2024 US Nationals WAG Session 2, Day 1

[Aeris]

Lincoln is not going to go for her floor when Carey can do a Cheng and an Amanar to get a medal on vault and a similarly good floor. That's where you override what any computer turns out because the computer isn't being told how to judge vault medal potential.

Carey's vaulting becomes disposable if Skye is beating her there and Lincoln is beating her by .5 on floor. At least in terms of how team selection should go.

Lincoln just isn’t usable anywhere else.

Yes she is. In the past year she's put up 14.2 on VT, 13.1 on UB, 13.8 on BB. Let's say 14.0 VT and 13.2 BB is the more realistic expectation for her though. Those are sufficient numbers for the team to still win in some kind of disaster scenario where she has to go up. Unless it's, like, Simone and Shilese both simultaneously dropping out right before the team event starts. Then there might be a problem.

But that's such a ridiculous premise to use to select a 5th team member for. The 5th member on a team of 4 strong AA'ers shouldn't even need to have more than 1 event. Their role is to boost the team on a particular event. Being a better AA'er should only be used as a tie-breaker for selection when 2 people are scoring very close to each other on the events they're expected to be used on.

 

[Sasha]

Lincoln is entirely usable on other events. Particularly vault, her DTY is gorgeous. She's just not particularly competitive given the rest of the field. But let's not make it out like she's terrible or something, she's not.

 

[Laura722]

Trinity is still on the start list for day 2. No Kaliya Lincoln.

MyUSAGym

 

[RedBirdie]

Trinity is going to warm up bars and then make a decision.

 

[MaryClare]

Is Lincoln done then?

 

[RedBirdie]

Kaliya has pulled out of nationals but is submitting a petition for Trials.

 

[Doug1233]

Trinity is going to warm up bars and then make a decision.

She should do a hit bar set. Then come down with a curious and completely unexpected case of 48-hour flu and petition to Trials.

 

[RedBirdie]

USAG confirm Kaliya has petitioned.

 

[Passion]

I don't know if Trinity is eligible to petition to Trials no matter what she does here. It depends on if they count her receiving an international assignment the same as competing at one, since she was assigned to Pac Rims but withdrew without competing. You need to have competed internationally since Sept 2023 or been a member of the 2021 Olympic Team or either '22/'23 Worlds team to submit a petition to Trials.

It doesn't say you have to compete AA at Nationals to be invited to Trials without petitioning though.

1.3.2. In addition to the top two (2) all-around senior athletes from the combined rank order of two days of competition at the 2024 U.S. Gymnastics Championships, a minimum of ten (10) additional athletes from among the senior competitors at the 2024 U.S. Gymnastics Championships and petitioned athletes will be invited by the Athlete Selection Committee to the 2024 Olympic Trials, utilizing the Discretionary Selection Criteria as set forth in Section 2.2.

It just says you have to be a senior competitor. Technically, they could extend an invitation to anyone they wanted who competed anything at Nationals. The 2.2 discretionary criteria is pretty vague. They really left themselves room to rationalize bringing whoever they want.

D scores and E scores but without saying what those D scores or E scores actually have to be lol. Consistency, but what is the specific percentage they're looking for? It's all subjective.

I'm not saying this means they will invite her, just that the possibility is there. The selection committee is not blocked from inviting her by any rule.

(I don't think they will invite her based on part of a FX and maybe an UB routine tonight though.)

 

[ucrgirl]

But what data are they using to decide each athlete's scoring potential per apparatus, and how are they combining it into statistics to do the analysis.

Lincoln is not going to go for her floor when Carey can do a Cheng and an Amanar to get a medal on vault and a similarly good floor. That's where you override what any computer turns out because the computer isn't being told how to judge vault medal potential.

I think the Washington post app is weighting last year too heavily which disadvantages Jade. Jade still isn’t competing her full difficulty but if she shows up at Trials with the floor upgrades and decent E-scores I think she’s on the team. That durned app also doesn’t value competition experience and performance under pressure as much as I do.

 

[makam]

I don't know if Trinity is eligible to petition to Trials no matter what she does here. It depends on if they count her receiving an international assignment the same as competing at one, since she was assigned to Pac Rims but withdrew without competing. You need to have competed internationally since Sept 2023 or been a member of the 2021 Olympic Team or either '22/'23 Worlds team to submit a petition to Trials.

It doesn't say you have to compete AA at Nationals to be invited to Trials without petitioning though.



It just says you have to be a senior competitor. Technically, they could extend an invitation to anyone they wanted who competed anything at Nationals. The 2.2 discretionary criteria is pretty vague. They really left themselves room to rationalize bringing whoever they want.

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D scores and E scores but without saying what those D scores or E scores actually have to be lol. Consistency, but what is the specific percentage they're looking for? It's all subjective.

I'm not saying this means they will invite her, just that the possibility is there. The selection committee is not blocked from inviting her by any rule.

(I don't think they will invite her based on part of a FX and maybe an UB routine tonight though.)

They've invited specialists before. If she can put up a competitive UB score tonight (like in the top 3), that would be enough incentive to invite her.