Crunching the Numbers: How MAG Turkey would have finished in the team competition

[irichluck21]

They would have certainly made team finals based on what they showed.
Adem Asil, Ahmet Onder did AA
Ibrahim Colak did just rings
Ferhat Arican did just pommels and parallel bars

So the “team” of four was just missing three scores in 4-3-3 scenario. High bar, Floor, and Vault.

Turkey	FX	PH	SR	VT	PB	HB
Asil	14.033	12.400	14.800	15.100	14.091	14.100
Onder	14.600	13.333	14.366	14.333	15.200	13.833
Arican	14.233	15.566
Colak	14.933
Totals	28.633	39.966 (8)	44.099 (1)	29.433	44.857 (5)	27.933

As you can see Turkey performed well on still rings and would have been ranked 1st overall there, with a 5th on PB, and 8th on pommels. Clearly they would have been headed to team finals.

But what position would they have gotten in team qualifications?

Ranking After TQ	Passing	Total score needed (FX/VT/HB)	Average Score per rotation needed
8th	Ukraine	32.541	10.847
7th	Switzerland	34.272	11.424
6th	Germany	35.008	11.669
5th	Great Britain	41.673	13.891
4th	USA	41.840	13.946

So I would predict that Turkey would have easily passed Ukraine, knocking them out of team finals, and also Switzerland and Germany to settle in 6th comfortably.

Granted VT and FX can get scores in the 14s but it is hard to get high 13s on high bar so it would have been harder to pass Great Britain and USA but definitely not impossible.

For fun I took Ferhat Arican’s scores from team qualification in Stuttgart (Colak did PB in Stuttgart but his score would have been dropped anyway)
FX: 13.300
VT: 13.300
HB: 13.333
Total: 39.933, so not enough to pass GBR or USA so they would likely have remained 6th.

 

[RAFIKI]

I was hoping someone would do this so thank you. I wonder if the team/coaches have done the calculations.

I did like the second chance that the Olympic test event gave for team qualification. Team fortunes can vary (on the MAG side GBR came 4th in 2010, 11th in 2011 and 3rd in 2012) and with WAG no longer allowing 15 year olds in pre-Olympic worlds I think it’s important to have a chance to qualify with eligible athletes.

 

[irichluck21]

I agree.
But I also think that pre-Olympics Worlds should just allow 15 year olds to compete, especially now that there is a junior worlds in place.

Back to the men, Turkey was 15th in Stuttgart but without Adem Asil who is obviously a game changer! Had he been eligible to compete for Turkey at the 2019 Worlds (he debuted for Turkey in 2020 once he was eligible) there is no doubt Turkey would have been amongst the top 12.