NCAA tricky geographical coincidence for 2025 regionals

[irichluck21]

Swapping 29 with 28 is better than 27 going to play in while 33 gets a bye.

 

[Regionals]

Maryland's second season high in a row just now at Temple moves them up to 31 in the daily rankings. They also have another meet this weekend.

They have 4 meets left- if they average 196.0 from the best three out of these last four meets, their NQS will rise above 196. It's still a big ask, but they're finally showing signs they may have it in them to make top 28.

Edited to add: Although, that would just raise another problem if both Maryland and Penn State are top 28. There aren't any "clean" solutions left.

 

[RedBirdie]

what the heck, a mid-day weekday meet? Completely missed it! Should have watched that instead of being in an infuriating work meeting.

 

[irichluck21]

Penn State
(1) Oklahoma
(8) Michigan State
(9) Georgia
(16) Arkansas
(17) Michigan **
(23) Ohio State**
(30) Maryland**
(35) Towson**

Washington
(2) LSU
(7) Missouri
(10) Kentucky
(15) Minnesota
(18) Denver
(21) Arizona
(26) Arizona State
(29) Illinois
(34) Central Michigan

Alabama
(3) Florida
(6) California
(12) Alabama (switched with Oregon State for hosting)
(14) Auburn
(19) NC State
(24) North Carolina
(27) Clemson **
(33) Iowa
(36) George Washington (Penn State is filled)

Utah
(4) UCLA
(5) Utah
(11) Oregon State
(13) Stanford
(20) Nebraska
(22) Southern Utah **
(28) Boise State **
(31) Utah State **
(32) BYU**

So teams 29-36 are all in play ins. Two swaps. Alabama and Oregon State for host reason. GWU goes to Alabama because no room in Penn State regional, and is the lowest ranked team.

 

[cuuf]

If that holds, the Utah regional looks pretty tough for that second spot to nationals, with Oregon State and Stanford licking their chops for UCLA or Utah to have an off day. Although it would have to be a cataclysmic day for Utah to not go through at home. Penn State could be interesting between Georgia and Michigan State, but I think an average Michigan State performance tops a solid Georgia performance.

 

[irichluck21]

Washington Regional is a doozy as well. Missouri, Kentucky, Minnesota, Denver, Arizona.

Florida-California at home with Alabama isn't a walk in the park.

 

[Regionals]

Lots of movement in rankings this weekend. The biggest headline IMO is that Iowa jumps all the way up to 28th on the strength of a 196.7 replacing a 195.0.

WVU’s second good score of the weekend moves them up to 34th. But Towson, down to 35th, is still in pretty good shape given the significant gap in NQS with 36th.

The battle for 36th should be exciting next weekend! Even Rutgers has entered the chat with the 3rd highest program score of all time today.

Interestingly, one of the programs that triggered this whole thread- GW- now looks likely to be out.

 

[RedBirdie]

GW missing out and WVU moving into the top 36 doesn't solve the regionals issue. West Virginia would be in the Penn State regional. Same with Rutgers. It's all such a hot mess because there are so many schools within 400 miles of state college. And then Michigan goes and makes it ever more complicated by failing to finish in the top 16 and be seeded, adding yet another team to the 400 miles radius picture.

And if that 400 miles really is radius, not just driving distance, I believe NC State and UNC might be just inside the circle. Fun times

 

[Regionals]

GW missing out and WVU moving into the top 36 doesn't solve the regionals issue. West Virginia would be in the Penn State regional. Same with Rutgers. It's all such a hot mess because there are so many schools within 400 miles of state college. And then Michigan goes and makes it ever more complicated by failing to finish in the top 16 and be seeded, adding yet another team to the 400 miles radius picture.

And if that 400 miles really is radius, not just driving distance, I believe NC State and UNC might be just inside the circle. Fun times

Right, given the impossibility, most people are predicting the last place team that should be going to Penn State will be sent to Alabama instead.

(NC programs are outside of 400 miles according to cgn)

It’s one team over, as of today, for the Penn State regional. But, yes, if Rutgers makes it to 36th, that’s 11 teams that should be at Penn State. The 2 extra teams to Alabama then?

Given Boise State’s geographic lock to Utah, there’s the possibility that if Iowa stays in the top 28, they’re still relegated to the play-in while Boise State avoids the play-in ranked 29th or lower.

