Are China still in the big three?

[MaryClare]

I haven’t been a moderator since around 2012. This is not me “coming for you”. It’s practically affection. Pulling someone up for “disrespectful” remarks is Chinese Communist Party 101. I have zero issue with you toeing the party line, I’m literally employed by the Russian state.

 

[MaryClare]

If the rest of the membership had my ad algorithms, they’d all be paying for a red rocket too

 

[makam]

Sadly, the last few years have been plagued by gymnasts who never reached their potential (or don’t seem like they ever will). Even USA looks to be leaning heavily on veterans staying healthy and coming back as strong as they used to be–how many Jrs or early-career Seniors are any of us putting on prospective Olympic (or even Worlds) teams? I don’t think it is a bad direction for the sport to have so many long-term competitors but remember when it was almost crazy for a gymnast to make 2 Olympic teams from one of the top countries? Ou might be talented as crap but in the past, the inability to deliver would relegate her to the backup team.

 

[MaryClare]

There’s been quite a bit of discussion about how Covid restrictions particularly affected the development of juniors in Western Europe, especially in Great Britain where junior elite athletes (of all sports) were classified as recreational participants and could not train for nearly 9 months.

But China had some very severe and long lasting restrictions on the general population. What was the impact of this for gymnastics?

 

[Bob]

The problem we had in the UK was that even when the very few GB squad members were allowed to resume training other gymnasts weren’t. So the young gymnasts coming up lost 18 months of real training. There was no spotting allowed etc for a long time. No real competitions either. That has led to dent in the flow of gymnasts coming through and damage to the progress of those turning junior and senior now. All completely understandable and the right thing to do at the time. But a lasting effect.

 

[gymfan]

The major issue is consistency. Most teams would count at least one fall in team final, and CHN team is more inconsistent than other teams. Also, vault is a steady event for most gymnasts, but CHN capitualizes more on high risk events. The upper bound is very high, but the lower bound can be also very low.

 

[Doug1233]

What happened to Ou’s bars in Tokyo? She repeated a Toe Shap I think?

 

[RedBirdie]

No matter how much China is banking on big D scores on bars and beam to make up the deficit (which only works if gymnasts don’t fall all over the place), when you’re putting up multiple FTYs that can’t even break a 9.0 E score, you’re already in a hole. Add to that, they were the only team that made finals at 2022 worlds that failed to produce at least one 14+ vault in any phase of competition. And on floor they are consistently putting up routines that score in the 12s. There’s absolutely no room for error. One bad bars or beam routine and they’re out of the medals. It’s an insane strategy, yet one China seems to be all in on.

 

[RedBirdie]

Yep, two tow shaps. And incredibly labored
Qualifications



Team Finals

 

[gymfan]

It’s a strategy to maximum gold medal on individual events, given that the whole team is qualified.

 

[Passion]

It’s really not the strategy at all. It’s not like they’re saying oh well fuck vault who cares, we got bars and beam. They’re actively trying to learn harder vaults. It’s why they’re paying Paseka and Nabieva (and their translators) to work with the National Team right now.

Different coaches are good at coaching different things and unfortunately the coaches who were better at coaching vault (Lu and Xiong) left after 2012 and 2016.

These gymnasts come from different provinces with different sets of coaches, then are in different coaching groups when they get to the National Team. All these coaches are competing against each other. It’s not one hive mind saying “we will only put effort in on UB/BB.” They’re all trying to win and get their gymnasts on teams.

In regards to covid, it depended on where you were. The National Team was still able to train but no new gymnasts were able to be added to the National Team for nearly two years. Different provinces were in different levels of lockdown at different times. The biggest problem from covid is no one was able to compete regularly for two+ years. That’s a lot of experience lost.

 

[Passion]

Also 2019 was a Kramarenko situation where ONE gymnast tanked the entire team. China qualified in 2nd place. In the team final Liu Tingting fell twice on bars and once on beam. Everyone else hit. If you keep her beam fall and just replace her TF UB score with her Qual score, China wins silver over Russia. That’s not an ‘entire program in decline’ situation. They left '19 with a silver AA, silver BB, and bronze BB.

China isn’t going anywhere. They will always have money to pour into the program and plenty of gymnasts coming up. It’s not a Romania situation where they drop off completely. I’d compare it more to Russia in the years between Khorkina and Mustafina. Russia didn’t win a single medal at 2005 Worlds. Only medal in '06 was team bronze. Only medal in '07 was Semenova UB. They didn’t win a single medal on anything in '08 or '09. They changed coaches, got better funding, and turned things around.

