2024 US Nationals WAG Session 2, Day 1

[Laura722]

That was a good competition. I hope day 2 is as good.

 

[Beamer]

The top scores on each event show just how important Jade's FX upgrades and score will be at Trials. If Jade goes top 3 on FX in addition to her top 3 on VT, she'll have a good shot at the team.

But I'd say that Jade doesn't have the luxury this year of waiting until the Games to compete her full FX difficulty. She's got to do it and hit it at Trials. The front layout step out through to the double double and the full-in.

I wouldn't say that Skye's VT rules Jade out. Jade can still add to the VT score in TM finals. But how her Cheng is scored at Trials in relation to the top DTYs will also be critical for her.

 

[RedBirdie]

They usually show up in the PDF they release eventually.

You can find the scores by going through the individual videos USAG posts, too.

Skye: 5.9/9.15/14.15
Joscelyn: 5.0/8.4/13.40
Jordan: 4.8/9.5/14.30
Simone: 5.6/9.35/14.95
Leanne: 4.2/9.0/13.20
Jade: 5.9/9.4/14.40

 

[Caligym]

The top scores on each event show just how important Jade's FX upgrades and score will be a Trials. If Jade goes top 3 on FX in addition to her top 3 on VT, she'll have a good shot at the team.

But I'd say that Jade doesn't have the luxury this year of waiting until the Games to compete her full FX difficulty. She's got to do it and hit it at Trials. The front layout step out through to the double double and the full-in.

I wouldn't say that Skye's VT rules Jade out. Jade can still add to the VT score in TM finals. But how her Cheng is scored at Trials in relation to the top DTYs will also be critical for her.

I think Jade may even have to go top 2, proving she can make event finals to make this team. The AA’s are so good, gaining a tenth as the 3rd score in team finals isn’t enough to justify bringing her. I would say the same about Suni.

 

[RedBirdie]

Two vault average

1. Biles, 15.8/14.95/15.375
2. Blakely, 15.0/14.15/14.575
3. Carey, 14.5/14.4/14.45
4.Chiles, 14.25/14.3/14.225
5t. Wong 14.2/13.2/13.70
5t. Roberson 14.0/13.4/13.70

 

[Caligym]

I just can’t see them reaching down to the 7th or 8th all-arounder unless it’s a guaranteed event medal or gains you 4-5 tenths in team final. Skyes vault means Jade is going to have to show up at trials with an undeniable Olympic fx finals medal contending routine.

 

[RedBirdie]

If Jade shows up with an Amanar, that changes things a bit. She'll likely need to do her full floor difficulty, too

 

[BB12]

If Simone isn't interested in another national title, they should just tell her she can bow out now, she's shown enough, she's on the Olympic team, she can just compete when and what she is comfortable competing. The rest of the time, she should live in bubble wrap.

USAG would kill her if she did that.

Top 2 get guaranteed Olympic spots and with Shi not competing, they wouldn't want 2 spots locked in by neither of their best 2 gymnasts.

 

[RedBirdie]

No, top 2 are guaranteed invites to Trials.

 

[ucrgirl]

USAG would kill her if she did that.

Top 2 get guaranteed Olympic spots and with Shi not competing, they wouldn't want 2 spots locked in by neither of their best 2 gymnasts.

I thought that too two guaranteed a trip to trials.

 

[BB12]

No, top 2 are guaranteed invites to Trials.

I thought that too two guaranteed a trip to trials.

Twitter lied to me!

 

[RedBirdie]

Session 2 playlist. Enjoy alllllllllll the routines!

 

[JaJa]

Just got home from a work event and saw scores. This unsettles things quite a bit -- no? Is Jade no longer a sure thing? Is Suni less secure?

 

[Rebel]

Just got home from a work event and saw scores. This unsettles things quite a bit -- no? Is Jade no longer a sure thing? Is Suni less secure?

Blakely’s vault complicates things. Jade did well, but she didn’t show her full difficulty. I am still hopeful that she will pull it off when she puts it all out there.

