2021 Tokyo Olympics vs. COVID-19

[Bob]

I think that is what I said if you read down my post. I’m against spectators and I think if an athlete is positive the whole team should isolate. The spectators don’t have to go. The athletes do if there is going to be a games but I don’t think they should be taking any risks

 

[ucrgirl]

I saw this article and remembered the reports in the US that many people decided to only get one shot because they didn’t want the reaction people were having to the first shot . . .

 

[Denn]

The spectators won’t be near the athletes. That is the lowest risk of all.

That’s literally EXACTLY the point I was making about spectators.

 

[JaJa]

“If you’re fully vaccinated, I would largely not worry about it,” said Dr. Ashish K. Jha, dean of the Brown University School of Public Health.

I do not know what it is with Dr Jha. The good doctor has been downplaying the risks associated with coronavirus since the start of the pandemic.

The fact is they are finding out that fully vaxxed people in Israel (where they use Pfizer) are getting covid. One report the other day said 33% of the recent vases are with fully vaxxed people. My guess is that when they say Delta variant the truth is they are really talking about a number of very similar variants. Remember, the virus mutates every time it transmits. And if you follow the progression from the first variant we were made aware of – UK – to the last one – Delta – the trend is a small but consistently decreasing efficiency on the part of the vaccine.

Glad Dr Jha tells us all not to worry. But there is clearly serious cause for concern. And serious reason for us all to go back (assuming we stopped which i personally did not) to mask wearing indoors and out, social distancing and hand washing.

 

[JaJa]

I agree with you. I really do.

 

[JaJa]

As a long hauler, I agree with you. And my BFF, we thought she wasn’t that sick. She had a week of moderate flu like symptoms, but no hospitalizations. Now she’s on dialysis at least twice a week. Covid blew her kidneys. Yeah, I’m scared.

I had the mildest of cases. Barely felt sick. I stayed home obviously in isolation but could have gone to work every day if i had to. I had some VERY mild fatigue and some slight chills. One day I felt slightly winded. A couple of days I had this weird dehydration. It was all barely noticeable. I had been exposed and got a pcr which came back positive otherwise I might not even have suspected I had covid.

It took me about 2 months to get rid of all symptoms. I had the mild chills for a while but truly it was pretty innocuous.

Then WHAM – 3 or 4 months later I go to the doctor for a general check up. I had lost weight but did not think anything of it. But I am diagnosed with post covid diabetes.

I do have a family history of diabetes. But I myself am fit healthy slender. NEVER had a sugar issue.

But this virus finds whatever weakness it can in your body and hits you there.

It is evil and scary.

 

[irichluck21]

Yes. Similar situation to a colleague, she caught Covid and then almost two months later had severe digestive issues and her diverticulitis (which hadn’t flared up in a decade) put her out for two weeks and she had to have surgery to remove part of her intestine. She was an extremely healthy eater and avoided any triggers.

I never caught Covid (that I am aware of- multiple scares though) but post vaccine does one and two my skin has has numerous reactions and issues including hives, rashes, and irritated skin. I do have sensitive skin and have reactions before but it has been 12 years since my skin reacted this horribly. I saw my doctor today and his conclusion is that it is a reaction from the vaccine and I have some antibiotics to help clear it up as I was dealing with it since end of April.
Though I would rather deal with skin irritation and itching than that of other outcomes.

Feel better!!!

 

[JaJa]

Though I would rather deal with skin irritation and itching than that of other outcomes.

Feel better!!!

exactly

And thanks for the good wishes Rich. To be honest I am not all that upset about the diabetes thing. Just do not have time to worry about this. Plus i am hoping it goes away in time.

There are so much worse things happening to people. And throughout this pandemic I have just developed such a strong feeling of how incredibly lucky (or blessed) I am in this life. Overall my family got through it fine and we all feel closer than ever.

But it is a fact that this virus is dreadful. And people do not realize it until it hits them. Or the ones they love.

 

[YurchenkoLoop]

It is definitely cause for concern. I’ve been doing very little more post-vaccination and still wear masks in all public places.

Re: the Delta variant

“In the UK, where the Delta variant makes up more than 90% of cases, 26 of 73 total deaths associated with the Delta variant were among people who had been fully vaccinated, The Telegraph reported this week.”
-BusinessInsider lol

If there’s any hope in that tragic and terrifying number, it’s that that’s a small sample size.

"Two doses of the vaccines appear to be protective against Delta.

“An analysis by UK health officials found that two doses of Pfizer’s vaccine were 88% effective against Delta while a single shot was 33% effective. That’s compared with 95% efficacy against the original strain, or 52% after one shot.”

And also cases aren’t as severe in those who have been fully vaccinated. Still everyone should be cautious.

Israel says the Delta variant is infecting vaccinated people, representing as many as 50% of new cases. But they're less severe.

