Potential impact of Simone's return on other countries- tactics, attitudes, medal chances etc

[ArnoldRimmer]

This stems from a discussion @MaryClare and I were having on the GB megathread. Now we have a good idea what routines Simone will do and events she’ll contest, this seems like a good time to talk about the wider impact at worlds. Most of the discussion so far seems to have centred on the US team.

In respect of GB, I don’t think it makes that much difference. They’re still in the TF minor medal contenders group. They still have only one individual medal that’s within their control rather than depending partially on how others do, which is Jess on floor. That medal will probably be silver rather than gold now, but GB never seem to specify colour of medal in their targets anyway. There was never much chance of a beam medal, bars is unaffected and I think Jess would probably have had a much harder time getting bronze in the AA this year even without Simone.

MC said Russian gymnastics people are less frustrated about the ban now than they were when the US looked more beatable.

China- no impact on their team or bars chances, might lose them a beam medal depending on how splatty they decide to be.

The person who probably suffers most here is Andrade. I can’t see how that would change any decisions Brazil make, notwithstanding I don’t know as much about the programme as some of you do. But she was looking at two golds that were hers to collect, and now she’s not.

So… is this going to change anyone’s tactics, qualification chances, anything at all? Or will it not make much difference outside of what the US do? Feel free to wait and see what happens tonight before wading in.

 

[Rich]

Andrade is an interesting prospect. If simone falls she could win. However, if Russia is allowed to compete, she might not medal anyway. It depends on if Shilese is able to upgrade maybe beam since I dont see Shilese with a cheng. The interesting part for me still is whether Russia can compete as individuals as that might even make GB not get a floow medal.

 

[MaryClare]

Russia won’t be at worlds, which is what this discussion is primarily about since most countries will have factored Simone in for their expectations for Paris, but probably not for this year. British Gymnastics published their targets for worlds in March, 2 months before Simone announced she’d be competing at classic

 

[RAFIKI]

In another set of circumstances it might have influenced French team selection. Biles and Andrade are clearly the best two vaulters in the world so having Devillard as a vault specialist could make less sense if there’s a crowded field only fighting for bronze. This will be especially true if Carey/Roberson end up making the US team.

However, due to injuries and federation drama I don’t think the French team had much choice so Devillard was going anyway. Certainly her vault score will be a big help for Paris qualification.

 

[RedBirdie]

And, well, shit happens. Send your best gymnasts. You never know when, say, Rebecca’s hand will slip on the vault table in qualifications, knocking her out of EF completely.

 

[RAFIKI]

Exactly; Maroney, Biles, Carey and Andrade have taught/reminded us that there’s never a sure thing.

ETA I couldn’t remember how close Andrade got to EF even with that disaster. 12th with a 3.0 D score for her second vault. Wild!

 

[tempest]

If I remember correctly she was the third reserve

 

[Rich]

what was the targets?

 

[MaryClare]

@RAFIKI posted them in the GB thread

 

[onodian]

Have we seen a cheng from Rebecca this year? And, if she had one like she was doing last year, could she compete with Simone with no falls but mistakes here and there? Just trying to understand the separation at this point

 

[makam]

I think a lot depends on the final value of a YDP, if Landi is on the podium spotting at Worlds, and if Simone can control the landing of both (she has shown she can undercook the YDP and definitely overcook it and her cheng in session 1 had quite a few steps out. If Rebeca can do her regular lovely cheng and simone has trouble dialing in the landings and takes the half point spotting hit, it feels like it could be close for vaulting.

Rebeca’s scores from Worlds: 15.166 13.800 13.533 14.400 56.899
Rebeca’s TQ scores_______ : 15.066 14.666 13.400 14.200
Simone’s scores Friday_____: 15.700 14.350 14.450 14.800 59.300

Even removing some national bias scoring and giving Rebeca the better UB score…she is still over a point and a half behind.

 

[blake]

In terms of the AA, I think there’s going to be a bit more mental pressure to deliver 4 hits now that one of the 3 medals is all but sewn up. 2 if we assume Andrade could still medal with a fall or two rough pieces.

The only person to give Simone a real run for her money was Iordache back in 2014. If Simone were to have a repeat of Doha, I think Andrade could beat her, but Simone’s more consistent than any other all-arounder.

 

[Sasha]

If I were Andrade, I think I’d focus on putting together an excellent silver medal performance that could nab a gold if Simone were to falter, rather than trying to go head to head with Simone. But I dunno, maybe elite gymnasts don’t think like that.