It’s really hard to say. Both China and Russia are historically pretty inconsistent. From about 2006 to 2012 one was always clearly better than the other, and so even with plenty of splatting the results matched that. China could have beaten Russia in 2010, but Russia were still clearly the better team on paper. Then from 2014 onwards, there hasn’t been a TF where one or both didn’t at least attempt to throw a medal away, and which one comes out on top has been determined by consistency.
Russia are going into it with the better recent history, having not lost to China since 2015 TFs (but a fairly stunning loss then) and had a fairly consistent quad, notwithstanding they weren’t amazing in Doha TFs. But it’s not really enough for most of us to trust them, I don’t think.
There’s also the issue that China have sometimes peaked too early in Olympic years in the past. I don’t know if the extra year will make a difference there. We should also consider that they seem to have a bit more strength in depth than Russia at this point. Russia are incredibly reliant on Melnikova, Listunova and Urazova.
Also, I refuse to watch that footage of Ou Yushan fucking up beam in prelims. I want the memory of her PT set to remain untainted by sorrow.