2022 Regionals Watch

[irichluck21]

So with one more week and then conference championships, the rankings got shaken up a bit during week 9.
Michigan fell down to 3rd with NQS and Oklahoma took the top spot.
Auburn, Florida, and Utah all went 198.575 for the highest score this season.

Take a look at seedings for regionals its gonna be a bloodbath. Any of the four teams could advance out of each super regional really…and also there are some unseeded teams that have hit 197 and can definitely contend and upset 1-16.

1 Oklahoma
8 Minnesota
9 Kentucky
16 Ohio State

4 Utah
5 Auburn (hosts)
12 Michigan State
13 Oregon State

3 Michigan
6 Alabama
11 Missouri
14 Denver

2 Florida
7 LSU
10 California
15 Arizona State

Also:
17 UCLA went 197 this year twice and just put up a 198 this weekend
18 Arkansas, 19 BYU, 21 Boise State, 25 Illinois, 27 Maryland, 31 Washington and 32 Southern Utah, all have at least one 197+ score this year. Illinois and Washington are also the regional hosts. Crazy that Washington and Southern Utah might have to do the play in meet.

26 NC State is also a host and their high is 196.925

I predict we will see a few upsets. Not just within the top 8 teams, but also I think a few unseeded teams will end up making the regional finals.

 

[dweiss324]

I know things are subject to change, but… It seems like being seeded 3 & 4 reeeeally works in those teams’ favor in this scenario. I’d imagine a 3 seed Michigan team and a 4 seed utah would feel much more comfortable in this situation and be able to build momentum towards the final 4 (ideally), whereas Oklahoma and Florida would have to have the gas on the whole time. I’d be pooping myself.

And UCLA being unseeded and scoring a 198 this weekend is terrifying.

 

[Caligym]

And that 198 from UCLA is counting a 9.55! The depth this year is amazing!

 

[Hatsumomo]

That second seed is going to be fun with 3 of the schools having a member of the USA Olympic team.

 

[irichluck21]

And that 198 from UCLA is counting a 9.55! The depth this year is amazing!

I wouldn’t quite say that. The 198 was really a low 197 with massive overscores and obvious deductions not being taken.

 

[irichluck21]

I know things are subject to change, but… It seems like being seeded 3 & 4 reeeeally works in those teams’ favor in this scenario. I’d imagine a 3 seed Michigan team and a 4 seed utah would feel much more comfortable in this situation and be able to build momentum towards the final 4 (ideally), whereas Oklahoma and Florida would have to have the gas on the whole time. I’d be pooping myself.

Utah doesn’t have an easy time at all since they have to contend with Auburn in the 5 spot and Michigan State is highly underrated in the Big Ten, their gymnastics is legit and they keep getting better each week out. Oregon State has bars to deal with but has Jade Carey so who knows what can happen in a few weeks.

Michigan has Alabama to deal with in 6th spot and Missouri is dangerous as well and also underrated similar to Michigan State. Denver is going to struggle without Brown and Sundstrum but they still got a 197 this weekend without both so they are still strong.

Honestly no regional is by any means a cake walk. ASU is ranked 15 but got a 197.800 (heavy home overscore) against UCLA.
Ohio State is 16th at the moment but they are definitely talented and can challenge for a top 2 finish. They had hit 197.525 this year as their high score so if they are hitting 24 for 24 there is potential for a mid to high 197.

 

[irichluck21]

Last 8 in:
29 San Jose State
30 Towson
31 Washington
32 Southern Utah
33 West Virginia
34 North Carolina
35 Arizona
36 Western Michigan

First 8 Out:
37 Pittsburgh
38 Nebraska
39 Penn State
40 Central Michigan
41 Kent State
42 UC Davis
43 Temple
44 Rutgers

 

[Caligym]

I meant the depth in college gymnastics overall is amazing, not at UCLA(re-reading can see how could think that’s what I meant). But I would also say over-scoring this season is not exclusive to UCLA…

 

[irichluck21]

I meant the depth in college gymnastics overall is amazing, not at UCLA(re-reading can see how could think that’s what I meant). But I would also say over-scoring this season is not exclusive to UCLA…

I am sorry I misread your comment.
Yeah the depth is incredible. It used to be very clear who the top 6 teams were and then tiers of teams. But now anyone within the top 16 could win nationals on any given day depending on what happens. Though technically only 9 maybe 10 realistically could do it.

I would venture to say that anyone in the top 12 could do serious damage at nationals. It is still likely the top 6 teams (Oklahoma, Florida, Michigan, Utah, Alabama, and LSU) that will win nationals. But Auburn has proved it is a national contender. Minnesota, Kentucky, California, Missouri, Michigan State, Oregon State all could potentially make a Final Four. California and Minnesota came close last year.

