2023 World Championships & Pan American Games Team Trials (USA)

[CameliasFingerpaint]

I don’t think there is any reason for either Skye OR Leanne to do AA in qualification. Shilese is far and away the best hope for a 2nd AA medal. Skye has a better pair of Vaults than Leanne with a huge ceiling for an upgrade, Leanne has a better FX than Skye. Tactically the best decision is to only put Simone and Shi up in the AA and have Skye do VT/UB/BB and Leanne do UB/BB/FX. This is going to maximize medal opportunities, give needed experience, and maximize team total.

Leanne is a beautiful gymnast, but without major upgrades, I don’t see her factoring into the Paris team. She seems pretty much maxed out at the moment. Skye has a much higher ceiling and that should be taken into account.

 

[irichluck21]

Skye has also been dealing with an ankle injury that prevented her from competing floor up until Nationals and Selection Camp.

So maybe it is best she doesn’t do floor for Worlds so she is in optimal condition on other events.

OR

Skye waters down on floor so she can compete safely and cleanly. Her FX isn’t needed in TF with Biles, Jones, Roberson.

I guess we will see what happens

 

[YurchenkoLoop]

I don’t think there is any reason for either Skye OR Leanne to do AA in qualification.

God forbid an injury occur to Jones or Biles, wouldn’t you want another athlete who could be subbed into the AA?

We already know Roberson’s FX is received fine internationally, so I say give Blakely her shot since she is the clear third best AA

 

[gymfan]

Very unlikely for both not doing AA in QF. The USAG knows the importance of having 3 AAers in QF. This year, the USA team had Rivera and Hang as top two junior AAers domestically. Only Hang competed in AA because Rivera scored a zero on vault and Stassi who qualified in AA 1st group got injured. There is no way USAG would only put two AAers in QF after seeing what happened in junior worlds.

 

[MaryClare]

There’s no way that USAG is even considering what happened at junior worlds.

 

[CameliasFingerpaint]

Planning for the very remote possibility of an injury between qualification and the AA final seems overly prudent, especially when the backup has very little chance of making the podium.

I think there is far more benefit to having Skye compete her second vault than Leanne finishing 6th in the AA final if Shi were to fall on beam in qualifications.

 

[gymfan]

Highly doubt it. What happened at junior worlds is a strong reason for USAG to have 3 AAers in QF. They should prepare for any unexpected circumstances, including injury or slipping of vault.

 

[Aeris]

Yeah, only 2 AA’s in qualifying isn’t going to happen. Not when the 3rd AA’er is a potential medalist if they have to be used (don’t see why @MrSixkiller is thinking Skye/Leanne aren’t potential medalists). For other countries that can be a fine strategy. It’s sad we even need to have this discussion, everyone should be allowed to do all events in qualifying.

Leanne matching Skye on the vault total at trials was a notch in her favor for getting to do AA in qualification, since the two of them are also competing for who gets to be the vault final backup. Leanne is already the better Floor worker, so I would put her in.

 

[CameliasFingerpaint]

I mean, of course I would love it if prelims was 5-5-4, but that’s not the reality we live in. Leanne does not have a standout event and Skye has a tenuous floor. They both would need a lot of help to make the AA podium.

The US is not in a place where they need to be defensive or consider doomsday scenarios in their lineups. They should be making lineups with the idea of maximizing results.

 

[MaryClare]

What USAG should do, what it should learn from is usually very different to what it does in practice. I’ll be surprised if they don’t have 3 AAers, but it’ll be nothing to do with what happened at junior worlds

I do think Leanne will do AA in quals though, that’s effectively her whole role, solid AA back up.

 

[Aeris]

They already gave up the option of maximizing potential results with this team selection, there’s nothing more to be gained now. I don’t see Skye’s vaulting as anything special over Leanne’s that should merit dropping a 3rd AA’er. Technically it’s Leanne who beat Skye on vault at trials, because for event finals it’s the highest single vault score that wins the tiebreaker. The higher individual vault is also relevant for being used in team final.

Going by last Worlds, the Bronze medal position for this Worlds in the AA is 55.2, very much in range for Skye and Leanne.

 

[gymfan]

Every event happened to USAG are relevant and considered. Tokyo Olympics was another evidence for USAG not having only 2AAers. Junior worlds is the most recent evidence not to put only 2AAers in QF.

 

[MaryClare]

Going by last Worlds, the Bronze medal position for this Worlds in the AA is 55.2, very much in range for Skye and Leanne.

The last worlds didn’t have Simone

 

[MaryClare]

I wish I had that level of faith in USAG’s competence

 

[blake]

I think Wong should do floor if only to gauge how she’ll be received internationally in this code. The judges liked her in 2021, but she hasn’t competed floor internationally in this code. If Skye is dealing with an ankle injury, I think they should prioritize her health as much as I’d like to see her get a shot at AA.

 

[Aeris]

The last worlds didn’t have Simone

I know, that’s already included in my calculation. If one of Simone or Shilese has to drop out, the field for the Bronze medal is still the same compared to last year.

 

[Beamer]

Figuring out Qualification via a logic puzzle:

Let’s start with what we know with reasonable certainty.

Biles and Jones get to do AA in Qualification.

Then you have to put Roberson on VT for EF. And you have to put up Blakely on BB for EF.

Roberson obviously is the one sitting out UB.

So that leaves the following as the only decisions that have to be made:

Blakely or Wong competing VT.
Wong or Roberson competing BB.
Two of Blakely, Wong, Roberson competing FX.

Chances are good the U.S. will put up 3 AAers.

Blakely vs Wong on VT: pretty evenly matched

Wong vs Roberson on BB: pretty evenly matched

Wong and Roberson currently looking much stronger on FX than Blakely, so you’d put one of the former up unless you want Blakely doing AA.

This is a tough call, but my money is on Wong doing AA, which leaves Blakely off VT and FX and leaves Roberson off BB.

 

[irichluck21]

Very unlikely for both not doing AA in QF. The USAG knows the importance of having 3 AAers in QF. This year, the USA team had Rivera and Hang as top two junior AAers domestically. Only Hang competed in AA because Rivera scored a zero on vault and Stassi who qualified in AA 1st group got injured. There is no way USAG would only put two AAers in QF after seeing what happened in junior worlds.

I get what you are trying to say, but this situation doesn’t apply at all.
There was nothing USAG could have done differently at Junior Worlds.
The teams are 3 gymnast in 3-3-2 format. Rivera getting a 0 on vault was a fluke.

USAG didn’t have the ability to add in another all around athlete because the format simply does not permit it.

 

[dweiss324]

If you’re already going to sit out Blakely on floor (which I think you should), then you should also bench her for vault. No point really in sacrificing a 3rd all arounder for Blakely and Wong to do three events a piece. So ironically, while you bring Leanne as the 5th team member for a solid back up and as a complement to roberson on FX/VT, it’s Leanne’s floor that should give her a shot at the AA.

 

[irichluck21]

bump…