China WAG was so strong in 2008. Why they get weaker after?

[Iminhanoi]

In 2008, China WAG had Cheng Fei - one of greatest female vaulter of all time, and also very strong in balance beam and floor.

They also had three very strong all-arounders Deng Linlin, Yang Yilin and Jiang Yuyuan and a very masterful uneven bars specialist- He Kevin.

They added Li Shanshan, who has established herself as a balance beam specialist after she won gold in balance beam events at Chinese National Gymnastics Championships two consecutive times (2006 and 2007).

They still had too many more options: Sui Lu, Xiao Sha who were not selected to compete at the 2008 Olympic because no more seats available.





As a very strong team, The Chinese WAG team has defeated the USA team and won their first team gold at Olympic, despite US team also very strong that year (had two gigantic all-arounders Shawn Johnson and Nastia Liukin).





However after 2008, Chinese WAG get weaker. In team, they can only fighting for bronze (only in 2016).
They only produced one new Olympic champion (Guan Chenchen) since Olympic 2008 (Deng Linlin won gold in 2012 but she already has won gold in 2008).




In Olympic this year, China WAG only can fighting for gold at UB and BB but both failed. In team final, Qiu Qiyuan, Luo Huan, Zhou Yaqin were not strong enough to help their team to get any medals (only placed 6th)

 

[makam]

Isn't there a lot of internal political maneuvering between the different regions/clubs? Like, they won't pick someone for the Olympic team if there are too many from that region or club already chosen? Also, it seems like they've really prioritized UB and BB at the expense of VT and FX. It could be because the gymnasts themselves prefer those two and so train them and excel and bring so much to the team, the coaches are willing to forget their mediocre VT and FX skills. But when it is everyone on the team with basically the same skillset, you end up with an unbalanced team that can't reach for the top spot. And generally, UB and BB are the easiest to fall off, especially under stress.

Plus, they were only that strong in 2008 because they went digging in their junior ranks to skim the cream off the top.

 

[hmmmm]

I feel like there was an interview with Maria Paseka or Tatiana Nabieva detailing their experience and they basically said team China didn't really value outside opinion or change.

 

[MaryClare]

I feel like there was an interview with Maria Paseka or Tatiana Nabieva detailing their experience and they basically said team China didn't really value outside opinion or change.

Well Tatiana Nabieva is now a provincial head coach, the first non Chinese to hold such a position (and seems a rarity for any woman to do so). I like they listed her name as Nabi Tan.

 

[MaryClare]

I do not know enough about how gymnastics works in China, but putting aside any internal politics, it seems to me that China didn’t cope so well with the COP changes. 2011 to 2016 was very much the age of the Amanar. Everyone was doing it or training it. Except China. Which lead to china increasingly rely on bars and beam for higher scores, rather than vault where it’s unlikely for things to go wrong. I don’t know why they can no longer develop vaulters. Cheng Fei was very much a broke the mould sort of gymnast, but even He Kexin could vault

This quad should have been easy for China with Russia banned from competition. Also they have a vast reserve of top gymnasts that countries such as Brazil, GB and Italy don’t have. Those countries often lose significant scoring potential through injury.

But China’s results have been pretty much where they were last quad.

 

[Bob]

Well Tatiana Nabieva is now a provincial head coach, the first non Chinese to hold such a position (and seems a rarity for any woman to do so). I like they listed her name as Nabi Tan.

She will always be Nabs to me so I can go with that. Do we know how she is getting on?

 

[MaryClare]

She will always be Nabs to me so I can go with that. Do we know how she is getting on?

I don’t know gymnastically, but she seems to really enjoy life in China. She speaks Chinese in some of her videos.

In the past 10 years there has been a huge increase in Russians and people from other ex Soviet countries, emigrating to China. From almost zero. There has also been an increase in Chinese immigration to Russia, although nothing like numbers in reverse

 

[Bob]

Im so impressed she can speak some chinese!

 

[ArnoldRimmer]

I do not know enough about how gymnastics works in China, but putting aside any internal politics, it seems to me that China didn’t cope so well with the COP changes. 2011 to 2016 was very much the age of the Amanar. Everyone was doing it or training it. Except China. Which lead to china increasingly rely on bars and beam for higher scores, rather than vault where it’s unlikely for things to go wrong. I don’t know why they can no longer develop vaulters. Cheng Fei was very much a broke the mould sort of gymnast, but even He Kexin could vault

This quad should have been easy for China with Russia banned from competition. Also they have a vast reserve of top gymnasts that countries such as Brazil, GB and Italy don’t have. Those countries often lose significant scoring potential through injury.

But China’s results have been pretty much where they were last quad.

Worse. Say whatever else about China in 2019 and 2021, they qualified in a medal position on both occasions and were on paper the 3rd best team throughout. While they've been on a clear downward trend since Rio, at least last quad the podium was theirs to lose. There was always medallist energy, even when it didn't come off. The vibe was temporarily embarrassed big team.

In contrast, they've finished top 3 once in 6 major competition rounds this quad, worlds prelims last year, and that's also the only time they've ever looked remotely like the China of old. Even if one takes the view that they were unlucky with the beam judging in TFs, it took a GB meltdown to make that relevant. Which yes, is particularly striking given the absence of Russia.

 

[Passion]

China finished 3rd in Paris qualifications, just .2 behind Italy in 2nd.

Counting a fall on beam.

https://gymnasticsresults.com/results/2024/olympics/documents/wag/wag_quals_team.pdf

 

[ArnoldRimmer]

China finished 3rd in Paris qualifications, just .2 behind Italy in 2nd.

