Insanely Premature 2028 Olympics Predictions Thread

[makam]

Go wild, go crazy, throw some spaghetti at the wall and see what sticks!

Here is the current US National and Junior National teams: https://usagym.org/women/team/ (I can add other countries if anyone has them). If guessing gymnasts isn't your thing, guess the 12 teams that will make it. (those who prefer men's, join in with your guesses)

My predictions
USA
Simone Biles (she's a gymnastics junkie)
Hezley Rivera
Joscelyn Roberson
Dulcy Caylor Gabby Douglas!!!
Jayla Hang

Brazil
Rebeca Andrade
Flavia Sariava (two more who just can't get enough)
?
?
?

GB
Jess Gadirova
Ondine Achampong
TBD
TBD
TBD

Teams: USA, CHN, RUS, GBR, BRA, MEX, GER, FRA, JPN, ITA, GER, CAN

 

[MRR]

Shilese Jones will finally get her Olympics.

 

[KathySantoni]

Shilese Jones will finally get her Olympics.

That would be impressive at 26. The same age Mustafina was when she retired. Khorkina was 25 when she left the sport and Simone is now 27. I hope she can make it the same way Andrade did after injury.

 

[Denn]

How often do medalists repeat 4 years later?

In 2024, 5 people medaled again (and accounted for a LOT of medals)

In 2021, it was just Biles, though Ferrari and Andrade were an unlucky day from medaling in 2016.

in 2016, Paseka, Mustafina, Douglas, and Raisman all medaled again.

In 2012, Izbasa, Ponor, He Kexin, Deng Linlin, Beth Tweddle (I don't accept the 2008 bars results, LOL)

In 2008, just Chusovitina (16 years earlier), though Cheng Fei was close to medaling 4 years earlier.

So I guess it's common. And it does cross my mind several 17-year olds medaled and will likely still be going — Kaylia Nemour, Qiu Qiyuan, Manila Esposito, Sabrina Voinea (if one feels that she medaled), etc. I would think Neymour will be vying to defend her title, too.

 

[Denn]

BTW, great thread title — to contrast with the "Extremely premature" predictions that were only a year ago. LOL.

 

[ArnoldRimmer]

And it does cross my mind several 17-year olds medaled and will likely still be going — Kaylia Nemour, Qiu Qiyuan, Manila Esposito, Sabrina Voinea (if one feels that she medaled), etc. I would think Neymour will be vying to defend her title, too.

Nemour strikes me as the one with the best chance. No real domestic competitors, but also enough strengths that she doesn't have to put all her eggs in one basket when qualifying. If it happens that she's injured at 2027 worlds, she'd still be a leading contender for both continental AA and world cup qualification. There's always some risk when qualification is entirely on you, but then Qiu Qiyuan is going to have huge competition to make the Chinese team again. Italy should in theory also be very competitive, but we know how they are with injuring everyone.

Voinea would be in a really good position, in that Romania stand a good chance of qualifying a team but also aren't strong enough for it to be a worry about her making it. But I'm not confident there's enough tape in the world to keep her together for the next half decade, sadly.

 

[RichardL]

I was wondering what you meant about Andrade in 2016, @Denn, and then realized you meant the AA! And that made me go back and look at results. She qualified 3rd AA into finals in 2016 but made absolutely zero event finals, which is so strange now that she has medaled on every event at a Worlds or Olympics.

 

[ArnoldRimmer]

I was wondering what you meant about Andrade in 2016, @Denn, and then realized you meant the AA! And that made me go back and look at results. She qualified 3rd AA into finals in 2016 but made absolutely zero event finals, which is so strange now that she has medaled on every event at a Worlds or Olympics.

It is weird. The Rio EFs didn't have as much representation from the top AAers as we often see, and the berths were quite spread out generally. Simone made 3, but beyond that the only person to make more than 1 was Wang Yan. There's never been another Olympics where so many WAGs made an EF. Which makes what happened to Andrade feel even stranger!