 

[irichluck21]

Penn State
(1) Oklahoma
(8) Kentucky
(9) Michigan State
(16) Arkansas
(17) Michigan **
(22) Ohio State**
(27) Penn State (host)
(30) Maryland**
(34) West Virginia **

Washington
(2) LSU
(7) Missouri
(10) Georgia
(15) Minnesota
(18) Denver
(21) Arizona
(25) North Carolina
(31) Illinois
(36) Central Michigan

Alabama
(3) Florida
(6) California
(11) Oregon State
(13) Alabama (switched with Stanford for hosting)
(19) NC State
(24) Arizona State
(26) Clemson **
(28) Iowa
(35) Towson (Penn State is filled)

Utah
(4) UCLA
(5) Utah
(12) Auburn
(14) Stanford
(20) Nebraska
(22) Southern Utah **
(29) Boise State **
(32) Utah State **
(33) BYU**


Iowa faces the unfortunate play in meet at #28 and Boise State locked in with Utah State and BYU due to geography in Utah avoids the play in.

Right now the Washington regional is the TOUGHEST by far followed by Penn State.
Easiest regional (is there though) is probably Utah.

 

[cuuf]

Iowa faces the unfortunate play in meet at #28 and Boise State locked in with Utah State and BYU due to geography in Utah avoids the play in.

Right now the Washington regional is the TOUGHEST by far followed by Penn State.
Easiest regional (is there though) is probably Utah.

I agree, although I think Penn State is harder solely based on the competition for the second spot. MSU and Kentucky are very very close. I think there is a little more (not a lot) separation between Mizzou and Georgia.

 

[irichluck21]

Michigan makes Penn State a challenge, and Ohio State could surprise, though they don't look as good as they did last year.

Where as Washington is stacked. Denver and Arizona are absolutely potential spoilers. North Carolina has looked the best it has in close to two decades. Georgia and Minnesota have a challenge to make it to the regional super final. LSU and Missouri should be good to make the final given their year so far. But neither can afford a poor semi-final.

 

[cuuf]

Idk, nothing I have seen from Michigan indicates they have a higher ceiling than MSU or Kentucky. Same with Denver and Arizona. Maybe Arizona if I squint. Denver has not been the Denver of the last couple of years. Of course the normal disclaimer applies, counting a fall opens the door for any team.

 

[Regionals]

I think if these rankings stand, and Cal is at Alabama, that is not a "safe" regional for them. Cal's road scores, except for one, have all been below 197.3. A low-197 is not a safe score for any second seed in a regional against a hosting team capable of going above 197.

Yes, Alabama has been all over the place and their ceiling isn't very high if judging isn't bonkers. I'm just saying if Cal does end up at Alabama, they will want their best road meet instead of their typical ones from this season.

(And Oregon State's best road score is only 197.025.)

 

[dweiss324]

Does anybody know if there's any analysis out there that shows the number of times a team has made nationals based on their seed? Ie, how many times a 6th seeded team vs a 12th seeded team vs a 20th seeded team has made nationals? The format switched, so I'm not confident there'd be enough info out there to draw conclusions, but that would be fun to know. Like, what are your chances to make nationals / how often has it happened if you're ranked outside of the top 8, and what are your chances coming in based on your seed?

 

[Regionals]

Interesting question. I think compiling that would take some time.

But just going off memory, being a regional host facilitated two of the bigger upsets since the switch to the current format in 2019. #15 Oregon State hosting, and upsetting #4 Florida in 2019. And last season, #12 Arkansas hosting, and upsetting #7 Kentucky.

While Stanford was barely away at Cal for their 2024 Regional, that was #19 (unseeded!) upsetting #6 Denver.

 

[cuuf]

Interesting question. I think compiling that would take some time.

But just going off memory, being a regional host facilitated two of the bigger upsets since the switch to the current format in 2019. #15 Oregon State hosting, and upsetting #4 Florida in 2019. And last season, #12 Arkansas hosting, and upsetting #7 Kentucky.

While Stanford was barely away at Cal for their 2024 Regional, that was #19 (unseeded!) upsetting #6 Denver.

If I recall correctly, only the Stanford regional last year would be truly an upset in my opinion. I tend to call it an upset where there were no major errors counted. I know that Oregon state regional Florida had to count at least one, maybe two falls. I think the same with Kentucky? (Although I am not sure)

I also think regional hosting is a big factor. See Arkansas last year. That's why I would be leary if I was in the Bama regional. Bama is just good enough that being at home could make things interesting.

 

[Regionals]

If I recall correctly, only the Stanford regional last year would be truly an upset in my opinion. I tend to call it an upset where there were no major errors counted. I know that Oregon state regional Florida had to count at least one, maybe two falls. I think the same with Kentucky? (Although I am not sure)

I also think regional hosting is a big factor. See Arkansas last year. That's why I would be leary if I was in the Bama regional. Bama is just good enough that being at home could make things interesting.

You’re right about Florida in 2019, but Kentucky in 2024 didn’t count a score below 9.8 in regional finals.

They finished with a solid 197.475, but it felt after the 3rd rotation that the upset was waiting to happen with Arkansas ending on floor at home.