How Do You Solve A Problem Like Tom Forster?

[Hatsumomo]

Tom should never have thought a few extra tenths wouldn’t matter. But the U.S. had a double whammy in the first rotation: Biles pulling out, and the team absorbing a 13.766 for what was supposed to be its most bankable, juggernaut score of the entire TF.

This is very true, even if you had an ideal gold-medal team construction where you could have Biles only doing VT/FX in TFs and the other three could handle UB/BB without her. They still would have had to swallow a subpar score when it was supposed to be one of their biggest scores of the night.

Of course, that only brings up two things: the 4-person team format + 3-up 3-count was not the best idea (should have been 4-4-3), and that for the fourth Olympic cycle in a row, the USA is having the opposite problem China has. The USA swims in VT/FX talent, but it’s slim pickings when it comes to UB and to a lesser extent, BB. This is why Skinner was never going to make an Olympic team – she’s useless on UB and BB and more or less redundant on VT/FX. It wouldn’t have been worth putting her on a 4-person team for a big vault that wouldn’t have made up for what she would have scored after having to be put up on UB and BB after Simone pulled out and wouldn’t help the narrative of everything being put on Simone to win gold.

I wonder if this means that the USA has a dearth of capable UB coaches because I don’t get how by now, coaches realize that a gymnast with high-value UB/BB that is consistent is going to waltz onto any World and Olympic team, even if she’s just okay on VT/FX.

 

[MRR]

I meant leaving tenths on the table because he thought the U.S. was so far ahead of Russia, but otherwise agree: McCallum vs. Skinner doesn’t change the outcome. Skinner’s Cheng would add 0.6 to what was Grace’s worst DTY of the season, but all of that could evaporate on beam. Skinner breaks even with McCallum’s TF UB and FX, at best.

 

[irichluck21]

Bars was not horrible though.

Had McCallum not hit her feet on the low bar she would have equaled the 14.1 in qualifications. Chiles also got a 14.1 in team finals. 15.4 + 14.1 + 14.1 would have been legit. As it was with McCallum’s mistake they were ranked 2nd on bars. Biles would have only contributed a few tenths more than Chiles.

The USA can’t be faulted that Russia found a COP loophole on bars and had all 3 ladies doing the same routine sans dismount for Listunova. This was their ultimate advantage in Tokyo.

Beam was the team’s weakest event all quad and was ultimately in Tokyo as well.

Biles’ mistake right off the bat was ultimately what destroyed the team’s chances as they lost about 1.5 off from the start. They needed that .5 advantage going to bars, and would have likely been behind Russia by.5-.6 even with Biles hitting VT and UB.

 

[MaryClare]

Russia hasn’t found a COP loophole. Why didn’t the US do those routines then?

 

[Doug1233]

The US should have realised that doing switch halfs on beam and Gogeans on floor are simply not worth it. Barely worth it for Suni, let alone the others.

Do a clean split full on floor. And on beam - do front aerial to split straddle, get your two tenths in CV and count two Bs. That’s what Nina did and she almost made the beam final. Jordan, Grace, Skinner and Jade weren’t even close.

 

[Hatsumomo]

USAG really did not take advantage of the semi-centralized system they have going on. Using the camps not only to evaluate the gymnasts, but to have CoP and FIG rulebook study sessions with the coaches and to let the coaches who have different strengths work with the ladies.

 

[ArnoldRimmer]

Would be at least a couple of points ahead of the TF total, they got 171 in prelims and that doesn’t account for any higher scores in AA and EFs. I’m away and on phone, remind me in a few days if you haven’t checked it yourself by then.

 

[irichluck21]

Russia hasn’t found a COP loophole. Why didn’t the US do those routines then?

They absolutely did. When three gymnasts are all doing the same bars routine to get a high start value, that is epitome of COP loophole. It was very Romanian of them…and it worked so kudos for them.

USA WAG don’t all train together full time, but many of them use the triple wolf to double wolf so they def. code ***** that.