 

[KristyJ]

We'll see if this is even close, but looking at current US athletes who are up-and-coming and probably young enough they haven't shown their full potential yet, I'll go with

Shilese Jones, Claire Pease, Tyler Turner, Isabella Anzola, and one athlete with two vaults (Lavi Crain? Josc Roberson?)
wild cards Gabby Douglass (all the talent, but must avoid injury and drama), Hezley Rivera (will she defer college?), and Skye Blakely (has the ability, will it motivate her to try again?)

I feel like normally we'd see a youth movement, but it being a home games people could materialize out of the woodwork.

A couple really crazy teams could be--
Jones, Douglass, Pease, Rivera, Blakely for a crazy good bars lineup

Jones, Rose, Hang, Chiles (she decides to take revenge on the judges), Esponda for a totally northwest team, a region from which there weren't many athletes for a while

Skye, Leanne, Kayla, Hezley, and ??? (let's add Thomas, lol, she decides she has more to give) because the University of Florida team decides they're the women's version of Stanford

 

[Denn]

Andrade absolutely could have medaled in the AA in 2016 — and given Mustafina's rough go on floor, the door was open, but Andrade messed up beam and floor.

In qualifications, her vault was very good. But she did not do a second vault to qualify for finals, which was a missed opportunity. Beating Steingruber for bronze was possible.

 

[Passion]

Well I like Claire Pease, so I hope she pulls a Nastia and surprises everyone by lasting the whole quad.

 

[ArnoldRimmer]

Andrade absolutely could have medaled in the AA in 2016 — and given Mustafina's rough go on floor, the door was open, but Andrade messed up beam and floor.

In qualifications, her vault was very good. But she did not do a second vault to qualify for finals, which was a missed opportunity. Beating Steingruber for bronze was possible.

She's been rocking the NCAA salute since the early days!

 

[RedBirdie]

Andrade absolutely could have medaled in the AA in 2016 — and given Mustafina's rough go on floor, the door was open, but Andrade messed up beam and floor.

In qualifications, her vault was very good. But she did not do a second vault to qualify for finals, which was a missed opportunity. Beating Steingruber for bronze was possible.

Rebeca tore her ACL in June 2015, so I'm not surprised she didn't have a second vault for Rio.

 

[Big_rock_show]

I’m going to predict Shilese and Hezly will be on the radar, but not Gabby Douglas.

Nemour will be back and an uninjured Andrade.

 

[KathySantoni]

There's always some risk when qualification is entirely on you, but then Qiu Qiyuan is going to have huge competition to make the Chinese team again.

It’s so interesting that China is still a competitive team to make it on to however has not medaled in Team finals since 2016 at the Olympics and 2018 at worlds.

 

[Rich]

I would go with shilese. Not sure about Hezly. Valerie has a habit of not being able to maintain health over a 4 year period. Nemour, andrade, a d'mato, a Gadirova

 

[OnlyBeansOnToast]

Becky Downie returns at the age of 36 as British Gymnastics are terrified of headlines and court cases if they drop her again. All Aylesbury gymnasts absent after it's discovered that Josh and Molly own shares in ACL repair specialist.

 

[RAFIKI]

 

[CameliasFingerpaint]

It’s so interesting that China is still a competitive team to make it on to however has not medaled in Team finals since 2016 at the Olympics and 2018 at worlds.

I would say it’s competitive in that most of the gymnasts have the same strengths. They’ve actually done an ok job on floor recently, but their vaulting is trending towards Romanian bars territory.

 

[RichardL]

I would say it’s competitive in that most of the gymnasts have the same strengths. They’ve actually done an ok job on floor recently, but their vaulting is trending towards Romanian bars territory.

I'm sure people have discussed this, but where has all the vault coaching talent gone? I mean the team hasn't always been spectacular but there have been a ton of great DTYs over the years, and some all-time greats like Cheng and Mo.