2024 US Nationals WAG Session 2, Day 1

[CameliasFingerpaint]

The thing that photo set doesn't capture is just how flat Simone's Cheng is. There just no amplitude to that vault, just a really remarkable amount of distance. Skye's went up.

Simone’s Cheng has always been my least favorite skill of hers. I’m glad the YDP is here to stay and the Cheng has been relegated to her 2nd vault.

It’s pretty clear that any combination of the top 8 that includes Simone is going to win team finals by a million points, with very minimal variation of scores.

With that in mind, while a departure to how teams have been constructed in the past, I would look towards individual medals.

Between Simone, Shi, and Skye, AA, vault, and beam all have two clear cut medal winners on their best days. That leaves openings on bars and floor.

If they fully upgrade and hit their sets, Suni and Jade make the most sense. That’s a big if, but peak Jade and Suni are the best choices as they are the only potential medal contenders on bars and floor outside of the 3 locks. Suni is also a better choice than Skye for the 2nd beam worker in EF.

It’s crazy, but best case scenario is that team USA could win 9 or 10 medals in Paris.

 

[ucrgirl]

Wong vs. Carey vault E-score... no way those should only be 0.3 apart.

The vault judges are definitely doing something... it would not be the first time that the vault panel was used to control the outcomes of a US Championships. It's happened before. (Don't ask me when — I can't remember what specific years, but I have thought it was brazenly obviously multiple times.)

I’m very curious who you thought they are pushing (besides Kayla) and who you think they are trying to bury. It isn’t super obvious too me.

 

[makam]

The only reason I am not all-in on the SkyeTrain is that we've been burned before. With Russia not there (and China still not-quite-there on FX (though their vault options have improved, right?)), Brazil still only having Rebeca and Flavia, Italy chewing through their options, GB missing some of the stars--well, it is the US's to lose and they can probably absorb a Skye mishap but probably not several (unless you want to count on China having a few biffs too). So she's going to have to have 3 more steady competitions before I buy in. If the team is Simone, Shilese, Skye, Suni, and Jade, Jade's gonna have to change her name to something that starts with an S.

Kayla and Jordan are my two leading alternates and if Shi's shoulder keeps her out, I'd take Jordan over Kayla because she brings the energy but if they go by the numbers they are currently getting, Kayla is probably the actual choice. Honestly, they could throw a dart.

 

[Doug1233]

So if the team is Simone, Shilese, Suni, Skye and Jade, the obvious prelims lineup is for Suni to do UB/BB, Jade to do FX/VT, and for the other three to do AA.

However, we get into a connundrum if Suni gets her full strength bars back, and starts consistently beating Skye in the AA (perhaps at Trials).

Who goes up on VT in Prelims?

We get into that age-old "Team GB who does Beam in prelims?" and "Rio USA Who does Bars in prelims?" awkwardness.

Could any of you see a universe where Skye doesn't vault in Prelims, but busts out a Cheng in TF?

 

[irichluck21]

if anyone wants to watch or rewatch Day 1 is on YouTube

 

[cftmoonlight79]

I also re watched on Peacock last night. Not sure if it's still available there.

 

[Sasha]

The only reason I am not all-in on the SkyeTrain is that we've been burned before. With Russia not there (and China still not-quite-there on FX (though their vault options have improved, right?)), Brazil still only having Rebeca and Flavia, Italy chewing through their options, GB missing some of the stars--well, it is the US's to lose and they can probably absorb a Skye mishap but probably not several (unless you want to count on China having a few biffs too). So she's going to have to have 3 more steady competitions before I buy in. If the team is Simone, Shilese, Skye, Suni, and Jade, Jade's gonna have to change her name to something that starts with an S.

Kayla and Jordan are my two leading alternates and if Shi's shoulder keeps her out, I'd take Jordan over Kayla because she brings the energy but if they go by the numbers they are currently getting, Kayla is probably the actual choice. Honestly, they could throw a dart.

She can be Sade, like the artist.

 

[Aeris]

However, we get into a connundrum if Suni gets her full strength bars back, and starts consistently beating Skye in the AA (perhaps at Trials).

Who goes up on VT in Prelims?

Could any of you see a universe where Skye doesn't vault in Prelims, but busts out a Cheng in TF?

I wouldn't slot Suni into AA unless she is #2 AA at trials. It's not worth the risk of losing the backup for vault finals. Skye is still capable of an AA medal if one of the top 2 has to pull out there, regardless if she ends up as the #4 ranked AA instead of #3.

 

[ucrgirl]

I wonder if Suni will continue to compete AA. Something she said at Classic made me think getting back on AA was a personal goal. It wouldn't shock me if she focused on bars and beam and occasionally practiced floor and vault.

I could see an inverse focus for Jade in the next few weeks, although Jade probably wouldn't give up AA.

 

[irichluck21]

I think given Suni's health concerns, it is best to specialize, but have VT and FX ready to go if needed.
Showing she can do AA backs up her case to be named to the team, because it is not as though she can't do VT or FX in an emergency.

 

[irichluck21]

Chiles is flirting with deduction for vocals on FX.
In her music there is a clear GO GO GO in the middle of the routine.
Did they change the rule and this is allowed now?

I remember Douglas had to change her floor cut in 2012 because of the "hey hey, yeah yeah"

 

[Laura722]

I wonder if Suni will continue to compete AA. Something she said at Classic made me think getting back on AA was a personal goal. It wouldn't shock me if she focused on bars and beam and occasionally practiced floor and vault.

I could see an inverse focus for Jade in the next few weeks, although Jade probably wouldn't give up AA.

I think Suni intends to compete AA. She's very competitive.

 

[Laura722]

The Washington Post still has Kaliya Lincoln on its "best" team.

It's Biles, Jones, Blakely, Lee, and Lincoln.

 

[irichluck21]

LOL

 

[CameliasFingerpaint]

The Washington Post still has Kaliya Lincoln on its "best" team.

It's Biles, Jones, Blakely, Lee, and Lincoln.

I guess that makes sense mathematically, with Lincoln’s floor adding more to the team total than Jade’s vault. But isn’t a selection based on reality. They made a a huge strategic mistake in only focusing on upgrading her floor and ignoring VT/BB. She just isn’t usable anywhere else.

 

[Laura722]

I guess that makes sense mathematically, with Lincoln’s floor adding more to the team total than Jade’s vault. But isn’t a selection based on reality. They made a a huge strategic mistake in only focusing on upgrading her floor and ignoring VT/BB. She just isn’t usable anywhere else.

Yeah, I was just putting it out there. I'm sure it will change at some point.

 

[Denn]

It’s impossible without professional programs to get freeze frames of it all. I wonder what program the photos came from?

I just pause the video and do a screen shot. Slow mo can help get the right moment.

 

[rlayt]

Well my eyes are a bit older and I’m on a phone instead of a pad or computer. It’s hard to see where the right moment is.

 

[Denn]

The Washington Post still has Kaliya Lincoln on its "best" team.

It's Biles, Jones, Blakely, Lee, and Lincoln.

But what data are they using to decide each athlete's scoring potential per apparatus, and how are they combining it into statistics to do the analysis.

Lincoln is not going to go for her floor when Carey can do a Cheng and an Amanar to get a medal on vault and a similarly good floor. That's where you override what any computer turns out because the computer isn't being told how to judge vault medal potential.

 

[Denn]

Well my eyes are a bit older and I’m on a phone instead of a pad or computer. It’s hard to see where the right moment is.

Try changing using the video interface's playback speed to get yourself a slow mo (or a slow mo OF the slow mo already given). It's really helpful sometimes!