2024 Week 11 3/11/24-3/17/24

[Laura722]

Interesting thread over on Reddit. MLR yelled at Jordyn Wieber during the Arkansas meet. She has no tact whatsoever.

 

[irichluck21]

Its Reddit, would need to see video of this situation in order to formulate an opinion.

 

[cuuf]

I am convinced that reddit subgroup is about 75 percent UCLA fans and of that about 90 percent of them are complete blind homers

 

[Laura722]

I am convinced that reddit subgroup is about 75 percent UCLA fans and of that about 90 percent of them are complete blind homers

I agree with that. Lots of complaints of SEC overscoring, which is definitely happening, but they ignore UCLA overscoring. Every one of the major teams gets gifts.

I'm inclined to believe the MLR story though.

 

[Sasha]

Pretty sure that sub is just three UCLA stans in a trenchcoat.

 

[BB12]

I am convinced that reddit subgroup is about 75 percent UCLA fans and of that about 90 percent of them are complete blind homers

That's very accurate. A large percentage of posters on there genuinely believe UCLA are underscored.

 

[RedBirdie]

Underscored....maybe if routines started from 20 rather than 10.

 

[RedBirdie]

Oklahoma set a program record. 198.775

 

[RedBirdie]

Didn't watch, so I can't comment on a validity of the scoring, but Cal returned the generous scoring favor to Stanford today. 197.675 (Cal "only" 197.925)

 

[Beamer]

Thoughts on Cal's 2 meets this weekend.

Friday Cal went lights out for 198.500, their second highest score of the year to take them over LSU into #2 (yet again... they keep switching).

Sunday Cal went only 197.925. Understandably, they looked a little tired from just having competed. eMjae, for example, landed low on her front through to double tuck FX pass, something she never does. She did, however, do a great DTY with just a small hop back.

Cal's routine composition is excellent for producing good scores. Justin and Liz are doing something smart here. 2 passes on floor, no extra skills, stickable dismounts.

Friday, Kyen Mayhew had her best vault of the season, a stuck yurchenko 1.5 for 9.975. Mya Lauzon also stuck her 1.5 but went 9.925 with a directional error. Today, Jaden Silvers stuck her yurchenko 1.5 for 9.925.

Today was Senior Day. They honored Andi Li, Gabby Perea, Elise Byun, and the student assistant coach.

I'd really like to see Cal get more attention and fans. They're #2 in the nation with the 2nd and 5th ranked AAers in the country: eMjae Frazier and Mya Lauzon. Such a great team. I am hoping that OU has an off enough day in NCAA Finals for Cal to have their best meet and win this year.

 

[BB12]

Oklahoma set a program record. 198.775

Scoring was decent for the first 3 rotations -a couple of scores were too high but for the most part, very reasonable - but it was bonkers when they got to floor.

But still, this team is ridiculously strong. Was very impressed with how they responded to falls in the first half of the bars and beam lineups.

 

[One]

I am convinced that reddit subgroup is about 75 percent UCLA fans and of that about 90 percent of them are complete blind homers

It's actually quite amazing how they will whinge about LSU and Bama being overscored and at the same time see nothing wrong with Arkansas and UCLA scoring 198+

 

[BB12]

It's actually quite amazing how they will whinge about LSU and Bama being overscored and at the same time see nothing wrong with Arkansas and UCLA scoring 198+

My favourite was Bowers 10 last night (was wrong since she slid on her double pike but same could be said about most floor 10s) disgusted them so much they couldn't watch any more routines for the night but there was nothing wrong with the high scores at UCLA because Senior night.

 

[RedBirdie]

According to Road to Nationals, 35 of the 36 regionals spots are mathematically locked in. 3 teams are fighting for the last spot, all others have been eliminated.

36. Iowa State, 196.325
37. Iowa, 196.305
38. George Washington, 196.145

Charts

Charts : NCAA Gymnastics results, statistics, schedules, teams, and gymnasts. Building the most comprehensive source on the web.

roadtonationals.com

 

[irichluck21]

Good thing Ball State got that 198.
They dropped the score and were able to bank the 197.425 at GWU.
If that 197.425 was dropped they would be out of the 36 right now, IF I did the math correctly (and the tie breaker)
If that 198.0 wasn't so insanely scored, the next road score is 196.000. Their NQS would be 196.325 and TIED with Iowa State, so definitely not locked in. Ball State is hosting MAC so it would not be able to drop the 196.000.

Of course we don't know what Ball State would have gotten in Tennessee because we don't have the video, but we know all 7 teams had record setting scores there and by quite a large margin. Chances are Ball State would have gotten more than a 196.000 in Tennessee, but it would be interesting as the half of their road scores (4/8 meets) Ball State when 196.000 or less.

Road: 198.025
Road: 197.425
Road: 196.100
Road/Home: 196.600
Road/Home: 196.075
Road/Home: 196.400
NQS= 196.520

Without Tennessee meet over score:
Road: 196.000
Road: 197.425
Road: 196.100
Road/Home: 196.600
Road/Home: 196.075
Road/Home: 196.400

Ball State does host this weekend so they can and will likely replace that 196.075 home score to increase the NQS, but what if they don't?

If Iowa State (36), Iowa (37) and GWU (38) surpass 196.325, unlikely they all will, but it would could come down to the 198.025 being the dropped score, instead of the 197.425 that could be the difference.

As it is, Ball State is locked in due to this, instead of being tied with Iowa State and potentially at risk of being eliminated.

