What will happen? NCAA vs. House if....

[GEMINAM]

What will happen if the NCAA vs. House is not approved? Do the old rules stay? I mean we are already into June and the judge has not come back with a ruling. We are less than a month away from when the "new" rules would go into effect.

 

[cuuf]

The most obvious thing is that there is going to be a trial. That 100% will happen if a settlement is not reached. I am not a lawyer, but I have been involved in litigation and what the universal thing that lawyers facing a trail say is YOU DO NOT WANT TO GO TO TRIAL, because anything can happen and your clients lose a degree of control of the outcome. I am still very confident that the settlement will be approved. Maybe even the day before. Heres my logic: 1. 99% of the settlement has been approved and the schools are already operating/planning as if it is going to effect. They have changed funding mechanisms, booster organizations, reduced staff, etc. all these are in compliance with the settlement rules. 2. It is so strongly in both parties interest to have the settlement. As trial will in high likelihood eliminate the NCAA, and while we all hate the NCAA it is the only glue keeping the college athletics together. No NCAA and all schools are free to do whatever they want (and with the current administration, don't think Title IX is going to save anybody). The prospect of mutual self destruction, like nuclear war should be a deterrent enough. Of course all it takes is one clown willing to hit the button but I still and betting on high certainty the settlement will occur in time, maybe one or two of the items get a little delay, but its going to happen.

 

[OnoNoKomachi]

These guys definitely don't want a trial. The NCAA doesn't because they may get stuck paying out way more.

As far as Title lX is concerned, that is about the only thing that has been left standing by the administration.

There has been zero mention of the administration doing anything to Title lX, and amazingly despite the giant purge of forbidden words and threats to dissolve the Department of Education, the Equity in Athletics database is still up. Equity is one of the "bad words", but somehow this survived. It's like they just forgot.

It's not always up to the administration to enforce Title lX.

People can complain to the Office of Civil Rights, which is probably staffed by 5 people and I agree probably won't investigate a thing. It will be interesting to see what it does with future complaints.

Then there is the court system, over which the administration has a lot less control. The math for some of this is pretty cut and dried, and there are years of legal precedent. The real enforcement actually came about because of lawsuits, not the OCR.

I'm part of the men's NCAA community, and believe me, no one there is telling themselves Title lX is a dead letter.

Lawyers don't think so. I've seen posts on X soliciting female athletes to get ready to sue over NIL money.

I do think Title lX as we know it is entering its last days. Courts no longer have to defer to the agency interpretation of the law, so there could be some changes in the future. Legislation could also come about to basically end it as we know it when it applies to sports.

 

[cuuf]

Ya, the Trump admin did eliminate the rules around Title IX and protections for accusers, making it more difficult for women (and some men) to come forward and pursue claims. These rules were put in place by Biden and reverted back by Trump. They certainly havent eliminated it but I think we all can follow where the administration will come down on enforcement of Title IX. Remember Title IX is not a law per se but a regulation from a Civil rights law. So lawsuits in this vein will be under the 72 civil rights law. In this environment, the way the supreme court has been ruling against civil rights, I am not optimistic that Title IX will protect women's sports in this new world (nor the non-revenue men's sports for that matter). All it takes is the first Tennessee or Texas or Ohio State to make the first move in the drive for competitive advantage.

Regardless, I just know if they take this case to trial, college athletics as we know it will be over. That's my fatalistic point of view. With the settlement there still is a chance for some semblance of college athletics, albeit drastically changed.

 

[GEMINAM]

I just read something today that the judge extended the date now to June 26th ( could be wrong by a few days )... So that really puts it VERY close to the deadline! I agree that they do not want this to go to trial. So if they keep pushing it I am assuming they will have to delay parts of it for sure. It just seems clumsy to cut it so close to training season etc..

 

[cuuf]

I just read something today that the judge extended the date now to June 26th ( could be wrong by a few days )... So that really puts it VERY close to the deadline! I agree that they do not want this to go to trial. So if they keep pushing it I am assuming they will have to delay parts of it for sure. It just seems clumsy to cut it so close to training season etc..