With a fast vaccine rollout, Israel had thought it was freed of the coronavirus. Then the Delta variant came.

www.businessinsider.com

I do not know much about Dr. Jha at all though. Curious

 

[RAFIKI]

Remember, the virus mutates every time it transmits.

I know this wasn’t the main point of your post, but my genetics PhD means I couldn’t let this slide. Viruses do not mutate every time they transmit…they have the potential to mutate every time they replicate. Viral replication occurs many times within infected cells.

Mutations happen when the molecular machines that copy the genome make mistakes. This does not happen every time the virus is copied. Natural selection means you get a balance between generating enough variation (through mistakes) for selection to act upon vs detrimentally inaccurate replication machinery that “breaks” important genes. However, viruses have short life cycles so mutations are common. Some will be neutral, some will decrease viral fitness and some will increase viral fitness. This latter category is what happened with the alpha and delta variants, alpha is more transmissible than the original and delta is more transmissible than alpha. You don’t get a mutation every time the virus is transmitted from one person to another. However, the more transmission there is, the more viral replication is happening and the more likely you are to see mutations arise and therefore select for any advantageous mutations. This is why many people in the UK call alpha the Johnson variant.

I hope everyone suffering from long COVID is doing as well as possible and getting the help they need.

 

[JaJa]

I stand corrected. But if a virus mutates ever time it infects a hosts cell and replicates, doesn’t that mean more mutation with more transmission?

 

[RAFIKI]

It doesn’t mutate every time it infects a host cell and replicates, but it has the potential to mutate every time it replicates. Replication fidelity is usually >99.99% so most of the time the next generation is identical to the “parental” copy. Viruses also have small genomes so the chances of mistakes are low. However since viruses replicate so quickly and often, mutations can be tracked in weekly/monthly timescales.

“A typical SARS-CoV-2 virus accumulates only two single-letter mutations per month in its genome — a rate of change about half that of influenza and one-quarter that of HIV” Emma Hodcroft, molecular epidemiologist at the University of Basel, Switzerland.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02544-6

You are spot on with the second point though, more transmission does give the opportunity for more mutation.

 

[RAFIKI]

I never thought knowledge related to my DNA replication PhD would be on-topic in a gymnastics forum! #2021things

 

[JaJa]

I never thought knowledge related to my DNA replication PhD would be on-topic in a gymnastics forum! #2021things

yea, well, just don’t give us any tests.

But this is indeed a sign of the times and now relevant to all of us in every aspect of our lives including gymnastics and the Games.

Also, my understanding is that most of the mutations to this virus will be innocuous from the perspective of the severity or transmissibility of the virus or whether or not it can more easily evade the vaccine. But natural selection will do its thing and promote mutations that enable transmission and/or vaccine evasion.

 

[JaJa]

You are spot on with the second point though, more transmission does give the opportunity for more mutation.

and that is of course the problem. And why we need people to get vaccinated asap.

 

[Sasha]

Also, my understanding is that most of the mutations to this virus will be innocuous from the perspective of the severity or transmissibility of the virus or whether or not it can more easily evade the vaccine. But natural selection will do its thing and promote mutations that enable transmission and/or vaccine evasion.

A+. You’ll do fine on the test!

Yeah, mutations are random and many have no effect on the functioning of the organism itself, much less its effects on other species. There are undoubtedly many, many variants that have flown under the radar because they have had little to no effect on the pandemic.

 

[JaJa]

A+. You’ll do fine on the test!

Oh good. In that case bring on the test.

 

[RAFIKI]

Bang on, A+ indeed.

Despite the virus’s sluggish mutation rate, researchers have catalogued more than 12,000 mutations in SARS-CoV-2 genomes. But scientists can spot mutations faster than they can make sense of them. Many mutations will have no consequence for the virus’s ability to spread or cause disease, because they do not alter the shape of a protein, whereas those mutations that do change proteins are more likely to harm the virus than improve it (see ‘A catalogue of coronavirus mutations’). “It’s much easier to break something than it is to fix it,” says Hodcroft, who is part of Nextstrain, an effort to analyse SARS-CoV-2 genomes in real time.

This is a quote from the article I posted. It’s an old report (Sept 2020) from before there were variants of concern circulating, but there were already 12000 identified mutations. I’ll look up current numbers next time I’m at work.

 

[JoseM]

I will add the following. All cell-based life forms have DNA as their genome. Viruses, which are not cells, can have DNA or RNA as its genome. COVID-19 is an RNA virus.

José M.

 

[Kittentoes]

Ugh, JaJa, I’m so sorry! I hope you get stronger. You sound like me. I don’t know how to explain it to people, but I could feel it racing through my body, trying to find ways in. It felt like an actual evil entity. That’s not usually how I think. I just cannot bear the thought of more of this. And normally I love the Olympics.