Is the judging system corrupt?

[Big_rock_show]

I appreciate this so much!!!

 

[falcon9]

Tables…

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[irichluck21]

You’ll need to go back further though for more complete set of data.

1996 3 of 4

1997 1 of 8 (6 groups/2 byes)

USA Gymnastics - November/December 1997

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issuu.com

1999 8 of 8 (6 groups/ 2 byes)
https://www.gymmedia.com/AG/events99/wm99/draw_wom.htm
2000- 1st subdivision of 4

2001- 1 of 8 (6 per subdivsion/ two bye rounds) https://www.gymmedia.com/ghent2001/drawing/draw_wom.htm
2002- Subdivisions 1 and 2 of 3
https://www.gymmedia.com/Debrecen02/
2003- 2 of 8 (6 per subdivision/ two bye rounds)
https://www.gymmedia.com/Anaheim03/
2004-2 of 4
https://gymnasticsresults.com/results/2004/olympics/documents/wag/startorder.pdf
2005- Subdivisions 1,2,3 of 4
https://www.gymmedia.com/Melbourne05/
2006-5 of 10
https://www.gymmedia.com/artistic-gymnastics/Drawing-Lots-World-Championships-Aarhus-2006
2007-9 of 10
https://www.gymmedia.com/Stuttgart07/
2008- 2nd of 4
https://usagym.org/pages/post.html?PostID=2182
2009- 2, 3, 5 of 5
https://usagym.org/pages/post.html?PostID=4177
2010- 7 of 12
https://usagym.org/PDFs/Results/worlds_artistic_results_2010.pdf
2011- 7 of 10
https://usagym.org/pages/events/2011/worldsresults.html
2012- 3 of 5
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gymnastics_at_the_2012_Summer_Olympics_–_Women's_artistic_qualification#Subdivisions

So you can see that the random draw is …random.

 

[irichluck21]

In 1997-2003 the US was unlucky with the draw. 1st in 1997, 1st in 2000, 1st in 2001. 1st and 2nd of 3 in 2002, 2nd in 2003.

 

[Passion]

I believe it’s random, but to play devil’s advocate, one could argue that it was random up to 2012, then became less random when maybe different people were in charge of the draw.

 

[irichluck21]

No, it is still random.

 

[mnesiptolema]

Thanks for finding those earlier years, Rich. I did say it was a conspiracy theory, haha.

Anyway, having a look at other top teams, just the years for which I already downloaded the draw (2013 onwards), we can visualise who has been lucky and unlucky compared to each other. Russia and Great Britain have had middling luck: half the time, other teams have been later in the day and half the time they have been earlier. The U.S. has been very lucky: only 3 teams have had a better draw than them since 2013 (Russia and GBR in 2013, and Russia in 2015). China has been very unlucky, with other teams having a worse draw only 3 times (Russia in 2014, and GBR in 2017 and 2019).

Draw better for others	Draw worse for others	Draw equal for others
USA	3	15	6
GBR	11	9	4
RUS	10	9	5
CHN	15	3	6

I hope next quad China can catch a break!

 

[irichluck21]

What is the criteria for draw is better for others vs draw is worse for others. Isn’t it about being a good draw for them or a poor draw for them? I don’t understand “good for others” “bad for others”.

Also, the actual events themselves provide a different source of data because the qualification format changes by the year/event, it is never 100% uniform each year.

Individual Worlds were interesting because the 3 slots were divided up into 4 subdivisions, or in the case of 2002, 2 slots into 3. So in the case of 4 subdivisions, each NOC has a 75% chance of getting drawn into subdivision 1.

