It’s an interesting thought. Goes without saying that there are occasions both likely would’ve scored lower. But I think they both were impacted differently by being Americans, and Raisman got more benefits from it.
Aly barely ever got 2 per’d out of anything, which is the main downside of being from the US. I think it was just the 2015 AA and the odd beam final. Looking at her major individual achievements, she’d have been up against Gabby in the Rio AA and might well have lost to her, but Mustafina and Shang Chungsong put up such a half arsed display that there’s no way that wouldn’t have been bronze. The London floor final is more interesting because there was more competition. I think we worked out on here at the time that the judges couldn’t have applied all the artistry deductions they could’ve and her still come out with 9.1? Although fuck knows that wasn’t a tightly scored final.
Skinner, I think would actually have won more medals were she not from the US. She wouldn’t be a world champion, but as she could usually stand up both an Amanar and a Cheng for the majority of her international career, she’d have got on most teams for that. And in several of the finals during her career, that would’ve been enough for bronze: she probably wouldn’t have done NCAA either meaning we’re looking at a longer period. So it’s how you weigh one world title against multiple world bronze medals.