25	20	—		45
4	Jennifer Williams	Sweden	16	25	—		41
5	Laura Casabuena	Spain	—	18	18		36
6	Yelizaveta Hubareva	Ukraine	18	10	—		28
7	Tina Zelcic	Croatia	—	14	12		26
	Aida Bauyrzhanova	Kazakhstan	—	12	14		26
9	Lai Pin-Ju	Taiwan	20	—	—		20

Ting Hua-Tien finished 9th in Doha, so no finals for her. She will get 12 points, replacing her 8, bringing her total to 53. Casabuena needs to finish at least 4th of the point-eligible gymnasts to qualify via beam.

I don't know the procedure if Casabuena qualified on beam and floor to determine which event she qualified on and which event they would then go to the third place finisher.