USAG still doesn't have the first clue how +1 spots work--Statement on Jade Carey

[Jack]

That’s a really good point. I also think it is going to be wild with potentially 6 Americans doing AA in Tokyo prelims. Prelims is going to turn into an American intersquad.

 

[rue_des_plantes]

Yes, FIG didn’t want big NOCs abusing the process. Each qualification method is numbered, ordered, and has restrictions, nominative spots are there for a reason, and it becomes easier to see the FIG’s intent, as convoluted as it is.

Of course, COVID blew this to shit, so there were bizarre scenarios they never intended but were technically possible per FIG documents, like USA blocking a BRA/CAN spot by using PanAms if the AAWCs were completed or cancelled after CCs. FIG took care of that by…reallocating AAWC spots before allocation, which doesn’t follow from any of their documents whatsoever.

I am not endorsing Marta, nor do I believe we have good data to say where the oft-mentioned “AA rank order” breaks down and EF creeps in, or that there’s been any clear departure from previous methods. But I am wondering, how does everybody think Marta would have handled this? Does anybody think the Careys might actually feel better about being selected for teams/Tokyo under Marta than Forster? Would Marta have put her on the main team?

 

[glamafonic]

Hmm, I think Jade is SOL re: the 4-person team under Forster and probably would’ve been the same under Marta all things being equal.

She’s improved on bars and beam relative to her own standard, but I haven’t seen anything that makes me believe the US would want to actually put her up on either event in a team competition over any number of others. Getting 2 per’d out of FX in 2019 was a huge hit to her viability as a member of a four person team since it made her a FX specialist who didn’t have enough clear air between her and the rest of the non-Simones. That leaves her standout as vault and didn’t she get pipped on single vault score by Chiles at Winter Cup?

I don’t see Marta being impressed with anything but her winning the Non-Simone Division on VT and FX every time out.

She’s basically just made for the +1 specialist spot for vault.

Of course, I’ll say this and then everyone else will fuck up and she’ll end up finishing top three at Nats and Trials or something.

 

[RichardL]

Jade’s highest FIG floor score is something like 14.6+ from one of the World Cups, and with the improvements she’s made, I don’t see Sunisa Lee keeping up. Simone and Jade will be VT/FX finalists in Tokyo regardless of whether Jade competes as an individual or not. And if you have a team with Biles, Lee, and McCallum/Hurd/McCusker, you don’t need Carey for the other two events in TF, even though she would probably be fine if needed.

If I were Jade Carey, after the time spent improving my two weakest events and consistently being the second-best tumbler in the world, I would feel some feelings about going into the Olympics and being seen by the American public as just a vault specialist, and potentially going home with two silvers (at best), and no golds.

Like I’ve said in previous messages, obviously this was the best scenario for her when they decided to have her go this route, but her improvements as an AAer imply that she has always hoped for more.

 

[RichardL]

to add: I predicted back in 2018 that she would be the 2nd US AAer, regardless of whether she arrived with the team or as an individual. So I suppose she could still hope for three medals, even if none of them are with the team. (And I still predict this!)

 

[glamafonic]

Jade’s highest FIG floor score is something like 14.6+ from one of the World Cups, and with the improvements she’s made, I don’t see Sunisa Lee keeping up.

Jade didn’t get above 14.3 at her last FIG competition though. And we haven’t seen her on FX since. That said, I never said Suni Lee was going to keep up with her on FX. Jade and her dad would have to be crazy not to be focusing on ensuring her FX final berth.

I just said that in the hypothetical World where Marta is still in charge, she wouldn’t be impressed with her as a VT/FX specialist having lost out to Suni at Worlds or to Jordan at Winter Cup.

 

[Doug1233]

It isn’t totally out of the question that Jade qualifies to AA finals ahead of the 4 other non-Simone’s.

100% not jinxing it - but if Simone were to get injured, Jade suddenly becomes pretty valuable to the US in a TF situation. Suni, Jade, Grace and Morgan/Riley would still win gold.

And back in 2018, the thought of locking in an Olympic spot was beyond their wildest dreams. She was just out of JO nationals!

 

[Doug1233]

I also love that we are truly going to see all 6 do AA in prelims. I predict that all six will be in the top 10 AA.

 

[tsarinajen]

Using Martha’s strategy from 2016, she’d want to pick up as many event medals, preferably gold, as she could whether that was from two gymnasts or six. Usually the best strategy comes to a vault/floor person and bars/beam person. Bars are the deepest event, so it’d be hard to really stack that event since aside from Lee, I don’t think there’s a guaranteed 2nd spot in bar finals let alone the podium. Without dredging up 2016, Ashton or Gabby could have medaled on bars. I don’t think there’s someone on the US team that can make that claim this year. Beam is beam. You’re going to assume Simone makes that final and someone else goes with her. Sure there’s probably better chances, but you’d have to see who rounds out the team to be discussing the sixth athlete.