Again. schools are already operating under the settlement agreement. Before the judge even created the initial delay she said everything was acceptable to her to approve EXCEPT the grandfathering. So everything else is/has been moving forward. The NCAA has put together the oversight board for NIL, schools are firing and adjusting staff accordingly. I think the only potential delay will be the grandfathering portion.

 

[OnoNoKomachi]

Ya, the Trump admin did eliminate the rules around Title IX and protections for accusers, making it more difficult for women (and some men) to come forward and pursue claims. These rules were put in place by Biden and reverted back by Trump.

Those changes were related to sexual harassment claims, at the least the ones that I know of. Which of these changes relate to sports (aside from those involving trans athletes)?

 

[cuuf]

Those changes were related to sexual harassment claims, at the least the ones that I know of. Which of these changes relate to sports (aside from those involving trans athletes)?

Title IX all falls under the same civil rights umbrella that broadly means equal access to education for men and women. That is why sexual harassment gets Title IX scrutiny because if women or men feel unsafe to attend classes then it is no longer equal access. When the Trump admin does away with regulations affording protections to the accuser they are signaling how they view the application of Title IX and civil rights. Given this response (in my opinion) it will be unlikely that the Admin will respond if some athletic programs are out of balance in regards to Title IX. In other words, relief for claimants will not come from the federal government, which has the ability to punish schools for being non-compliant. Relief could only come from the courts on the basis of a civil rights claim.

 

[Denn]

I just know if they take this case to trial, college athletics as we know it will be over

I kind of wish athletics were not directly part of the colleges and universities.

It's too complicated. I wish it was separate. The athletes can get paid whatever they want and the colleges can focus on academics.

 

[JaJa]

I kind of wish athletics were not directly part of the colleges and universities.

It's too complicated. I wish it was separate. The athletes can get paid whatever they want and the colleges can focus on academics.

I strongly agree with this. And I think this whole thing is going to be a disaster and likely destroy NCAA.

 

[OnoNoKomachi]

Relief could only come from the courts on the basis of a civil rights claim.

Lawsuits are what institutions fear most. No school has ever lost federal funding for being non-compliant with Title IX—it has never happened. Title IX wasn’t truly effective until individuals were able to sue for monetary damages, and that is likely to influence some decisions.


I agree that the Office for Civil Rights (OCR) may not pursue investigations. The entire Department of Education is currently under threat of elimination. If that happens, there may not even be anyone to enforce anything. People will still be able to sue. Title lX is a Federal Law. However, that would limit access to those who can afford lawyers.


The real issue is that the cuts could be so deep and widespread that many women’s teams may be eliminated, regardless of what the law says or whether the administration chooses to enforce it. Among the first to go could be the women's teams that were added mainly for Title lX compliance, like a lot of beach volleyball teams.


Women’s teams are cut all the time. However, due to Title IX, they are at less risk of elimination than men’s non-revenue sports. I expect that situation to hold in the immediate future.


Initially, I think institutions will continue to follow the three-part test to avoid possible litigation.


Eventually, though, I predict the three-part test will disappear—either through legislation or as the result of a lawsuit filed by a men's team.

June 27th is the deadline for the parties to file their final briefs.

It's too complicated. I wish it was separate. The athletes can get paid whatever they want and the colleges can focus on academics.

That is how it is in every other country. The United States is an anomaly. There are some intercollegiate sports in other countries. Japan has some (Uchimura was a college gymnast), but it's nothing like the big $ and cultural thing it is in the US.

Men's college gymnastics is going to land on its feet because of GymACT. There is already the infrastructure for something similar to the NCAA. GymACT already has as many teams as the NCAA. If men's NCAA gymnastics goes away, the resources USAG is currently investing in the NCAA will probably go there, along with donor $ that are currently going to NCAA teams.

Quite a few intercollegiate sports exist outside the NCAA. Rodeo, fishing, and separate hockey leagues. These are run by their federations, not the schools. They fund themselves.