Extremely Premature Olympic Team Predictions and Speculation

[CameliasFingerpaint]

I think I am full on board now with a team of Biles, Jones, Carey, Lee, and Blakely, with DiCello and Chiles as alternates.

Watching Jordan’s routines from classics, she is pretty maxed out. She can get .7 back on floor, but nothing anywhere else. Skye just has a higher ceiling, at least 1.5-2 points more. Jordan’s beam is going to be much more of a liability to a team with Simone, Shilese, and Jade than Skye’s floor.

 

[RichardL]

Blakely is such a talented gymnast that I really wanted a different career for her. She should be a beam world champion at the very least, and she should have been pushing Jones in the AA for the past few years. But it's these constant mistakes. Who knows, maybe she can be the Jones of the next quad, finally cashing in on her physical ability after really learning how to compete.

 

[makam]

I think I am full on board now with a team of Biles, Jones, Carey, Lee, and Blakely, with DiCello and Chiles as alternates.

Watching Jordan’s routines from classics, she is pretty maxed out. She can get .7 back on floor, but nothing anywhere else. Skye just has a higher ceiling, at least 1.5-2 points more. Jordan’s beam is going to be much more of a liability to a team with Simone, Shilese, and Jade than Skye’s floor.

But with Simone, Shi, and Suni on your team, you don’t need anyone else's beam. Whoever goes up as the 4th is just there for fun. The 5th person at this point is just backup or tablesetter. If Skye finds some consistency, I'll be more on her team but I think, at this point, Jordan is the better tablesetter. But they are pretty neck and neck at this point.

I miss Spencer's top scores breakdowns. Like is Kaliya in shouting distance of a floor medal? If Simone, Rebeca/Sabrina/Italian-not-broken, and Shi are scoring equal or better, it isn't worth bringing her.

 

[Denn]

Italian-not-broken

That's a cheeky way to hold a slot in the floor exercise event final, makam!

 

[BB12]

But with Simone, Shi, and Suni on your team, you don’t need anyone else's beam. Whoever goes up as the 4th is just there for fun. The 5th person at this point is just backup or tablesetter. If Skye finds some consistency, I'll be more on her team but I think, at this point, Jordan is the better tablesetter. But they are pretty neck and neck at this point.

I miss Spencer's top scores breakdowns. Like is Kaliya in shouting distance of a floor medal? If Simone, Rebeca/Sabrina/Italian-not-broken, and Shi are scoring equal or better, it isn't worth bringing her.

If Suni can do her intended bars routine, the 4th routine won't be needed for any apparatus.

So in that case, might as well bring a 4th routine that could make an event final if someone else makes a mistake than one which is borderline - so maybe thats where Skye on Beam or Kaliya Lincoln with her floor could gain an advantage over the solid AAer.

 

[Aeris]

But with Simone, Shi, and Suni on your team, you don’t need anyone else's beam...

Someone could outscore Shi on beam but yes, it's a contortion to frame Jordan's beam as a liability right now.

Regarding the other claim of her being maxed out already, she can definitely go .3 better on UB compared to her Classic performance (do the Toe 1/1 with a .1 angle instead of .3 and connect it). I don't care for Blakey's UB, her releases lack amplitude and she has more pirouettes that are frequently late (whereas Jordan's giant 1/2 is constantly perfect).

 

[Aeris]

Thinking about Blakley's UB again, one small tweak would help her score a lot better. Right now she starts the routine with Stalder 1/2 + Jaeger for no reason (unless she's secretly working towards some upgraded form of Jaeger); she doesn't need to do a grip change there since she already has Toe 1/2 + L-grip giant later in the routine. If she opened with a Pike Tkatchev, she's getting .1 more D and improving her E at the same time. Could also start the routine with her Toe 1/1 before the Tkatchev, to leave open the possibility of connecting out of the Pak.

 

[Denn]

Those aren't small tweaks.

But I agree that the Stalder-higgins is sucking up E-score.

 

[Aeris]

How isn't it a small tweak to drop the Stalder 1/2 + Jaeger and do a Pike Tkatchev instead (she's already doing a Downie)? Yes she will need to train it, won't just happen instantly, but that's the most realistic thing she can possibly do in time for Trials to help herself on UB.

ETA - Well, the absolute quickest fix she could do is a regular Stalder circle instead of the opening sequence. She'd lose .1 D but gain so much back on E.

 

[Denn]

How isn't it a small tweak to drop the Stalder 1/2 + Jaeger and do a Pike Tkatchev instead (she's already doing a Downie)? Yes she will need to train it, won't just happen instantly, but that's the most realistic thing she can possibly do in time for Trials to help herself on UB.

ETA - Well, the absolute quickest fix she could do is a regular Stalder circle instead of the opening sequence. She'd lose .1 D but gain so much back on E.

Now THAT is a quick fix!

 

[RAFIKI]

Bumping this for kicks

I've just read through the full thread and as usual there are some prescient predictions alongside some howlers!

 

[irichluck21]

Well Suni surpassed some of our previous expectations.
2nd AA at Trials, 3rd AA at the Olympics. Dare I say it, the most successful comeback of all time? Given her medical issues?

 

[Hatsumomo]

I don’t think Konnor McClain’s health will hold out. Other than that, I can see Suni, Jordan, and Jade making the team.

I think so far re-reading the thread, this is the most accurate prediction.

 

[makam]

I think Dex was closest it was just Jones being replaced with a n00b and not Simone. And sorry JaJa has lost her house cuz Simone was on the team (though, of course, Gabby didn't pan out as some of us hoped).

 

[JaJa]

And sorry JaJa has lost her house cuz Simone was on the team

What on earth was i thinking? I can not believe I said that

 

[makam]

What on earth was i thinking? I can not believe I said that

You were probably thinking she was so done with this shit. I know I was...

 

[JaJa]

You were probably thinking she was so done with this shit. I know I was...

I guess. Jeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeesh. Thank God I was wrong. Oddly, I still have my house.

 

[arabiandoublefront]

I think so far re-reading the thread, this is the most accurate prediction.

Dang, I totally forgot that I had said that. Wow.

 

[Denn]

I guess. Jeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeesh. Thank God I was wrong. Oddly, I still have my house.

Okay, good. I was imagining you living on the streets, trying to peddle legal services for a roof over your head.

 

[Big_rock_show]

Okay now we need a 2028 LA prediction thread