The worlds that never happened

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I agree that this has been the trend, but is it because it used to be common wisdom that talented kids would need to gain skills quickly and have competitive routines by 15, or because there is no other way?

Very difficult to figure out until we have a generation of gymnasts that were trained to not have senior level routines in competition by 15. I would guess that they need to at least be training some of these skills, building the flexibility and stamina to get through full senior routines by puberty. These two elements seem most difficult to gain as an adult.

There also seems to be something for having basic mechanics down. You rarely see adult gymnasts “branch” out to skills they have never done, instead upgrades tend to be incremental, which makes sense. Women don’t suddenly show up with in-bars (also a flexibility thing, I guess), and even on floor, it’s clear that people gravitate to certain skills like shilese jones doing tucked twisting, not a double layout. I’ve also not seen anyone (except jade, of course) learn a new vault entry as an adult, as far as I remember.

I wish I knew more about MAG and how skill acquisition works there. They seem to have a larger focus on basics and discouraging big skills as a junior, as juniors won’t be competitive with seniors due to lack of muscle etc.
The reason for the sport becoming dominated by teenagers from the mid 70s is because Soviet sports scientists discovered, and Romanian psychopaths happened on by chance, the same knowledge that 13-16 was the optimal time for female gymnasts to learn the hardest skills.

That doesn’t mean that they need to be maxing out their competitive routines at that age, but they do need to be training the skills.
I think what we’ll see in the next 10-15 years are fewer gymnasts having longer careers and a higher injury rate, as those who had less intense training as juniors, attempt to gain higher difficulty later on.
 
Tweddle also didn’t start competing the Yurchenko until she was 19/20.
Tweddle’s situation was a bit different. She had been competing a piled front 1/2 and a tsuk full. She was told to minimise backwards landings due to an ankle injury and subsequently learnt a Yurchenko 1.5 and an Omelianchik as she lacked the power to upgrade to a handspring front full or tsuk 1.5. I don’t think she’d have ended up competing the Yurchenko entry otherwise.
 
Women don’t suddenly show up with in-bars (also a flexibility thing, I guess),

Renske Endel added a piked stalder to her routine in 2002, which at 18 would be one of the oldest gymnasts to debut this type of element.

Although Chloe Sims had performed piked stalders earlier in her career, piked Endos were a new element during her comeback in 2011.
 
Moceanu also learned the layout barani in 1998 after never competing a forward entry vault before. I forgot about that one. Even the '96 compulsory was a Tsuk entry.
Moceanu competed a front pike half as a second vault in 1995. She also competed a front tuck and front tuck half as a junior.
 
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Moceanu competed a front pike half as a second vault in 1995. She also competed a front tuck and front tuck half as a junior.

Wow, I don't know how I forgot that! She was a legitimate contender on vault at the time for event finals, then. I didn't even have that on my radar at the time, but she was only .025 from making vault finals in Sabae and had that wonky balk on her first attempt in team optionals. The 9.737 in the AA would've qualified her easily into the top group.
 
I get where all of you are coming from but you need to look at non-powerhouse countries and you'll find lots of gymnasts who were awful at 14/15/16 and really improved in their 20s.

If you grow up in a system with high training hours and great coaches and don't have a certain skill repertoire at 15, it means you probably just aren't talented enough.

A gymnast who barely gets to train 20 hours at 15 is never going to look like a 15-year-old who's been training 30+ hours for years at that age. If the talent is there and there's been great attention to base technique - as in they've developed great air sense and perfect tumbling technique on trampoline, they have excellent technique on bars on root skills, etc., there is still lots of time to improve once training hours can increase. If that basic technique isn't there, it's hard to improve after puberty.
 
I get where all of you are coming from but you need to look at non-powerhouse countries and you'll find lots of gymnasts who were awful at 14/15/16 and really improved in their 20s.

If you grow up in a system with high training hours and great coaches and don't have a certain skill repertoire at 15, it means you probably just aren't talented enough.

A gymnast who barely gets to train 20 hours at 15 is never going to look like a 15-year-old who's been training 30+ hours for years at that age. If the talent is there and there's been great attention to base technique - as in they've developed great air sense and perfect tumbling technique on trampoline, they have excellent technique on bars on root skills, etc., there is still lots of time to improve once training hours can increase. If that basic technique isn't there, it's hard to improve after puberty.
Can you show us some gymnasts with this trajectory? I'd love to take a look!
 

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