Back to Jade. I completely get why they wanted the path they took to get a guaranteed spot, but they had to know that she was realistically only playing for two silver medals with that strategy.
I don’t necessarily think she should be considered for the main team since she already has a spot, BUT we’ve seen stranger things happen.

With all that being said, I’d say Martha would have her hosed on bars and beam at Nationals and squashed this. Nothing gets in the way of the team, nothing. And if Martha felt Jade’s presence on the team would hurt them, she wouldn’t be there.

 

[ArnoldRimmer]

It’s an interesting thought experiment.

Firstly, I think Marta would really have struggled with a qualifying mechanism that allowed an athlete to bypass her. Wouldn’t surprise me to see veiled threats, shenanigans and the like if anyone tried it.

In terms of what would happen if Jade did it anyway, hard to say. While I think she spent most of her tenure being all about what can you do for me today, and in general I’d say she’d have dug Ceaucescu up and put him in a leotard if he had an Amanar and a 15 on bars, that seemed to wane towards the end of her tenure when Simone’s presence and Russia’s uselessness meant she could do whatever she liked. So for example the 6th and 7th picks in 2015 just being yeah, whatever. So while I reckon she’d happily put Jade on the team and lose what she would likely see as a pretty unimportant 6th spot if she thought it was the best thing, she probably also wouldn’t view that as necessary iyswim.

 

[dco1987]

Hello- random question… is there anyone else training two vaults? I don’t know why but it’s in my head that Grace is for some reason… that said I’ve started dreaming about the Olympics again so it could be my imagination…

I am asking, because I wonder if there is a scenario where Jade could actually come away empty handed if she got 2 per’d on vault and floor, her only realistic individual prospects (with the exception of AA but highly unlikely). In that scenario, it’s understandable that she’d want to be on the team because the prospect of being the only American without a medal must be awful to contemplate. Obviously if no one else is training a second vault (Simone excluded obviously) it’s a non issue but if they are- I can understand why she’d want to be on the team.

I totally blame USAG for not putting some clause in that if you pursued this route you’re not eligible for team etc… but as everyone says- Jade kind of spring out of nowhere. But if Jade did forfeit her place- it would undoubtedly cause a weird vibe among other contenders. Even though she earned the spot for herself and it’s only hers (we all remember Jamaica!) it’s fair that some will fee hard done by.

I admire Jade for taking things into her own hands and securing her fate. But this is quite a messy situation and I feel like it’s unfair for this to drag on right up to trials. Other competitors should know how many people are competing for the team spots.

 

[QuietColours]

Mykayla Skinner and Grace McCallum are both training two vaults and will probably have DTY/Amanars and Chengs. Mykayla’s probably a long shot for the team, but Grace is very much in the conversation.

 

[emmade]

Does Jade rotate with the US team during qualis? That would be awkward.

 

[YurchenkoLoop]

Chiles did a Tsuk 1/1 in 2018 at Nats. I don’t remember seeing any training updates since, but maybe she’s working on her second vault.

I’m skeptical of McCallum’s Cheng given the video we’ve seen thus far.

 

[cats]

I’m also skeptical of the Cheng, but maybe she could find a K2. Honestly, I question the need. I’m not a huge Grace fan but that DTY is undeniably excellent, to the point where the Cheng would have to be very good to be a better first vault.

Having said that though, I would be surprised if she doesn’t do a second vault at all.

 

[Doug1233]

The Cheng is 6 tenths more. It could be pretty rough (8.8) and still score the same as a 9.4 DTY.

 

[irichluck21]

Yes. The entire 6 US team members will rotate together.
The individuals cannot wear the same leotard as the 4 person team to distinguish themselves as individuals. I wonder if the +2 will get a unique leotard all their own, just use the team finals one in qualifications or use one of the individual event ones.

The team meets together and votes on which are for TQ and TF then the rest are up for grabs.

 

[irichluck21]

McCallum performed two vaults at Worlds in 2018 and nearly made vault finals.

So she’s competed two vaults at a high level before.

 

[Doug1233]

I do sometimes wonder what Ashton thinks when she thinks about Gabby’s EF bar routine. Her Rio training videos were impeccable. Probably the most well-done bar routines this century so far (it’s hard to compare this to the Chinese Sydney routines but I think this is right up there with them):



Seeing that Madison could easily have competed AA in prelims and might have, herself, also come 3rd AA in prelims, and that Gabby was only used on bars throughout the rest of the meet - Ashton must feel like she could have done a better job.

Gabby was never going to beat Mustafina/Madison even with her best routine. Ashton could have with the one I posted above. I have that at a 9.3 but I think there’s a case for a 9.4.

ETA: Sorry for being totally off-topic!!

 

[Jack]

I’m not sure Locklear would have benefitted from the loose UB judging in Rio as Kocian would have? It seriously raised the E score ceiling for Gabby and Kocian where Locklear had much less room to grow. In the end, it justified Gabby, but without the loose judging I think Locklear would have been the better choice.