 

[RedBirdie]

I'll have to search, but I don't think there's video from the Ball State-GWU meet, either. And that scores is quite the outlier as well. They had a bad first meet (194.925, although no one at that meet had a good meet), and then every other score has ranged from 195.625-196.600.

I was curious what Kent State's NQS would look like also dropping the Tennessee insane scoring. (with the usual caveat that my math might be wrong)

Road: 197.725
Road: 196.950
Road: 196.125
Road/Home: 197.200
Road/Home: 197.175
Road/Home: 196.925
NQS= 196.860

Road: 196.950
Road: 196.125
Road: 196.125
Road/Home: 197.200
Road/Home: 197.175
Road/Home: 196.925
NQS= 196.660

It wouldn't put them at risk of missing regionals, but would likely drop them into the play-in round. They have those high home scores to help. They also have a chance to replace 196.125 away score this weekend at MAC championships.

Wonder if there's any behind-the-scenes grumbling about the Tennessee scores.

 

[cuuf]

After all this I have become a believer in the "scoring has to be corrected" camp. Before I was pretty much in the "the right teams are still winning, it's all relative" camp. I see that for the top teams, it really is relative and while crazy scoring can be frustrating, it really doesn't matter for them. Its the teams on the margins, that it can really have some detrimental, or I guess in Ball state's position, positive effects. Either way, it does create problems of equity for those teams

 

[RedBirdie]

Exactly, cuuf. Yeah, the scoring needs to be fixed, and it's annoying to see the top-tier teams getting impossible scores, but the top teams are all the top teams and things tend to shake out in something approaching the correct order at the end of the day. It's the teams on the bubble, whether its making regionals at all or avoiding the play-in round, that the inconsistency in scoring from meet to meet truly impacts.

It even has an impact on D3. UW-Whitewater also went to the infamous Tennessee meet. They scored more than 2 points higher than their next highest score. It meant their SAS, the D3 system used to rank teams, was nearly a point higher than if that meet simply didn't happen. Now, UW-WW made this all moot by qualifying to nationals by placing top 2 at the West regionals. And even removing the Tennessee score, they would have qualified to nationals even if they bombed regionals. But can you imagine if they got to nationals because their SAS was a tenth or two higher than the first team out?

And since I'm a GWU homer, I'll say if GWU misses, it's not because of Ball State or any other whackadoddle scoring. It's because they've been absolutely shit on bars all season. They finally cracked 49 on Sunday--and only scored at least 48.5 5 times. I have no idea what is going on with them and bars, but bars and bars alone is the reason they're on the outside looking in. I hope they recruited some decent bar workers for next year.

 

[irichluck21]

Regional seedings should be pretty much locked in at this point. A few could change, but the #1 seeds (1-4) #2 seeds (5-8) #3 seeds (9-12) #4 seeds (13-16) should not move around too much in terms of changing seeds, the rankings could change a bit, like Minnesota and Ohio State swapping.

Regionals seems to be a lot more clear give that all 4 hosts are ranked in the top 16.
Just a 9 and 10 swap and 11 and 12 swap for host conflict. Much easier and cleaner as it stands.

Michigan Regional:
1 Oklahoma
8 Denver
9 Michigan State 10 Michigan
16 Ohio State
Denver will like this set up because they are coming off a win against Michigan and don't have to go against MSU, which is a much stronger foe than Michigan is ATM. But also Michigan is Michigan. If I am Oklahoma, I don't want to have to count a fall because any of these teams can pounce and Ohio State, who has hit a plateau, is always dangerous at regionals.

California Regional
2 California
7 Alabama
10 Michigan 9 Michigan State
15 Minnesota
Cal should walk away with this one, as Bama and Michigan State don't have the floor routines or the beam consistency to challenge Cal, unless Cal counts a fall. Bama will need to hit bars and distance themselves from MSU. MSU will need to stick vaults to distance themselves from Bama on that event. It could come down to beam since they are both about equal on floor.
Minnesota will need to hope for two teams opening the door for them to advance, though Minnesota has proven it can hit mid 197 when not at home, if Minnesota can nail the crap out of beam and floor they might have chance, given that is where MSU and Bama are weakest.

Arkansas Regional
3 LSU
6 Kentucky
11 UCLA 12 Arkansas
14 Auburn
Battle of the SEC as all 4 teams come together again after SECs. LSU and Kentucky should take the two spots to nationals, and it will be interesting to see how the results turn out with more judges, and a "neutral" site for both teams. IF they both hit, no one should catch up, but Arkansas is at home which can do wonders AND they have the upward momentum.
Auburn is pretty much looking to try to get a few individual spots to Nationals. Depending who the unseeded teams are Cassie Stevens should be in the hunt for the AA.

Florida Regional
4 Florida
5 Utah
12 Arkansas 11 UCLA
13 Missouri
Everyone has been calling the Florida regional the death regional because of Utah and Florida. But IMO, LSU and Kentucky are much worse of a foe than Utah and Florida. Not to mention there is less than .1 separating the three teams (Florida 197.905, Utah 197.840, Kentucky 197.810).
Either regional would be the same for UCLA, at least in opinion. I also feel like Arkansas is more dangerous of a team than UCLA based on what I have seen this year. Missouri probably will want to try to beat UCLA again, but not sure they can pass Florida or Utah.

 

[RedBirdie]

Spencer actually just posted final NQS scenarios. 14 of the 16 seeded team are locked in. He also helpfully laid out Iowa State-Iowa-GWU battle for #36

Final NQS Scenarios

Visit the post for more.

balancebeamsituation.com