US Olympic Team Trials - June 24-27, 2021

[Doug1233]

WWGym Judging Panel Spreadsheet is here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Na4VJ_GfPgNNsYf8u_f4jPFscKysZbxKenKjBEWLrSo/edit#gid=1287127031

Watch us judge LIVE.

As always, anyone who wants to join in judging please PM me your email (if you don’t already have edit access).

Also, a birdie told me that when USAG publishes its scores online, the data set can be downloaded such that the 4 USAG judges individual E Scores can be seen. So J1 through J4 will be used once we have access to this data. But for now, for the lovely person who always enters in the USAG scores (@makam I think it’s you?) please could you put the USAG average E Score into the “J1” column.

 

[makam]

With regards to the 4th team member, Spencer did a breakdown and it is all pretty even across all options. So, I’d pick whoever is most consistent across each even over the 2 days (with some consideration to Nationals results). Someone who finishes 3rd but had 2 falls obviously has higher potential, but the US is predicted to destroy the competition so those extra 10ths don’t matter as much to me as someone who doesn’t fall but maybe doesn’t have any spectacular events.

Yeah, maximize medals but Simone, Suni, and Jade have it all basically covered (aside from BB where anything can and does happen so it isn’t worth giving someone a spot on the team just for beam). And yeah Skinner can add a few padding 10ths to the team score, she can also fall on every apparatus (though props to her for taking her terrible looking PT vaults and turning them competition ready in just a few days).

Having a steady freddy as a backup on every event counts more to me than burying the competition. So if Grace is back in form, Kayla keeps it all together, Emma keeps succeeding despite Texas Nightmares, or Leanne brings the consistency, pick one even if they won’t make any EFs. Kyla Ross didn’t make any event finals and it was just fine. Jade and Riley for the +1 spots.

 

[Dex]

My pre-trials dream team is Simone, Suni, Jordan, Grace….
Individuals Jade and Riley….

 

[ucrgirl]

2 Does Riley beat Simone on bars, and thus become Top 2 UB?
3 Does Skinner beat Jade on vault, and thus become Top 2 VT?

• If answer to 2 and 3 above is yes, then compare Riley UB and Skinner VT, and see who’s more likely to win a medal using latest international scores.

The only wrinkle is that Jade’s ankle may not be at full strength at trials (and why rush since her spot is secure). Jade probably will be at full strength by Tokyo, I hope. It seems silly to take both Skinner and Jade as +1’s if it is just an internal competition for a vault event final spot (although possibly either could medal). But, you are right that Skinner could make a strong case . . . Riley hitting strong bars routines would solve a lot of problems.

 

[Seyonne]

Looks like the women’s technical committee voted to allow women to wear shorts in competition.

 

[Seyonne]

It occurs to me that this may just be usa gymnastics and not FIG.

 

[MRR]

Except if Riley is top 4 AA, which is doable if bars pulls her up high in the AA and she survives everything else. On the one hand, she’s not an ideal main team member as far as health, rounding out vault, complementing Lee, and having several AA comps under her belt. But she’s also likely on the highest scoring team with a low 15 bars, mid 14 vault/beam and high 13 floor, which was doable at least before the injury. A 4th at Trials would be an interesting test of how Tom is willing to go on rank order, especially as there isn’t an obvious +1 complement to Jade who ISN’T Riley.

 

[ucrgirl]

Is Riley expected to do AA at this meet? I hadn’t heard anything and assumed she was still limited to bars.

 

[QuietColours]

She’s listed as doing AA on the start lists

 

[MRR]

Unless she’s physically incapable, I can’t see Riley not trying AA. She has no bid for the main team otherwise.

 

[dweiss324]

If Riley makes the main team, you HAVE to take Skinner for the other +1 spot, don’t you??

 

[rue_des_plantes]

Why, though? All Skinner is good for so far is a high DTY-equivalent on vault, and EF backup for a weaker field. She needs to bring AA to make the team or be a +1, unless Biles or Carey have an injury problem.

If McCusker makes the main team, I’d think the +1 would almost assuredly be the next-best AA’er who doesn’t make the team, which would be both justified and anticlimactic. We’d be deprived of knowing what Forster would have done if Lee and McCusker were low in the AA but hitting UB/BB, which is what a lot of the rank order discourse boils down to.

Who was it that predicted on the old forum that Carey would finish fifth at Stuttgart Trials and thus leave all our speculation about an EF bid bombing the AA completely unresolved? @ArnoldRimmer? It would be like that.

 

[irichluck21]

Nah. I think it would go to McCallum or Wong as AA but also with a potential to make beam finals, the one place where it is more likely to be able to make it to the event final, as beam is beam and Suni hasn’t been the most reliable on this event.

As it is Biles and Carey will make vault over Skinner and you have Chiles who has two vaults and is supposedly upgrading them at Olympic Trials. A DTT and Amanar would give her a 5.6 and 5.8 so good enough as a vault final back up and could potentially medal if she were to make it in.

 

[ArnoldRimmer]

Yes I did! But I also thought Hurd was going to be on the team, so you might still want to keep a pinch of salt handy for any other revelations I might have.

Fwiw I don’t see much point in Skinner as an individual unless Carey’s ankle is a lot worse than we understood. If anything, she makes more sense on the team because there is a good chance she’ll be in the highest scoring lineup. Not the way I’d do it, but there’s a clear rationale there at least.

 

[rue_des_plantes]

Running data on Nationals spreadsheet now. Hope to have something in an hour or so

 

[YurchenkoLoop]

According to this youtube video, Forster is intending on selecting the other 2 gymnasts to the team with the help of ProScore system which essentially calculates the best scoring team.



I would think McCusker’s chances to make the 4-person team are better this way than taking into account her AA total, considering her injured status. She’s feeling locked for at least the +1 barring disaster at Trials.

 

[makam]

So dumb. The most consistent highest scoring team should be their aim. China or Russia on their best day might be able to beat the US on their worst but those chances increase if he puts a one-hit-wonder on the team. Using the scores from domestic judges. I mean, what if they give Eater a 15.7 on bb one night. Bam, highest scoring team member–with a score that will never be repeated.

 

[emmade]

Eaker should not be in the conversation at all, imo. She has not been well received internationally on her signature event, so surely the selection committee is not dumb enough to place her on the team. They should just have Chellsie decide the team.

 

[irichluck21]

You never know what will happen with Eaker, but yeah she’s being outscored by multiple others and was 5th at Nationals behind Biles, Lee, McCallum (who is 4 for 4 on beam this year), and Chiles.
Eaker has been inconsistent on this event and she has demonstrated that she is not team finals worthy on any other event but beam.

I would want the 4th person to be able to do all around in team finals if needed. Replacing Lee on VT/FX and Chiles on UB/BB if necessary, though really a team of Biles, Lee, and Chiles would easily win team finals with all 3 doing the all around.

 

[glamafonic]

According to this youtube video, Forster is intending on selecting the other 2 gymnasts to the team with the help of ProScore system which essentially calculates the best scoring team.

He only mentioned the software as one of the tools they had to help them consider all the options for the team after someone asked him if he was just going to go by AA rank. The gymternet subsequently ran with it and decided that he’s just going to plug in scores and take whoever the program says even though there’s no actual reason to believe that’s the case.

If I had to bet, barring no major shifts, he’s just going to take the 4th ranking AAer because the 4th member mostly doesn’t matter and the optics of taking the 4th ranked person for the 4-member team are likely to be extremely attractive to him and USAG currently.

I doubt a handful of extra tenths in team finals that won’t matter at all are going to seem like enough of a reason to get scrutinized for skipping down the list.