Rewind WEEK TEN 25/11 : 2016 US gymnastics championship

[Aeris]

Who is the 6th person in London, Rio, Tokyo, Paris

I want to maximize medals when picking teams:

2012 - Kyla Ross out, Alicia Sacramone and Anna Li in
2016 - Gabby Doulas out, Ashton Locklear and Mykayla Skinner in
2021 - Grace McCallum and Jordan Chiles and Mykayla Skinner out, Riley McCusker and Leanne Wong and Kara Eaker in (this assumes Jade Carey would have tried harder at Trials with the different selection method)
2024 - Shilese Jones in (nobody else was adding anything to that team, I'm giving her a spot and seeing if she can do UB come qualification time)

But even further into wish fulfillment land, if I am given the national coordinator role for decades, then the routines/management would have changed a lot too and further impacted who would have been the best:

2012 - Sacramone out (I would've made sure another amanar girl besides Maroney had a competitive 2nd vault, probably Wieber), Nastia Liukin in (yes even with her limited training time, those sets could've been constructed better and allowed her to hit)

2016 - Madison Kocian out, Gabby Douglas in / (and potentially Maroney over Raisman or Skinner; in the world where Maroney had never been abused and mismanaged, she might've had more longevity and been one of the best ever on floor)

2021 - McCusker and Carey out, Shilese Jones and Mykayla Skinner in (Shilese being guided to her potential earlier in her career means she is taking McCusker's spot for sure, and here's the thing about Jade Carey - I don't think I could have done much to improve where she was at in 2021, whereas Wong/Eaker/Skinner could've had vastly better routine construction and coaching)

2024 - Hezly Rivera and Jordan Chiles out, Gabby Douglas and Leanne Wong in (Gabby would have been confident and ready to go under my stewardship, I am making it happen. Leanne is more talented than Jordan, so naturally she'll make it when having smarter routines, given the unfortunate injury to Skye Blakely)

 

[irichluck21]

Great analysis. I forgot about Sacramone, as she had two vaults, though her Rudi was .2 less than Ebee's Amanar.

Good thought on maximizing medals, but I was looking at it like Marta would have, putting the team competition as priority.

 

[Aeris]

I think Marta takes:
2012: Anna Li
2016: Ashton Locklear
2021: Mykayla Skinner and Kara Eaker (no Grace McCallum, she likely would have only finished 5th in the AA if Jade Carey had been trying to peak at Trials, there's very little incentive to bring her on a 6 person team)
2024: Shilese Jones - given how people routinely competed while injured (and hid their full injuries) in the Marta era, I'm going to say Shilese pushes through and hits another UB routine day 2 at trials. That should be enough to put her on a team where the top 5 AA'ers and top 3 on every event besides UB are already being taken

It's funny about Sacramone on a potential 2012 team, in a world where Maroney was the only other person doing 2 vaults - Sacramone wouldn't be used on vault for team finals LOL. And yet she makes herself necessary for the team if you're trying to maximize the medals.

 

[CameliasFingerpaint]

2012 - Kyla Ross out, Alicia Sacramone and Anna Li in
2016 - Gabby Doulas out, Ashton Locklear and Mykayla Skinner in

I don’t think Anna Li would have gone anywhere near the UB podium, probably not even the final.

Locklear is interesting, I don’t think she would have benefitted from the loose bars scoring in Rio as she was already so clean, I’m not sure the judges would have thrown her a 9.4. Most likely bronze, which Gabby would have won anyway if she didn’t fuck up another EF with a medal on the line.

Gabby really should have walked away with BB/FX bronze from London and UB Bronze from Rio. It’s insane for an Olympic AA champion to have so many what ifs surrounding her.

 

[Aeris]

Anna Li was unlikely to medal with that heavily deducted rybalko, but having .6 higher D over Kyla makes her more promising. I believe Anna also had an immensely high ceiling with optimal routine construction and a supportive environment, compared to Marta ignoring her and not even letting her compete at 2011 Worlds when Sacramone wasn't even in the country anymore (WTF).

Gabby in 2016 is frustrating because of how far below her potential she was at, particularly prior to the Olympics, which is what I have to base team selection on for the 1st scenario. Ashton was consistently outscoring her by a wide margin. In the 2nd scenario of judging based on theoretical potential, they both make my team because I feel they both had the ability to outscore Kocian, who seems unsuited for routines with more difficult release moves, which should have already been common at the time (instead of everyone trying to copy Mustafina's more regressive 2012 routine). Gabby could have been the Nemour/Qiu Qiyuan of 2016, had she been shaped in that direction.