Women's AA: Who is favorite for bronze?

[Denn]

Unless one of them falls, Biles and Andrade will take gold and silver in the AA.
Maybe EVEN IF one of them falls, actually.

But who is favorite for bronze? Make a case with video, data, and wild speculation.

 

[Dex]

I would LOVE for MDJDS to keep it together and have a lights out competition for the bronze!

 

[IratePanda]

Qiu Qiyuan.

 

[Rich]

maybe Alice D’Amato

 

[Ginger]

I would love to see Nemour to medal. Or Suni Lee.
Data to make my case: they both ale capable to score well over 57 if they hit, and actually are very close in total D (roughly same BB and FX, Nemour outscoring Lee on UB but Lee outscoring Nemour by 0.8 on VT, unless Nemour upgrades).

Or Kevric, but that's much longer shot I think so I don't think she's a favorite for bronze, just wistful thinking. But hopefully she makes the top 6 during quals, and will rotate with the top group during AA finals.

 

[lovegymnasts]

Chiles and/or MDJDS
If they hit, they can
Will they hit, who knows?
Would like either one to live up to their full potential in the AA

 

[tempest]

I would love if Suni earned an AA medal. I think she would be close with Rebecca
I am not an expert in anyway but this seems to be a realistic scenario
VT- 14
UB- 14.6
BB-14.6
FX-13.9
=57.1
Andrade scored a 56.766 in 23

I would also love for Chiles to make AA and earn a medal

 

[irichluck21]

I think Manila Esposito can surprise, she is European AA champ with 55.432, she has upgraded from a 1.5TY to a DTY. She is capable of a 14 or close to 14 on each event.
She went 14.4 on beam in European finals and 14.950 at Italy nationals (domestic).

But yeah I think she is under rated and should be right in the mix.

 

[navyblue]

I find Chiles' gymnastics to be robust and reliable, but not particularly inspiring, so I am hoping Suni beats her out for AA finals. In that scenario, Suni would be one of a long list of AA contenders for bronze.

My world rankings right now, adjusted for Olympic qualification and 2pc might be something like:

The uncontested best
1. Simone Biles
2. Rebeca Andrade
********************
56-range potential
3. Suni Lee
4. Jordan Chiles
4. Melanie DJDS
5. Qiu Qiyuan
6. Manila Esposito
7. Alice D'Amato
***************
55-range potential
8. Kaylia Nemour (a rumored DTY upgrade would vault her up in these standings)
9. Flavia Saraiva
10. Ellie Black
11. Helen Kevric
12. Ou Yushan

 

[Hatsumomo]

I want MDJDS to have a banger of an Olympics, but sentimentality has me rooting for Suni to win bronze.

 

[navyblue]

I want MDJDS to have a banger of an Olympics, but sentimentality has me rooting for Suni to win bronze.

Yeah Suni is honestly the only American gymnast I have any kind of emotional connection to, and yet I think I'd be more excited for MDJDS to win bronze. She really has it all -- a true all-around gymnast who actually understood the assignment with this code's artistry changes, and competing on her home turf... it would just be so satisfying.

 

[Deleted member 408]

Gosh, I am missing Jessica Gadirova being a participant in this race for bronze. She should have been a solid contender if not for the GB injurypocalypse.

In her absence, I’m all in on MDJDS for my dream podium. Probably won’t happen but I’d love it!

 

[Aeris]

55-range potential
8. Kaylia Nemour (a rumored DTY upgrade would vault her up in these standings)

She can already go 57 without a DTY

 

[Sasha]

Yeah Suni is honestly the only American gymnast I have any kind of emotional connection to, and yet I think I'd be more excited for MDJDS to win bronze. She really has it all -- a true all-around gymnast who actually understood the assignment with this code's artistry changes, and competing on her home turf... it would just be so satisfying.

And an unfortunate history of underperforming in high-stakes meets ... I'd love to see her go lights out in Paris.

 

[Nanou84]

I'm rooting for Kaylia Nemour. She has been really consistent and upgrading throughout the year... She deserves it! And it would be a perfect ending to her bittersweet story.
As a French, I would love to see MDJDS make the podium too but I think it's quite inreachable if you ask me. She has messed up a lot of beam routines this year, she is known for being unconfident and the crowd will put a lot of pressure on her shoulders. She also has a stapped knee so she's potentially not 100%.

 

[Gymfan93]

Leading the chase I would say is Suni, Kaylia and Qiu Qiyuan.

Beyond those three there’s a chasing pack of people like Jordan Chiles, MDJDS, Manila Esposito, Ellie Black, Alice Kinsella, Alice D’Amato, Flavia Saraiva, Helen Kevric and probably a few more I’m forgetting who can go 55+ and will fight for places in the top rotating group.

Posting this had me sad all over again about all the injuries this year. I’d especilly have loved to see Shilese and JessGad vie for medals too.

 

[CameliasFingerpaint]

How on earth would Nemour be able to upgrade to a DTY? Her FTY is Shang Chunsong level.

 

[Gymfan93]

I don’t think she needs to to be in the mix, especilly now with Shilese and Jess out

 

[MaryClare]

How on earth would Nemour be able to upgrade to a DTY? Her FTY is Shang Chunsong level.

Shang Chunsong almost managed an Olympic AA medal…

 

[Big_rock_show]

Melanie or Suni