Counting a fall on beam.

https://gymnasticsresults.com/results/2024/olympics/documents/wag/wag_quals_team.pdf

Didn't take me long to forget that one! Albeit Brazil would've beaten them had Flavia not fallen, and the difference ended up being Rebeca's worst floor of the Games. But I think 2023 prelims is still the only one of the quad where they had that same wow, they're medalists in waiting energy.

 

[irichluck21]

Without the NDs on VT from Andrade and Barbosa, Brazil would have finished 3rd in prelims.

 

[Passion]

And without one of the falls on beam China would have been 2nd lol. Can't give Brazil back their mistakes but not give China back theirs.

China's score of 166.628 in prelims would have given them the silver in TF, even with the counted fall. Obviously they weren't able to replicate that performance in the final, but the point is the Paris team was definitely a medal threat. 2022 was China's only truly weak year this quad.

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China was hindered this quad both from Covid and the decision not to add anyone new to the National team from 2019-2020 to focus on the Tokyo group. That ended up biting them in the ass when lockdowns happened. No one new was able to be brought in from 2019-2022. This is part of why you're seeing some of the oldest teams China has ever had this quad. 2022 Worlds we had gymnasts who hadn't competed in front of a crowd in years getting spooked by the atmosphere of a big event.

Things started turning around in 2023 when the last of the lockdowns were lifted. All the postponed competitions happened, the gymnasts started competing more, and new athletes were brought onto the National team. They dominated at '23 University Games, Asian Games, and Asian Championships. By 2023 Worlds China was back to being a medal threat.

Unfortunately with Covid now running wild everyone kept getting sick a lot, and 2024 winter training was largely derailed by illness. Still they were able to do well enough on the World Cup circuit and other than Zhang Qingying's foot they managed to keep most of the top team relatively free of significant injury. The Paris team was strong and had the potential to come away with multiple medals.

I have a lot of hope for Team China next quad. The biggest issues that plagued them this quad are gone. Worlds are in Chengdu in 2027. They're already holding a camp to add more juniors to the National team to prepare for the next four years. Wang Qunce is gone. 2026 Asian Games will not be directly overlapping with World Championships this quad lol. Qiu Qiyuan, Zhang Yihan, and Zhou Yaqin are all continuing. They showed a willingness to send gymnasts out to compete a lot more the past two years so I'm hopeful that will continue. 2025 the National Games are a full month after Worlds this time so everyone will still be fresh for Worlds. Plus China should be able to fair well with the new mixed cup event, as they have both strong MAG and WAG teams.

 

[ArnoldRimmer]

And without one of the falls on beam China would have been 2nd lol. Can't give Brazil back their mistakes but not give China back theirs.

China's score of 166.628 in prelims would have given them the silver in TF, even with the counted fall. Obviously they weren't able to replicate that performance in the final, but the point is the Paris team was definitely a medal threat. 2022 was China's only truly weak year this quad.

---

China was hindered this quad both from Covid and the decision not to add anyone new to the National team from 2019-2020 to focus on the Tokyo group. That ended up biting them in the ass when lockdowns happened. No one new was able to be brought in from 2019-2022. This is part of why you're seeing some of the oldest teams China has ever had this quad. 2022 Worlds we had gymnasts who hadn't competed in front of a crowd in years getting spooked by the atmosphere of a big event.

Things started turning around in 2023 when the last of the lockdowns were lifted. All the postponed competitions happened, the gymnasts started competing more, and new athletes were brought onto the National team. They dominated at '23 University Games, Asian Games, and Asian Championships. By 2023 Worlds China was back to being a medal threat.

Unfortunately with Covid now running wild everyone kept getting sick a lot, and 2024 winter training was largely derailed by illness. Still they were able to do well enough on the World Cup circuit and other than Zhang Qingying's foot they managed to keep most of the top team relatively free of significant injury. The Paris team was strong and had the potential to come away with multiple medals.

I have a lot of hope for Team China next quad. The biggest issues that plagued them this quad are gone. Worlds are in Chengdu in 2027. They're already holding a camp to add more juniors to the National team to prepare for the next four years. Wang Qunce is gone. 2026 Asian Games will not be directly overlapping with World Championships this quad lol. Qiu Qiyuan, Zhang Yihan, and Zhou Yaqin are all continuing. They showed a willingness to send gymnasts out to compete a lot more the past two years so I'm hopeful that will continue. 2025 the National Games are a full month after Worlds this time so everyone will still be fresh for Worlds. Plus China should be able to fair well with the new mixed cup event, as they have both strong MAG and WAG teams.

I'm not. Demonstrably there was little to choose between the two performances in a 5-4-3, which is a more advantageous format to a deeper but inconsistent team like China anyway. The gap was just over a tenth with both counting a fall, and that actually goes to my point. That this is different to last quad, when we knew China had their fate in their own hands. In the 2010s, they'd have had to help Brazil.

There's a distinction between being a medal threat, like many countries this quad, and there not being 3 teams who can beat you if you hit well. China were in the latter category until recently. This quad, they're only in the first. It's an important dividing line.

Interesting points about covid. We also thought in 2022 that their pandemic trajectory being different to a lot of the world's probably made things tougher for them. Weren't the gymnasts still getting quarantined after coming back from international comps in early 2022 also? I'd agree China as a team with two strong big programmes could be a beneficiary of the new mixed events, especially as their MAG are so strong.