It’s not really a global issue. Only a handful of countries ever really consistently produced top juniors. And some of those, ie Romania are just not operating at the level they did previously. The US always had, regardless of who was in charge, even in that weird late 90s period where no one was in charge.It's funny in this thread that we're still talking about athletes who were seniors as far back as 2017 (Carey, Chiles) and 2018 (Jones) and 2019 (Wong), as well as gymnasts who were eligible for Tokyo (Blakely). What a difference from, say, 2012, where Raisman was the veteran who had been to just two Worlds and everyone else just had Tokyo Worlds under their belt (or nothing, in the case of Ross).
But I don't think things are as dire as they might seem after yesterday. No one had Caylor on their team and she's now in the top AA group with two EFs. What I mean by that is not just that she did great (she did!) but that this competition is pure chaos. The best beamer in the world fell while doing choreography. Gymnasts qualified to finals with falls.
The US National Champion and Olympic veteran is out with injury, and she's legitimately a successful recent junior to senior transition. I think there's reason to believe that Gabrielle Hardie can be a star. And for all the fears about the havoc GAGE could wreak on Crain, she's great so far. But also, other teams are also still relying on geriatric talent as well. Melnikova was in Rio, as was Andrade. Black was in London! Everyone on the Chinese team was eligible for the last Olympics, and Deng Yalan is basically a grandmother.
Who are the new seniors who are grabbing the torch heading into LA internationally? Perotti? I think this is more of a global issue than a US issue in a lot of ways. The US could be seen as just a microcosm of a bigger trend.
I think that the rise in prestige and popularity of NCAA as well as the relaxation of financial rules means there are even fewer reasons for a gymnast to pursue elite. The archetypal gym parent is just as likely to push their kid to be a gymnastics influencer in ncaa as they are an Olympic candidate.