When you look at the Olympics these are limited to only 12 full teams, as opposed to 24 or more. With less subdivisions 4 and later 5. Starting in 2016 and also in 2020, the FIG decided that they would formally create two subdivisions of two full teams and three subdivisions of three full teams, so that teams and individuals are equally distributed, to avoid 2012 when Brazil was in a subdivision by themselves. This is because of the number of extra individuals that have qualified since it is no longer 6 gymnasts per team. Obviously when there are factors and limits in place, the draw will look less random.
For example if only 2 full teams compete in the first subdivision then all teams have a 16% chance of being in the first subdivision. The next subdivision is 3 full teams, with ten teams left so getting drawn for that subdivision increases to 30%.

Worlds is also slightly different now as well in terms of pre Olympics Worlds, in qualifications there are 24 full teams and with 12 subdivisions, each subdivision has two full teams and two mixed groups. So there is no probability for 4 full teams to get drawn together any longer. Chances of getting drawn to the first subdivision for all teams is 8%.

So technically, it is not a fully blind/random draw since there are criteria/factors to be followed, such as the number of full teams per session being set.

 

[irichluck21]

I also don’t understand good vs bad draws for USA, China, Russia. They are all going to qualify to team finals anyway, and the event finals are pretty much guaranteed as well. Biles is going to make vault, floor, and all around in either the first subdivision or the last subdivision.

One needs to really take a look at the bubble teams that are all bunched together.

For example, the worst draw in 2019 was Australia and Ukraine. Both in the 1st subdivision and both were bubble teams eventually finishing 13th and 15th.
Meanwhile, Japan and Spain who ended up getting 11th and 12th were in the 9th and 8th subdivision respectively. What if Australia and Ukraine were drawn into the 12th subdivision?

In 2003 Germany was in the 2nd subdivision of 8 and North Korea was in the 6th subdivision of 8. In the end North Korea bumped Germany by .040. Additionally, Canada and France were stuck in the 1st subdivision and the both qualified to Athens by tenths.

The draw definitely impacts the bubble teams more so than the powerhouses.

 

[MRR]

This is correct. I checked in May and NBC had already specified streams for the U.S. to compete in subdivision 3, in both MAG and WAG.

Draws are typically conducted much earlier, but had to wait until end of June for Doha to confirm all the +1s. Possibly teams were drawn in one stage and mixed groups another?

Anyway, the draw as is gives no benefit to NBC, especially to WAG who will compete at 2AM EST. A subdivision 1 or 2 would’ve been their only chance to broadcast Simone live for the entire Games.

 

[irichluck21]

That actually makes sense.

The FIG document says the draw was "communicated"on June 28.
The teams and mixed group #s might have already been done in May like you state, since the full teams were set since 2019. Then once the individuals spots were earned through continentals and Apparatus World cup the official draw was finalized.

 

[makam]

Is TF at the Olympics alternating country athletes, or are they all one country then all other country?

 

[RedBirdie]

Alternating.

 

[Doug1233]

I love this change.

 

[JoseM]

B_r_s, who started this thread, brings a good point. However, I would not go as far as to say that the judging is corrupt. It is not as much as corrupt, but it certainly has been flawed. Ever since the old days of the OOBNess board, I have seen a good amount of flawed and crappy judging. Yes, some gymnastics judging has indeed been crap !

José M.

 

[YurchenkoLoop]

I feel like the alternating is gonna be such a sh*tfest for bars in particular. They probably won’t rotate together, but the Russians and Chinese couldn’t like their bars any more different.

 

[MRR]

I abhor the alternating in TF, though it works better if there’s a genuine battle for OGM. I love a team competition where the momentum builds with each hit routine, much like the U.S. vault rotation in 2012. Going back and forth between teams compromises that.

 

[irichluck21]

I complete agree.
I wouldn’t mind alternating if it was a 4 team final and each country was on a separate apparatus.

It probably works better for the men since it can often come down to that final routine, as we have witnessed this quad with China and Russia battling it out for team gold.

 

[cats]

I don’t think the competition is going to be slowed down. It takes 40 years to score the routines. At least that time can be consumed by resetting bars instead of just standing there getting nervous.

 

[RedBirdie]

They’ve been doing this alternating format for years now. It will be no different than worlds.