Personally, I wouldn’t put Riley on the main team. I think you want someone a little more … robust. Even if it means losing a few tenths on bars.
This +1 Olympic spot is really in Riley’s hands. If she can get a 15 on both nights of Trials, I can’t see how they can’t take her. Who else is there who’s in medal contention on an event that won’t already be 2-per’d by the “Big 3 + Jade”?
Kara, no. Kayla, no. Shilese, no.
The only competition I can see is … Skinner, who could legitimately beat Jade in VT prelims and make EF.
My pre-Trials team prediction is now:
Main Team: Simone, Suni, Jordan and then Leanne v Grace
+1: Riley v Skinner
+1: Jade
Five Alternates: Whoever misses out on the two underlined spots. + Kara. + the next 2 AA gymnasts (probably two out of Shilese, DiCello and Malabuyo).
The scores to watch at Trials are:
- Who wins in the AA, across both days, out of Leanne and Grace? Is there a big difference between them on combined VT/FX scores? Leanne v Grace on FX will be very interesting.
- Does Riley beat Simone on bars, and thus become Top 2 UB?
- Does Skinner beat Jade on vault, and thus become Top 2 VT?
- If answer to 2 and 3 above is yes, then compare Riley UB and Skinner VT, and see who’s more likely to win a medal using latest international scores.
I think we need to get ready for the fact that Skinner is absolutely going to be at least one of the 5 alternates on this team. I doubt she will make the main team, but she absolutely could get the +1 if she vaults better than Jade and if Riley doesn’t have a great weekend on bars. Her vaults are too good to ignore; Morgan and Kara completely failed to deliver; and Grace, Leanne, DiCello, Malabuyo and Shilese all have limited EF potential which makes them less useful for the +1 spot (
read Bailey Key 2015 and Maggie Nichols 2016).