 

[makam]

USA WAG don’t all train together full time, but many of them use the triple wolf to double wolf so they def. code ***** that.

I was actually surprised Simone didn’t toss a double wolf into her BB after having to downgrade the dismount. Wouldn’t that “connection” have given her D score a tiny boost?

 

[Doug1233]

She would have gained 0.1.

Simone counted:

Triple Wolf
Front Aerial
Aerial Cartwheel
Switch Half
Straddle 1/2
Split 1/2
Double Pike

And then ONE of: LOSO, Switch Leap, Pike Back.

If she had done the Double Wolf, none of those 3 C’s would have counted for DV. Only for requirements and connections.

 

[formerly_odessa]

I love Jennifer Sey and she does a great job of backing up her opinions with data.

 

[Vanessa_Steck]

So you think mask wearing in children- in the middle of a pandemic killing children- is akin to child abuse and that there is actual evidence to back that up? That’s the line you want to take?

 

[rue_des_plantes]

It’s shocking Tom didn’t talk to the press after, because he could’ve spun this so fast as the ultimate rationale for rank order, with the 2nd-4th AAers accounting for 11 of the 12 routines.

Individually, Suni keeps the AA gold in the American’s hands for an unprecedented 5th Olympics. Skinner brings home a vault medal when everyone said she shouldn’t have traveled and was a waste of a spot after prelims. Carey comes back the next day winning floor, and suddenly the redundant +2 each contribute something the other didn’t. Lee nets the same result McCusker could have provided on bars, excepting silver on a perfect night

Precisely. Rank order gave USA a VT silver that circumstances otherwise barred access to, and Skinner medaling on VT is more believable than EF silver from McCusker, Eaker, or Wong anyway. Both +1s medal, AA gold is preserved. Why is he not shouting “rank order worked!” from the rooftops?

It should have been easy to put out a statement like, “we are so proud of what these women accomplished, and we congratulate and unconditionally support all of them. We won 2 Olympic gold medals, 2 silver medals, and 2 bronze medals despite an unpredictable week. Everybody is going home with an Olympic medal even though 2 spots were not ‘team’ per FIG. We go by AA rank order when we are in doubt, because you never know what’s going to happen in competition, and this framework was instrumental in securing us individual and team medals. We won one of the biggest prizes in defending the US Olympic all-around streak, and I hope these women are proud of their historic achievements.”

Hindsight is 20/20, but most of Forster’s audience isn’t thinkpiece gymternet.

 

[Doug1233]

So you think mask wearing in children- in the middle of a pandemic killing children- is akin to child abuse and that there is actual evidence to back that up? That’s the line you want to take?

Jennifer Sey said this? Lordy. The Marjorie Taylor Green crack is a hit.

 

[Vanessa_Steck]

Yeah. She tweeted it awhile ago. She has me blocked now so I can’t see her current tweets, but I gather she moved her family out of state to avoid mask mandates and most recently is coopting disabled folks stories to make a case against masking.

 

[RedBirdie]

Here’s her twitter of anyone is interested
https://twitter.com/JenniferSey?s=09

 

[Doug1233]

To be fair, asking 6 year olds to wear masks is like asking a group of cats to go fetch.

It’s stupid to call it child abuse. More just … not likely to be feasible!

 

[Hatsumomo]

But when people are so eager to throw their kids back into school, masking up is the only choice. People pointed out at the beginning of the pandemic that young kids + masks was going to be an issue, if nothing other than the fact that you’ll send your kid off with a Paw Patrol mask in the morning and they come home with a Captain America mask.

 

[QuietColours]

It was well before COVID, but the first graders managed just fine with masks when I was in Korea? They weren’t perfect, but they kept them on 90% of the time when they wore them, didn’t fuss with them much, and it just wasn’t a big deal. It was just an expectation that was met if they had a cold or allergies (which often means wearing them many days in a row), and they did fine with it.

 

[Doug1233]

You can’t compare kids in Korea with allergies who were probably used to wearing masks pre-COVID, to American 6yos