US Classic Session 2 thread

[Sasha]

I'm surprised by how many people are ready to put Blakely and Lee on their teams at this point. I love both and would be happy to see either make it, but Blakely needs to show more consistency, and Lee needs to show a full hit bars routine. If Blakely can string together a series of hits (or even near hits) between now and Trials, I think she could be a favourite, but I'm not ready to go there after one good competition, given her history. I was very impressed by Lee last night (I thought someone said she wasn't training floor??), but bars is where the money is for her. I'm looking forward to seeing how both look in a couple of weeks.

Simone and Shilese are locks, but the other three positions remain question marks in my head. I can narrow it down to a top 8 (including S & S), but no more than that at this point.

 

[Rich]

I am not couting dicello out. Kelly does a good job pacing her gymnasts to peak at the right moment. I still have faith in her.

 

[Denn]

@tsarinajen and @Sasha : Are you really questioning whether Suni can do a competitive bars routine? Isn't the question only whether it will be the killer exercise with the Jaeger full? If she can't master that, she's got all kinds of options for more reliable exercises.

@Sasha Also, why are you discounting Lee's beam as being sufficient to put her on the team?

ETA: By the way, we're arguing, but I appreciate the dialogue from you both and everyone else, too.

 

[lovegymnasts]

@tsarinajen and @Sasha : Are you really questioning whether Suni can do a competitive bars routine? Isn't the question only whether it will be the killer exercise with the Jaeger full? If she can't master that, she's got all kinds of options for more reliable exercises.

@Sasha Also, why are you discounting Lee's beam as being sufficient to put her on the team?

There is a reason she hasn't shown/competed it yet.

 

[ucrgirl]

I feel like THE biggest question to answer is this:

Given a 4-person base team of Biles, Jones, Lee, and Carey, who can regularly beat the top 3 on each apparatus listed below?

VT Simone, Jade, Shilese
UB Shilese, Suni*, Simone
BB Suni, Simone, Shilese
FX Simone, Shilese, Jade

I honestly don't see anyone doing it at this point. So it makes more sense to take an AAer as the 5th person. Jordan fits that.


*I know we haven't seen Suni's bars yet, but she's a multi-medalist, and she's capable of an "easy" routine that is still better than everyone else's except Shi's. Probably better than a theoretical Douglas, too.

I think your base team makes sense even if Suni doesn't do bars. She is really good on beam and brings .8 to the team over the Skye based on classics scores. Skye can do better on beam but she can also be a lot worse.

Beam specialists are risky but Suni is a proven competitor.

 

[Denn]

There is a reason she hasn't shown/competed it yet.

Yes, but the reason is that she's working a mega-hard element never done by anyone, the Jaeger-full, likely in combination.

If it's not consistent by Trials, don't you think she and Graba will have the sense to take it out and do a reliable routine that gets her onto the team? They have shown good judgment when it mattered many times in the past — they know how to calculate risks.

 

[Denn]

I think your base team makes sense even if Suni doesn't do bars. She is really good on beam and brings .8 to the team over the Skye based on classics scores. Skye can do better on beam but she can also be a lot worse.

Beam specialists are risky but Suni is a proven competitor.

Thank you! I'll also add that Suni herself could possibly score higher on beam. She had a major break on the Switch ring. Change that to a 0.1 balance check, and she's scoring near 15.

With the new mount and new dismount, she's better on beam than she ever was.

 

[Puffin]

@tsarinajen and @Sasha : Are you really questioning whether Suni can do a competitive bars routine? Isn't the question only whether it will be the killer exercise with the Jaeger full? If she can't master that, she's got all kinds of options for more reliable exercises.

@Sasha Also, why are you discounting Lee's beam as being sufficient to put her on the team?

ETA: By the way, we're arguing, but I appreciate the dialogue from you both and everyone else, too.

I don't think people are questioning her ability to do ub - more whether her health issues are going to impact her ability to hit in the day. She has not done many competitions and her Winter Cup results were UB-11.8 and BB-12.9.

Will she find the consistency she needs in the weeks that remain.

I am not sure why she continues to train vt - and fty is not going to get her on the team whereas a consistent ub would

 

[Sasha]

@tsarinajen and @Sasha : Are you really questioning whether Suni can do a competitive bars routine? Isn't the question only whether it will be the killer exercise with the Jaeger full? If she can't master that, she's got all kinds of options for more reliable exercises.

@Sasha Also, why are you discounting Lee's beam as being sufficient to put her on the team?

ETA: By the way, we're arguing, but I appreciate the dialogue from you both and everyone else, too.

Well if she can, why hasn't she? I think that Douglas has very unfortunately demonstrated the big difference between hitting killer combos in training, and putting it all together in competition.

I think the argument for taking her based on last night's beam is a stronger one at this point, but I maybe I weigh versatility higher than you do - I tend to look across events and ask myself if a gymnast could fill a gap outside of their specialties, if need be. If we assume that Lee's strongest competition as a bars/beam athlete is Blakely, the latter brings in higher potential scores on both floor and vault if she hits (I know).

