Extremely Premature Olympic Team Predictions and Speculation

[GymBeauty]

I wonder what being alternates a second time would feel like for Wong and DiCello, but I don’t see either of them with a strong enough event(s) to replace anyone

Leanne Wong should be outscoring Jordan by a lot on Beam, and by a decent amount on Floor, if she’s completely healthy and has ideal routine construction. Her 14.0+ floor routines at 2021 Worlds had a useless Double-L turn that lost her a couple tenths, and the dismount bonus didn’t exist then, so 14.4 should be seen as very achievable for her, and I think even more than that is possible (like going for a Shushunova after the Triple Twist - she actually did a split jump there one competition, and that’s more difficult).

 

[rlayt]

Al will choreograph a routine for Leanne that loses her the spot.

 

[RedBirdie]

Is Leanne back at GAGE for the summer? Seeing her at Nationals with Fong last year made me want to cry. Imagine what a competent coach could do with her.

 

[irichluck21]

Is Leanne back at GAGE for the summer? Seeing her at Nationals with Fong last year made me want to cry. Imagine what a competent coach could do with her.

Her USAG bio is confusing.

It lists U of Florida as her club, but her coaches are listed as Al and Armine

 

[RichardL]

2021 Worlds was in another Code of Points. How is that relevant? A 14.400 would have easily won Worlds this year and Wong has too many built-in deductions to come close to that at this point.

 

[YurchenkoLoop]

Yeah I hold my breath every time Wong steps onto FX and with Chiles I never worry. And Chiles might be planning on competing the Moors this year. Chiles outscores Wong on VT and UB. And BB is a gamble with every gymnast. Plus Chiles assumed a leadership role last year

 

[Sasha]

with Chiles I never worry

How times have changed, huh?

 

[ArnoldRimmer]

That’s 100% what is going to happen. It’ll be the floor version of Kara’s rings.

 

[rlayt]

Al Fong, killer of Olympic dreams.

 

[GymBeauty]

2021 Worlds was in another Code of Points. How is that relevant? A 14.400 would have easily won Worlds this year and Wong has too many built-in deductions to come close to that at this point.

The only thing that’s changed since the 2021 code are the new guidelines for scoring “artistry” (which is not a problem for Leanne) and the dismount bonus - which is a direct benefit. The way her skills were scored at 2021 Worlds is no different than how they get scored now. Leanne’s routine from 2021, if we just take out the silly L-turn, almost certainly would have won 2022 Worlds…unless politics stopped it.

Wong doesn’t have “too many built-in” deductions. You can’t just say random unsupported things. Her leaps are cleaner than Chiles and her acro is at least equal in quality, and Wong currently has shown the higher acro difficulty.

Chiles outscores Wong on VT and UB

Wong outscores Chiles on UB when fully healthy. Chiles topped out at 14.1 on Bars at Worlds, Wong can go at least 14.3 (and the scoring at Worlds supports this - she got 13.766 for a routine with a dismount that had tons of deductions, when typically she nails that Double Layout). Wong also has shown the ability to connect out of her Pak to further increase her score, Chiles never has.

 

[RedBirdie]

Woulds could shoulda. The fact is the Wong was hurt in 2022, she has a long history of being inconsistent, and any routine construction by GAGE is extremely suspect at best.

 

[GymBeauty]

Um yes, Wong was hurt in 2022, but the subject of the discussion is who will be better by the time Olympics comes, if healthy and given ideal routines.

 

[YurchenkoLoop]

As soon as Chiles gets her Cheng, this convo will be moot

 

[Beamer]

Wong will never have ideal routine construction under Al and Armine. You keep saying “given ideal routines”. Are you expecting a coaching change here that none of us know about? Because that’s the only way that could happen.

This could get funnier if you say she is switching to Akopian, king of routine construction.

 

[Beamer]

I agree that the most likely team, barring injury, for 2023 Worlds is:

Biles
Lee
Jones
Carey
Chiles

That’s my default - albeit too far in the future to really guess properly - presumption for 2024 Olympics as well. Douglas could have a say in this if she returns to competition.

 

[GymBeauty]

There’s a new team coordinator who is supposed to guiding the gymnasts to have better routine construction. If the coaches don’t want to listen, well, don’t be surprised if your gymnasts get scored lower and you lose reputation as a coach.

 

[Doug1233]

Biles
Lee
Jones
Carey
Chiles

That’s my default - albeit too far in the future to really guess properly - presumption for 2024 Olympics as well. Douglas could have a say in this if she returns to competition.

I had this exact team, but I removed Chiles and added Gabby, like a year ago, and people were saying I was crazy haha.

Just imagine the line ups. Multiple Olympic AA champions on every event.

I do worry that Simone’s bars don’t work well with the new Code. I have a feeling they will nix the Piked Tkatchev completely.

 

[GymBeauty]

Simone is all good if she learns the Shang or Downie and moves her Toe 1/1 to before the Van Leeuwen - 6.5 start value for just a small modification to what she’s been doing for years.

 

[RedBirdie]

There’s a new team coordinator who is supposed to guiding the gymnasts to have better routine construction. If the coaches don’t want to listen, well, don’t be surprised if your gymnasts get scored lower and you lose reputation as a coach

This is Al Fong we’re talking about. He thinks he’s a genius and nobody could possibly know more than him. He will do what he damn well pleases.

And reputation? The man had two gymnasts die! He’s well-known for terrorizing his gymnasts. Yet parents still send their daughters there.

 

[MaryClare]

And reputation? The man had two gymnasts die! He’s well-known for terrorizing his gymnasts. Yet parents still send their daughters there

He’s had one gymnast die as the result of an injury sustained on an unsafe skill, and another who died as the result of an eating disorder. I’m really not sure it’s possible to be a bigger failure as a gymnastics coach.

Ultimately, these types of coaches will continue to exist until parents are unwilling to gamble Olympic glory with their child’s physical and emotional well being. And actually, I think the ability to now make money whilst retaining ncaa eligibility will make things worse.

Look at Maggie Haney, parents still want her coaching their kids and she’s suspended plus doesn’t have anything like the reputation and longevity of Al Fong