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I reeeeeeaaaaallllllyyyy wonder how Douglas is doing. She’s such an unknown — and she has abandoned social media completely (which I resonate with, as I don’t post anywhere but here basically).

Honestly, if everything goes even pretty well for her, and she stays healthy, she has such a wide bag of tricks that she could be a serious contender not only for the team, but for the Olympic AA title.

Judging favors strong execution, and with the right skill selection and coaching, she’s super capable of 8.5 or higher on floor and beam and 9.0 or higher on bars or vault. (And I really mean that about her bars. The judges used to LOVE her execution on bars. Look at 2016.)
 
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In this hypothetical I’d still take DiCello over Roberson because DiCello’s DTY probably outscores Roberson’s “Mustafina”, and I’m not confident in using Blakely in prelims on UB given she scored a 12.566 last year
 
If she can get her 2015 DTY back, her 2016 UB back, and a low difficulty high execution/artistry beam and floor (as in, counting B split jumps on beam and B switch leaps on floor), then she’s definitely in the hunt for a team spot. She only ever got herself in trouble with things like Memmels and Gogeans on floor. Literally just cut them out and count Bs.

I think Olympic AA champion is a stretch though.

But literally no-one on Earth in 2017 would have Gabby Douglas on their 2023 World Team predictions. It would have blown all our minds.
 
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Have we tried cooking up exercises for her yet? I can’t remember.
 


Cut out: front pike, switch half, and switch ring — deductions will be too heavy to justify.

back full F
BHS + BHS + layout stepout C + .1 (new, but doable)
full spin (not the L spin.)
switch split C
front tuck D
front aerial + split + straddle D + B + B + .2
BHS BHS + double pike E + .1 series bonus
lots of real choreo (would be a big change for her)

This is super short, and her split position is so good, that if she really danced well, she could score 8.7ish, I think.
D-score: 5.5
E-score: 8.5

Total score: 14.0

Hm…
 
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Someone posted this. Hmm… I think the E-scores will be a bit lower and some of these elements are not worth doing.



 
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A Douglas return would make Roberson’s already slim Olympic chances nonexistent. Her UB potential alone would shoot her up into the top group pool. She was always such a solid AAer that she can fill in gaps depending upon the rest of the team. Say it’s Carey, Chiles, Jones, and Lee, then you only really need Gabby’s FX/VT for qualifications and use her on UB/BB and maybe VT leadoff in TFs.

While Olympic AA champion is a little out there, she could definitely end up in silver or bronze position. It depends on if Andrade finally gets control of her landings and whatever Lee does.

And as an aside, I would just love to see Douglas’ back full on beam again.
 
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8.7E on beam is virtually impossible. There are just too many possible deductions like rhythm on connection, pause, adjustment, artistry other than form etc. But totally agree with this routine construction. In fact, many gymnasts would better off counting 1-2 B’s or even A.
 
I’m going to confess that, as much as I want Andrade to be the Olympic AA champion (and wanted it in 2021 as well), I feel like that’s a lot to ask for. I mean, she hasn’t injured a leg in years. I feel like we’re on borrowed time!
 
I wouldn’t be surprised if Douglas eyed a return to competition by looking at the huge deficit that the US has in terms of their third counting bars score (assuming Jones and Lee are in the line-up) and that she’s an AAer that would be more useful than Zoe Miller in terms of team construction. If she can score 14.5+ on bars and is doing solid routines elsewhere, it’s hard to ignore her value to the team.
 
Yeah, I struggle to even theoretically rule out anyone who’s training and might bring in a big bars score.
 
When are the African Championships?

Nemour can begin FIG sanctioned events for Algeria starting July 2023.
 
So she is out for this year.
At least Nemour will be eligible for both the 2024 World Cup apparatus qualification to Paris as well as the 2024 Continental quota qualification.

She will likely be in Paris, whether through bars through the apparatus qualification or through all around qualification at the 2024 African Championships.
 
Kind of a tangent, but 15.3 with a 6.8 D means she got an E score of 8.55. That seems wildly high to me. I saw numerous form breaks, and I see a lot less than the judges. It’s an awesome routine, but hopefully she can clean up the execution a bit.
 
It is from the France league The Top 12, where teams dual each other.
The E scores are often very generous.
 
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