So yeah, I still want to see Lee's bars. I'm not discounting her by any means, but I need more information.

 

[Passion]

I am not sure why she continues to train vt - and fty is not going to get her on the team whereas a consistent ub would

She wants to do all around again as a personal goal to show herself she was able to overcome her medical issues.

 

[lovegymnasts]

Yes, but the reason is that she's working a mega-hard element never done by anyone, the Jaeger-full, likely in combination.

If it's not consistent by Trials, don't you think she and Graba will have the sense to take it out and do a reliable routine that gets her onto the team? They have shown good judgment when it mattered many times in the past — they know how to calculate risks.

Yeah and as Gabby has shown, you need to compete it in pressure situations and give yourself opportunities to miss to get to a consistency you want. Don't wait to the last minute.
Also like with Gabby, I'll believe it when I see it.

 

[david]

Jordan Chiles and Skye Blakely have both competed in two World/Olympic team finals for USA.

Chiles’ lowest counting TF score is 11.700
Blakely’s lowest counting TF score is 13.266

Both have fallen on two routines in Quals.
Both have fallen on one routine in a Team Final.

Here's how many routines each of them have competed and hit in quals and finals.

Jordan TF: 7/8
Skye TF: 1/2

Jordan Quals: 6/8
Skye Quals: 3/5

If we look at this through the lens of who you'd want in a clutch position in an olympic/world team final that can step in anywhere, Jordan has one of the strongest track records and has competed more TF routines than everyone competing currently other than Simone, Gabby and Shilese. Of the others, only Suni has experience in an Olympic team final.

 

[dweiss324]

I'd be happy taking the trio of jade, Jordan, and Suni to complement Simone and Shi, I didn't arrive at that conclusion as quickly and surely as some of you did, but there's so much depth, experience, maturity, NCAA experience, experience with high profile exposure, etc. There really isn't much time for anyone else to make that strong a case.

You don't even need Sunis bars for TFs, but you'd love to have them in EFs if they materialize. And that's a chance this team can easily afford to take. The
only event Skye scored top 5 on was vault of all things (fifth)

 

[CameliasFingerpaint]

The most disappointing thing about Gabby is that with her current skill selection minus the horrendous dance elements, she would be a no-brainer for the team if she was hitting her sets.

 

[Laura722]

This is just training, but I think Suni can get through an UB routine. Now can she do it in a competition with 3 others events is the question.

 

[RedBirdie]

The most disappointing thing about Gabby is that with her current skill selection minus the horrendous dance elements, she would be a no-brainer for the team if she was hitting her sets.

Right? A watered down but hittable bar routine, beam without rings, and floor with tumbling she can do and ditching the highly questionable dance elements, and she would be in the thick of it. Instead, we've seen she can't do bars, her floor construction is shockingly bad, and beam is marred by the rings.

I don't get it. Nothing about it screams any real, strategic thought went into skill selection and construction.

 

[CameliasFingerpaint]

Right? A watered down but hittable bar routine, beam without rings, and floor with tumbling she can do and ditching the highly questionable dance elements, and she would be in the thick of it. Instead, we've seen she can't do bars, her floor construction is shockingly bad, and beam is marred by the rings.

I don't get it. Nothing about it screams any real, strategic thought went into skill selection and construction.

It’s as if she’s completely lost without the hyper-structure of Martha.

 

[Laura722]

It wasn't all Martha though. She thrived under Chow and did well enough under other coaches in 2015/2016.

I don't understand why Valeri didn't take those rings out or wasn't told to do so.

I think Gabby needs several more months of conditioning to be able to put all of her routines out there with what she had planned.

 

[makam]

It’s as if she’s completely lost without the hyper-structure of Martha.

yeah but her coach isn't exactly a novice either. I realize with an adult gymnast you can't exactly "make" them do anything but Valeri should get a judge to lay out exactly where she is gaining and losing points. Doing a ring leap on BB for ego is stupid as hell if it is a net loss in points. Not everyone has to go into each event with a 6+ D score if you can get your E score to the high 8s (though to be fair, there isn't enough e score differentiation in competition so I can see why so many attempt to max out their D scores)

 

[tsarinajen]

Yeah and as Gabby has shown, you need to compete it in pressure situations and give yourself opportunities to miss to get to a consistency you want. Don't wait to the last minute.
Also like with Gabby, I'll believe it when I see it.

Suni decided for whatever reason — petition options perhaps? — not to do bars here. If she had an easy bar set ready to go, she decided not to do it. I’m just wondering why she gets a pass here. If she can do it, great, show it. We’ve seen Gabby hit in training too… but she didn’t.

And for the record, I’m hoping they’re both magical at nationals. I’m a sucker for a comeback…no matter how illogical they might have been… but I’ve been around long enough to know most don’t work out for whatever reason.

So here’s to Suni showing up with a good usable bar set. She hits 2 at nationals, and she’s 2/3 this season.