Russia 's performance

[RedBirdie]

Kennedy is the one I ultimately settled on. You need a decent floor worker with Sac and Li both not doing floor.

For 2016, I had the “B” team neck and neck with Russia and China, and that was using the average of their Trials scores, minus .2 to account for domestic overscoring. They were not clearly superior, and using the average basically gives them the benefit of the doubt, because it means not having the count a missed routine. A fall or two could easily knock them out of the medals entirely.

Looking at the scores, 2012 in particular, I was struck by how high scores used to be (for a number of reasons). Very frustrating that you can’t remotely compare quad to quad. And it’s noy as if the quality of the gymnastics in Tokyo was vastly inferior, but a quick look at scores sure makes it seem so!

 

[RedBirdie]

Back to the conversation about how the US gymnasts were finally scored somewhat according to the code, Spencer posted this and…ouch

 

[Jack]

You e got to give back a point for bars though, somehow Rio was looser than US domestic judging. This was the panel that gave Aly an 8.733 for bars

 

[onodian]

I wonder how much of this drop is Simone not competing (and having a pretty big miss the one time she did)?

 

[ucrgirl]

Plus Chiles had a huge miss. Those two events would really skew his data. He is comparing hit routines (I think the US teams had missed on bars and beam in 2019 but fared better on floor) to missed routines which naturally score lower on execution.

 

[onodian]

He says hit routines only so i don’t think chiles is in there. It would be interesting to see if biles qualis is, but even if it isn’t you’d still add three potential 8.6ish routines if Simone had done her usual

 

[ArnoldRimmer]

Yes, he’ll have left out Chiles but I’d be interested to see what the call on Simone is. Especially with all the do OOB neutral deductions count as execution drama this time round.

For 2012, as well as injuries, the difficulty is so many of them are only 1 or 2 eventers. Very difficult to make that work. The chasing pack did quite a bit of gymnastics that would have scored comparably to a US TF routine, sometimes even EF worthy, but even if we make everyone healthy you still need a massive team. I want to use Sacramone and Finnegan, the former because she was so very legit on her two events and the latter because she was a decent AAer, but they’re both unusuable on bars. So maybe you go with Li and Price… which leaves us weak on floor even with Baker.

 

[irichluck21]

2012 B team for me would be Sacramone, Price, Finnegan, Li, and Vega

VT (Vega- 14.3) Finnegan 14.8, Sacramone 15.6, Price 15.9 (46.3)
UB (Vega 14.2) Finnegan 14.5, Price 14.8, Li 15.3 (44.600)
BB (Price 14.2) Vega 14.4, Finnegan 14.8 Sacramone 15.0 (44.2)
FX (Li 13.0) Vega 14.5, Finnegan 14.6, Price 14.7 (43.8)

178.900 (12 for 12) - Silver medal by .4 over Russia (w/ Grishina mistake)
Vega would do BB and FX in TF and be a useful backup on UB having competed it the previous year at Worlds. Vega was shaky at Trials but I think would have peaked for the Olympics. I trust her more than Baker to hit cleanly.

 

[MRR]

Spencer’s score is an average of all the U.S. floor routines besides Chiles in TF

Prelims
Biles: 7.733
Chiles: 7.666
Lee: 7.833
McCallum: 7.966
Carey: 7.900
Skinner: 7.566
What was that about scoring higher internationally?

TF
Lee: 7.966
McCallum: 8.000

AA
Carey: 7.766
Lee: 8.100

EF
Carey: 8.066

 

[Doug1233]

TF
[COLOR=#][COLOR=#]Lee: 7.966[/COLOR][/COLOR]
McCallum: 8.000

AA
Carey: 7.766
[COLOR=#][COLOR=#]Lee: 8.100[/COLOR][/COLOR]

It’s crazy that Suni won the AA by a tenth. Just look at those E scores. That’s literally the Double Tuck.

 

[RedBirdie]

oooh, this is fun. I omitted Grace’s nationals night 1 floor, as she fell, since Jordan’s fall in Tokyo was not included.

Jade was the only one to score higher in Tokyo, but I attribute that to the fact that she could afford to protect herself and somewhat half-ass her way through nationals and trials.

Grace was very close, but she was still coming back from injury at nationals (and her wolf turns don’t have built-in .3 deductions)

Skinner didn’t see as big a score drop as I would have expected.

Olympics	Trials	Nationals	US average	Difference
Biles	7.733	8.383	8.300	8.342	-0.609
Chiles	7.666	8.183	8.025	8.104	-0.438
Lee	7.966	8.283	8.325	8.304	-0.338
McCallum	7.983	8.283	7.800	8.042	-0.058
Carey	7.910	7.833	7.800	7.817	0.094
Skinner	7.566	7.883	7.725	7.804	-0.238

 

[MRR]

Taking out the double back brought her D down a tenth, so she only netted 0.034. She would’ve won with either score.

Graba shouldn’t have stopped at the double back. The double L nearly cost her the OGM, until Andrade went OOB.

 

[Jack]

What deductions was she getting on the double L?

 

[Doug1233]

Well it didn’t get credited. So it was a dead skill.

Id say at least 0.1 for precision and 0.1 for balance. Likely 0.1 for body shape (flexed foot) too.

 

[Doug1233]

Taking out the double back brought her D down a tenth, so she only netted 0.034. She would’ve won with either score

Brought her D down a tenth AND raised her E like 3.

Like you say, the biffed double L had already happened. So the double back really was the difference.

 

[MRR]

Reviewing Suni’s floor, I surprised she didn’t have more of a spread from TF to AA. I judged her at 7.9 (TF) and 8.3 (AA), you went 7.8/8.3, but she scored 7.966/8.1. The double back was probably throwing away 0.5: 0.3 hop, 0.1 balance, 0.1 legs or chest.

The double L was slightly better in TF: the leg stayed more at 90 and she didn’t hop, but definitely still a body shape and precision deduction. She’s also one of the most flat-footed turners I’ve seen.

 

[Doug1233]

I think she probably lost quite a bit more on the L Turn than we probably took. But I agree it was more an 8.3 than an 8.1 routine.