China has the funding. Now that they’ve mostly dropped covid restrictions and can move people around more freely (new coaches and gymnasts on the Nat Team, more international competitions) I expect them to remain comfortably near the top and winning medals at Worlds/Olympics next quad. Unlike Russia, China WAG has still medaled at every single Worlds and Olympics since 2002.

 

[IratePanda]

Yes, and Luo Rui cited this as a reason for her colossal meltdown at last year’s Worlds. She wasn’t used to the noisy crowds after two years of competing in empty stadiums–when she competed at all. Even now, the stands at Nationals seem quite empty (although congregate spaces elsewhere in China are increasingly jam-packed).

 

[IratePanda]

Well, but then came 2022, when Tang Xijing and Luo Rui counted how many falls between them? Tang Xijing shouldn’t have been competing at all. She was reportedly quite injured. Luo Rui simply choked, and her results at Nationals suggest that she still hasn’t bounced back.

Despite my pessimism, I do want to point out a few bright spots. Ou Yushan looks pretty good right now. She scored 14.0 (5.8/8.2) on FX in today’s team finals and also broke 14 to lead Guangdong to a decisive victory over Zhejiang and Shanghai. Wu Ran also performed well. The two Zhangs from Zhejiang, Xinyi and Qingying, also had good days. Someone upthread (@YurchenkoLoop , I think) suggested that Zhang Qingying would make the Worlds team with Zhang Xinyi as the alternate, but I think it might be the other way around. Zhang Xinyi outscored Zhang Qingying by more than a point today, and, to my mind at least, seems a bit more polished overall. (I really like her BB and FX.)

Ou Yushan is undeniably talented, and her mental game seems to be improving. She’s not fully healthy right now, and she’s still kicking some major ass at Nationals. It’s a shame that injuries and bad coaching disrupted her career. She did pull more than her weight at Worlds last year. I guess I’m willing to give her another chance. (I was afraid she might be the second coming of Huang Qiushuang, but she clearly isn’t.)

And then there’s Qiu Qiyuan, who didn’t compete today because the Fujian team didn’t qualify to TF. Her UB and BB are…I’m going to stop myself right there lest I unleash something terrible into the universe.

 

[MaryClare]

I don’t think China’s problems are the same as what Russia experienced 2005-2009 which was largely caused by the departure of Leonid Arkaev, lack of funding and adjusting to the open code. The gymnasts who turned senior during that quad were without doubt the deepest and most talented Russia has ever had. The decision to hire Nabieva and Paseka is a little bizarre, there are coaches in China who can coach vault to a high standard, why would you not bring in some of the MAG coaches? In Nabieva’s defence though (I’ve never seen Paseka coach) she has the makings of a very good coach, has superb technical knowledge. She was taught by the very best. Vera Kiryashova is one of very few FIG Brevet 1 judges in the world

China seem to have made a choice and gone for a particular strategy, which may have worked in the past but hasn’t now for some time and decisions seem to be made based upon politics rather than gymnastics. Covid definitely hasn’t helped, but China puts itself at a disadvantage by training in library-like national and regional training centres. Whereas US elites will have trained alongside mommy and me, birthday parties and every bit of high school drama brought in by the optionals team

 

[YurchenkoLoop]

You got me with that one MaryClare^, genuinely funny.

Also IratePanda, Idk if I’d agree Wu Ran had a good day. Her beam was good but China is not lacking on that apparatus. Wu sat down her FX dismount, barely rotated her FTY, and her bars are not up to par still. I’m so hopeful for her, though. You’re right about Zhang Xinyi, her beam composition is excellent. When she hits that sideways split jump 1/2 + Yurchenko loop!!! And the front pike + straddle + FF is fantastic

 

[IratePanda]

On the junior side, Qin Xinyi and Tian Zhuofan are quite good.

 

[RichardL]

Is Shang Chunsong under consideration for international assignments? She’s basically regained her old form and is performing quite powerfully on floor, for example. Crazy that her 4th place AA finish in Rio was almost seven years ago, which of course she accomplished while still having the lowest score of the competition on vault…

 

[Passion]

Is Shang Chunsong under consideration for international assignments?

No, she’s going to university and competing for the provincial team.

 

[RichardL]

I get that, but what I mean is, does the Chinese system preclude her from being considered for those reasons? If she’s theoretically making a 5-person team based on scores, is she literally not allowed to be chosen because she’s not competing for the national team?