Even the fight to be in the top 36 is incredible. It used to be a clear top 30 an then a few on the bubble for top 36 but now it goes down into the high 40s. Ball State is 47th and could easily be in the top 36, just a few bad meets they are currently counting in NQS

 

[RedBirdie]

I wouldn’t quite say that. The 198 was really a low 197 with massive overscores and obvious deductions not being taken.

The story of NCAA gymnastics scoring this season. Its ridiculous.

 

[Bananna]

The scoring this year has really taken some of the enjoyment out of NCAA for me. It’s always been slightly crazy, but this year it feels like obvious deductions are not being taken and the home scoring has been dreadful. Some teams have been massively benefiting from an Olympic bonus.

 

[Caledi]

Yeah, last weekend was basically my breaking point. This is the first year since I started following (~5 years ago) that I’m not at all excited for the post-season.

 

[Sasha]

I’m a first year fan and it’s already dampening my enthusiasm. Hopefully they’ll correct next year, but I feel like the judges have painted themselves into a corner already for this season.

 

[dweiss324]

I’m opposite I guess. I definitely don’t watch many meets anymore (prefer to read quick hits), but I’m excited and waiting in anticipation for post season. I need an ncaa radio station / podcast like now. All this regular season overscoring is total crap, but the idea of major upsets in the post season is really exciting for me.

Maybe I’m just so burnt out from systemic disruption that I’m actually okay with and expecting overscores if it hints at a return to “normalcy”. It is alarming it’s so normalized now, but I fine myself increasingly being like “whatever”.

But check back on me if / when Michigan doesn’t win due to overscoring shenanigans and I’m sure I’ll be livid.

 

[irichluck21]

March 14, 2022
Only conference championships are left.

1 Oklahoma
8 Minnesota
9 Kentucky
16 Ohio State
(unchanged since week 9)

4 Utah
5 LSU
12 Michigan State
13 Oregon State
(LSU swapped with Auburn)

3 Michigan
6 Auburn
11 Missouri
14 Arizona State
(ASU moved into Denver’s slot and Alabama got swapped by Auburn tie breaker)

2 Florida
7 Alabama
10 California
15 Denver
(Alabama moved into LSU spot, Denver moved into ASU spot)

A few moves, but nothing changes too much. LSU didn’t really improve chances much as Michigan State and Oregon State are much more dangerous than California and Arizona State IMO. Michigan State is underrated and continues to improve as the season goes on. I think they have a strong chance to give Michigan a run for the Big Ten title. OSU is struggling on bars but Carey continues to give them huge AA numbers.

Florida, Alabama, Cal have to be happy as they now need to only beat one of the teams in this three to advance. Denver only put up 5 athletes on VT/UB/FX and is unlikely to have any replacements on those event to be able to drop a score.

Oklahoma bracket there is no change. Minnesota vs Kentucky is going to come down to the very last tenth IMO. Ohio State, like MSU is underrated and could be dangerous if consistently hitting.

Michigan bracket is stronger with Denver out and Arizona State in. Missouri is not going to just fall down dead either. They have seem to be in a groove of 197.4-197.5 a few mistakes from Auburn or Michigan and Missouri might pounce on the opportunity.

We also have the mystery of the unseeded teams.
17 Arkansas, 18 UCLA, 19 Illinois, 20 Maryland, and 21 BYU have put up 197 plus (Maryland has a few 197s for example) and 22 Georgia also was able to get into the 197s (at home). So any of these unseeded teams could play spoiler. I would not want UCLA in my regional and Arkansas is dangerous if they fix the bars inconsistency issues they have had all year.

Last 8 in:
29 Washington (+2)
30 Towson (-)
31 Southern Utah (+1)
32 Arizona (+3)
33 North Carolina (+1)
34 West Virginia (-1)
35 San Jose State (-6)
36 Western Michigan (-)

First 8 Out
37 Penn State (+2)
38 Kent State (+3)
39 George Washington (+7) mathematically eliminated
40 Central Michigan (-)
41 Nebraska (-3) mathematically eliminated
42 Pittsburgh (-5) mathematically eliminated
43 UC Davis (-1) mathematically eliminated
44 Rutgers (-) mathematically eliminated

Only Penn State, Kent State, and Central Michigan have any mathematical chance at moving into the top 36 but it will be challenging to get up there.

First time in history a 196 NQS is required to make it into the top 36. To put things in perspective, the last real full season (2019) a 196.070 was 22nd in ranking and 36th was a 195.335
#36 Western Michigan currently has a 196.150, which would have placed them 22nd (over NC State) in 2019!!!