Alternates.. some in Japan, some not

[Doug1233]

Skinner increases the team total relative to Grace

 

[ArnoldRimmer]

Interestingly the US could’ve still won even with Jordan’s nightmare on floor, but they’d have needed podium training Simone. Or Day 1 Trials Simone, at least. Something close to 59. And even she at her very best wouldn’t have been enough to compensate for the 11 on floor had Russia not obligingly tanked beam, though to be fair it’s not like we didn’t all see that coming. Even when Russia win team titles they try not to.

It’s true though, the key thing here is the general execution scores. In some ways that’s more significant than Jordan’s floor miss. Clearly if a gymnast tanks a routine to the extent that they’re counting a fall, multiple OOBs and balk a dance element at one point, that’s going to be a terrible score. And inevitably that will happen now and then. Jordan’s floor performance was a nasty shock, but the score wasn’t.

The E panels for hit sets on the other hand, all the unexpected 0.3s here and there that ROC evidently weren’t incurring, too many 7s for hit routines… it’s like death of a thousand cuts. It says everything that Russia didn’t have a single sub 8 execution score for a hit routine in TFs while the US had 5. Russia for years have given away so many easy tenths even in hit routines. Not this time.

 

[ArnoldRimmer]

While Simone’s 13.7 meant the US couldn’t beat Russia from that point on, there is another option. Possibly more interesting is that if you take Simone out of that equation entirely, the best scores the 3 person team of Suni, Mykayla and Jade got across the whole Games are ahead of the ROC TF total by about 0.4. Of course if we did the same for Russia they’d be miles ahead, so goes without saying this is a function of them splatting beam as much as anything else. But it’s interesting.

 

[dweiss324]

You guys are hypothetical situation Excel wizards.

How much does a relatively normal/mediocre performance from Simone add to the team total if everything else, including Jordans floor nightmare still stands? Does Russia beat THAT score if you give them back 2-2.5 points for the falls on beam? Theoretically, if Simone competed fully and Russia didn’t fall on beam and Jordan still tanks floor, does ROC still win? How close is it if you give Jordan a more optimal floor score on top of a mediocre Simone performance and give Russia back the two falls? Ie, if both teams had no falls, how close could it have been?

 

[ArnoldRimmer]

Haha fun game!

1. Normal AA round from Simone is enough to beat ROCs TF total. With Grace’s AA scores from TF, Jordan VT/FX including the splat and Suni UB/BB, the US are 58.463 behind. Simone is a 59 AA on a good but not amazing day. So as the US lost by 3.5 points, at least that much. If we say 59 AA, 4 points.
2. If Russia don’t splat beam then they still win, even with normal Simone. Because that takes the AA score Simone requires to something around 61. Jordan’s miss on floor and to a lesser extent Grace’s minor errors make it virtually impossible in the tighter Tokyo judging environment. Russia just falling once would’ve made it a proper nail biter though.
3. Let’s replace missed routines in TFs with prelims scores for ease of working.

With Urazova and Melnikova staying on beam, Russia gain 2.534 and their TF total is 172.062.
Using the original US TF lineups and all TF scores aside from Jordan’s floor, Simone needs 59.131 to tie. That is, a good but not stellar AA round from her. I believe the wwgym panel had her higher than that for podium training, though I don’t know which vault was used.

So the answer is, pretty close but the US could’ve done it if Simone were on. They could also have just missed even with a standard hit AA round from her, which is the point where we start arguing about McCallum going out of the lines on vault, whether Urazova’s AA score is more representative of a hit beam set for her than prelims etc.

 

[irichluck21]

No, Skinner increases the team total relative to Grace

By a small amount, which is mostly in part due to her vault.

 

[ArnoldRimmer]

I was surprised Grace didn’t manage to beat Mykayla on floor in either of her routines. We all obviously expected that with hit sets, Mykayla would be ahead on vault and Grace on UB/BB, but I didn’t see floor going like that.

 

[RedBirdie]

The difference on floor was so marginal. In prelims, that OOB cost Grace, they would have tied. And I don’t think you can discount the effect of Grace going up first, while MyKayla was 5th.

As is the case with all things Skinner, it was her D score that kept her afloat. Her E score ranked 62nd of 85 gymnasts who competed floor in prelims. (Not that any American acquitted themselves particularly well in the execution department that day. McCallum was 27th, Carey 32nd, Lee 36th, Biles 45th, and Chiles 54th)

 

[Doug1233]

I bet no one would have predicted Biles coming 45th E on floor in prelims without a fall!

 

[ArnoldRimmer]

Even with all this, before the Games began I still would’ve expected Grace to beat Mykayla at least once on floor, if not both times. I was definitely more alert to the likelihood of domestic judging not being replicated for Mykayla. Funny how things turned out.

Those execution stats are rather stark…

 

[RedBirdie]

More stark-ness: there were only 3 US floor routines that scored 8 or higher the entire games: McCallum team finals, Lee AA finals, Carey floor finals.

I will leave it to someone else to figure out the other events; I have to go do an outdoor event the rest of today. Yee haw.

 

[Doug1233]

8s were given out like candy at Trials on floor.

 

[blake]

I will leave it to someone else to figure out the other events

In QFs,
Vault: Chiles 2nd, Biles 3rd, Carey 8th, McCallum 11th, Lee/Skinner 30th
Bars: Lee 3rd, Biles 9th, Carey 12th, McCallum 14th, Skinner 40th, Chiles 64th
Beam: Lee 19th, McCallum 27th, Biles 43rd, Carey 47th, Skinner 62nd, Chiles 86th

TFs
VT: Chiles 1st, McCallum 9th, Biles 18th
UB: Lee 3rd, Chiles 8th, McCallum 17th
BB: McCallum 7th, Lee 10th, Chiles 13th
FX: Lee 13th, McCallum 16th, Chiles 24th

 

[Doug1233]

FX: Lee 13th, McCallum 16th, Chiles 24th

This says everything you need to know.