2021 Tokyo Olympics vs. COVID-19

[JaJa]

I don’t see a problem with limited spectators. They are generally so far away from athletes AND in enormous spaces with lots of air moving through systems OR outdoors.

Even if the risk is minimal, why take it? The chances are so high that some athletes are going to test positive during these Games. Cut down risk whereever you can in ways that do not impact the actual competition. Thats how I see it.

 

[JaJa]

Have all these athletes been vaccinated? I don’t think I have seen that.

I believe all the U.S. athletes will be fully vaccinated. But according to the IOC about 80% of all the athletes will be vaccinated. So 20% not.

Japan is just starting to vaccinate their own athletes. But Pfizer donated vaccines to them so they should be able to get everyone their 2d shot by the time the Games begin I think.

https://www.vox.com/22537506/tokyo-2021-olympics-vaccinations

 

[Denn]

Even if the risk is minimal, why take it? The chances are so high that some athletes are going to test positive during these Games. Cut down risk whereever you can in ways that do not impact the actual competition. Thats how I see it.

Because the risk is THAT low for such conditions — spectators wearing masks in enormous, well-ventilated arenas or in outdoor spaces, far from the athletes, are not risks to the athletes, especially with most of them vaccinated or naturally protected. (And spaced apart, there’s not a risk to each other either. those just are not the mechanisms via which the virus is transmitted.)

We need to be cautious, yes, but we need to be cautious according to the science and the probabilities. I am FAAAAAAAAARRRRRRR more concerned about Chusovitina’s health attempting a double front than I am about a spectator, under these conditions, giving an athlete coronavirus. LOL. (I suspect we are ALL worried about that!)

Thank you so, so much for sharing that information about international and US athletes. That’s wonderful news!

 

[JaJa]

spectators wearing masks in enormous,

except half of them will have their masks below their noses.

 

[ucrgirl]

Great news. (Especially the fact that it is the Pfizer vaccine.) A news service I pay for (not rando Facebook sources) reported on a public health England study that found that two doses of Pfizer were 88% effective in preventing symptomatic disease (even the delta variation) and 96% effective in preventing hospitalization.

(My conclusion was that while you can get still get COVID after receiving a good vaccine, your risk of getting very sick is low and that is great news.)

 

[Jack]

It will not be like that in Japan.

 

[Bob]

Vaccination is not preventing people catching the Delta variant so if a team mate is positive they should all isolate regardless of vaccination. No gold medal is worth passing it on to someone who could become really ill or die.

A negative test doesn’t really help unless you isolate for a week with negative tests daily.

If a team mate is negative but has had close contact with a positive case then only the team mate needs to isolate here.

I think that is reasonable. But if the team mate is positive all close contacts should isolate regardless of who they are or how many medals they can win. That is human decency.

I don’t think the US has really been hit by the Delta variant yet but it is causing havoc here.

 

[JaJa]

(My conclusion was that while you can get still get COVID after receiving a good vaccine, your risk of getting very sick is low and that is great news.)

But even people with mild or moderate cases can and all too frequently do develop long haul symptoms. It can happen months after you think you recovered from a not so bad case of COVID, Sometimes those symptoms are incapacitating. Heart failure, daily headaches, brain fog. I think the long haul problems may turn out to be the most consequential.https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-021-01433-3

 

[JaJa]

On some level I know you are right.

 

[Bob]

I think you are missing the point about being more concerned about Chuso doing a double front than a spectator giving Covid to an Athlete.

The spectators won’t be near the athletes. That is the lowest risk of all.

The athletes are at risk from every person they sat near, walked by, queued up near, stood by, bought food from, etc etc. all the way from their home town journeying across the world to Tokyo. They are at risk from getting the virus and then passing it onto to someone else. Vaccinated Olympic athletes should be super healthy and likely won’t be that ill from Covid. But the person holding the door, giving them food, taking tickets etc etc they could be much more vunerable.

I am least bothered about the athletes getting it but very bothered about who they pass it on to. And that is why they should isolate if a team mate is positive.

and PS So rude about Chuso!!!

 

[JaJa]

The spectators won’t be near the athletes. That is the lowest risk of all.

Not directly. But they WILL be near other people – volunteers, ticket takers etc – who may be in close or at least closer proximity to the spectators. The virus goes from one person to the next. That there may be intermediaries does not decrease the risk.

With a virus this dangerous , that has caused so much havoc in the world, you simply take as few chances as possible. Low risk does not mean no risk. So why on earth would you not eliminate a risk that the Games can well proceed without??

And as far as people saying how vaccinated athletes , even if they test positive, will likely have mild cases – read the latest on long haul symptoms in even mild cases.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-021-01433-3

 

[JaJa]

It will not be like that in Japan.

No. Of course not. Who would even think that people at a sporting event in Japan might wear their masks incorrectly. How silly of me.

 

[Kittentoes]

As a long hauler, I agree with you. And my BFF, we thought she wasn’t that sick. She had a week of moderate flu like symptoms, but no hospitalizations. Now she’s on dialysis at least twice a week. Covid blew her kidneys. Yeah, I’m scared.

 

[Doug1233]

It is, but asymptomatically, right?

 

[QuietColours]

Data is from a week or two ago, but Public Health England released that of the 42 deaths they’ve had with the delta variant, 12 were full vaccinated.

 

[Doug1233]

Holy shit. What?! I’ve been hearing that fully vaccinated people are safe from Delta?!

 

[QuietColours]

On a work call, so I can’t go back to the original documents. Vaccinated people are less likely to get it, but it doesn’t mean you’re safe.

Tweet that has the deaths data:

Tweet that compares infection rates, showing that vaccinations are protective:

ETA: On the deaths data, there are no striations of the data by things like age, risk factors, etc. As the data is from PHE, fully vaccinated people are more likely to be older/higher risk, based on their vaccination rollout

Second edit: Mentioning the age issue because it could skew how we interpret the data if we’re looking at “only people over 60” vs. “general population”, not because it’s less of an issue if elderly/high risk people are still at high risk despite the vaccination

 

[YurchenkoLoop]

From the NYT two days ago:

If I’m vaccinated, do I need to worry?​

The Delta variant is unlikely to pose much risk to people who have been fully vaccinated, experts said.

“If you’re fully vaccinated, I would largely not worry about it,” said Dr. Ashish K. Jha, dean of the Brown University School of Public Health.

According to one recent study, the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine was 88 percent effective at protecting against symptomatic disease caused by Delta, nearly matching its 93 percent effectiveness against the Alpha variant. But a single dose of the vaccine was just 33 percent effective against Delta, the study found.

“Fully immunized individuals should do well with this new phase of the epidemic,” said Dr. Peter Hotez, dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine at Baylor College of Medicine. “However, the protection offered by a single dose appears low, and of course if you are not at all vaccinated, consider yourself at high risk.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/22/health/delta-variant-covid.html

 

[Seyonne]

Once they get to Tokyo and start training in the training halls, any gymnast or coach from any country who tests positive could have a ripple effect across multiple teams. The competition could be decimated. Germany could win the team title by default. There wouldn’t be an asterisk big enough.

 

[rlayt]

@Seyonne that is my greatest worry.