 

[makam]

Just...why? Does she do it better in practice because it has never looked good in competition. Kayla isn't one of my front runners but I want her to have a good shot. This is not good.

ETA: Caylor's is also a tragedy.
ETA2: jade's is almost good (hard to tell angle)

 

[Caligym]

Just got home from a work event and saw scores. This unsettles things quite a bit -- no? Is Jade no longer a sure thing? Is Suni less secure?

Like others I have absolutely been a believer in Brian’s ability to peak Jade at the right time. But I am worried they may have underestimated the field here. If 2nd day is same as first and Jade finishes 3rd on vault and 5th on floor…I think she will have to finish top 2 on those events at trials to make the team (unless she is top 4 AA) That leaves no margin for error.

 

[CameliasFingerpaint]

After podium training, I thought this was another boring Olympic cycle of the US team self selecting, but now it’s another

Simone, Skye, Shilese if she is healthy

I’m not convinced by Suni anymore, nor Jade. They need to hit 2 significantly upgraded sets at trials.

But DiCello and Chiles’ dance elements are frightening and are going to get massacred. It is so fucking frustrating that the scores are completely fictional and no one is saying anything.

 

[Beamer]

If the team were picked after Day 1 of Nationals:

(Assuming Shi is healthy and makes the team with her usual scores)

After Simone and Shi, Skye makes the team easily with the numbers she put up today. She not only finished 2nd AA, but she also helps in Team Finals tremendously.

Her vault alone is a huge asset to the team. On UB, BB, and FX, all the top non-Simone scores are bunched up with little separating the athletes, making a 2nd or 3rd place score almost replaceable with a 4th or 5th best score. Not so on VT. Blakely, with her 15.000, is an entire FIVE tenths higher than the next highest single vault score (Carey's 14.500).

Additionally, Skye put up the highest non-Simone BB score. And she finished in 4th on UB, only .1 behind DiCello and Chiles tied for 2nd. By today only, Skye is a mathematical lock.

Next, Kayla easily makes the team not only because she finished 3rd AA (by a large margin over 4th place, and only .200 behind Skye) but because her scores are irreplaceable in TF. She finished tied for second on UB and in sole possession of second on FX. Also, she put up the 4th highest VT score, only .1 behind Jade.

Lastly, she put up the 4th highest BB score, finishing top 4 on all 4 events. Even if you give her a realistic BB score, she's still in good shape as the 5th and 6th highest scores on BB went to Madray Johnson and Hezly Rivera, neither one of whom figure into making the team. Like Skye, Kayla is a mathematical lock using only Day 1 Scores and the selection committee wouldn't be able to not pick her.

The fifth and final spot, however, is wide open. No one gymnast contributes much more than the others in a 3 up, 3 count TF format. The gymnasts who would be in the running after Night 1 are Jade, Suni, Jordan, Leanne, and Tiana. One of Suni and Jade would likely get the last spot based on Day 1.

Suni has a great case being next in line in the AA in 4th. And she finished 3rd on BB. Additionally, she finished 5th on UB, only .1 behind Skye.

Jade also has a good case based on 3 up, 3 count with her third place on VT and her 5th place on FX.

Lastly, if we were to think beyond Day 1 of Nationals to what is likely to come at Trials and the Olympics: Of the gymnasts that would be fighting for the last spot, the two athletes with the most upgrade potential are Suni (UB) and Jade (FX and VT). Moreover, Suni and Jade are probably the most likely of this group to win an EF medal.

Of course a lot can change with 3 more nights of competition, but these are how things stand with the first of four nights behind us.

 

[MaryClare]

As I see it

Stock up:
Blakely
DiCello

Stock down:
Chiles
Carey

Team prediction:
Biles, Jones, Blakely, Carey, Lee

I don’t agree that it’s impossible to leave DiCello out based on that performance. She doesn’t add enough on any event. She is decent AA back up, but Carey can also do that whilst being a medal contender on vault

 

[Sasha]

As I see it

Stock up:
Blakely
DiCello

Stock down:
Chiles
Carey

That was my take away. But no one locked themselves in last night, or took themselves out.