2028 Olympic qualifying procedures published

[ArnoldRimmer]

Artistic

https://stillmed.olympics.com/media/Documents/Olympic-Games/LA28/GAR-LA28-Qualification-System.pdf

Tramp

https://stillmed.olympics.com/media/Documents/Olympic-Games/LA28/GTR-LA28-Qualification-System.pdf

Rhythmic

https://stillmed.olympics.com/media/Documents/Olympic-Games/LA28/GRY-LA28-Qualification-System.pdf

I have paid no attention to the latter two, but placing them here for information.

AG team qualification procedures are unchanged, albeit we currently have the fun of Russia being allowed teams at Euros and worlds but not the Olympics. So as things stand they would only be eligible for individual qualification spots. Obviously if this were to change it would impact on pretty much everything.

The Oceania WAG problem remains unremedied. If Australia don't qualify a full team, they've got to be odds on to get a 13th-15th spot plus two individuals and thus be ineligible to win the Oceania continental spot. There are federations in the region other than Australia and NZ, so either one of them comes up with a gymnast in time for the 2028 continentals or WAG forfeit another Olympic spot. I really hope they've done this on purpose because they want a Tongan for representation or whatever, rather than just being that stupid.

Still only 1 spot per 2027 worlds EF, but it looks like only medallists qualify. If the highest eligible finisher in an EF isn't top 3, the spot gets pushed to the world cup series instead. This will impact WAG much more than WAG I would think. Looking at 2023 worlds, 3 of the 6 MAGs would still have qualified from the EFs there, but no WAGs. So we would've had 3 world cup route spots for all WAGs and for MAG floor, vault and parallel bars, other 3 MAG events only 2.

I look forward to torturously pulling this apart and learning about all our mistakes the hard way over the next two and a half years.

 

[Bob]

Thanks for looking at that.

 

[ArnoldRimmer]

Thanks for looking at that.

Have to admit I read other people's summaries before ploughing through it myself! And now Im going to shamelessly crib someone's post from Reddit.

• Criteria 1 - Top 3 teams from 2026 Worlds
• Criteria 2 - Next 9 teams (not named in Criteria 1) at 2027 Worlds
• Criteria 3 - 1 athlete from each NOC that finished in the top 3 non qualifying teams.
• Criteria 4 - 8 MAG and 14 WAG All Arounders from 2027 Worlds QF, by Name.
• Criteria 5 - 6 MAG and 4 WAG from places 1-3 in the Apparatus Finals at 2027 Worlds. If no athletes are in the finals that qualify this quota is re-allocated to Criteria 6 (the 2028 World Cups)
• Criteria 6 - 12 MAG and 8 WAG from the 2028 World Cup Series. Best 4 of 6 scores. Maximum 1 athlete per NOC per Apparatus. In the likely chance all Criteria 5 spots are not used, those spots are also allocated in Criteria 6.
• Criteria 7 - 1 MAG and 1 WAG based on the All Around from continental qualifying event. If those events are canceled the reallocation is from the most recent All Around in those continental unions. [This is the 2027 African Games, 2027 Pan Am Games, 2028 Asian Championships, 2028 European Championships, and 2028 Oceania Championships, yes we are screwing first year seniors in Africa and the Americas]
• Criteria 8 - Host Country representation, 1 MAG, 1 WAG. Once USA qualification occurs for any team or individual spot, these quotas will revert to Criteria 4 (the All Around from 2027 Worlds)
• Criteria 9 - Universality Spots. 1 MAG, 1 WAG from countries that sent Olympic teams to 2020 and 2024 averaging 8 athletes or fewer can apply based on participation in the standard Olympic Qualification pathways.

But I'm eager to hear any points other people have. It feels a weird mixture of easier than usual to predict at this point in the quad because we had a full Euros, then much harder because worlds was particularly unusual, the Russia thing and the US superstars are keeping schtum. Also it is taking me some time to mentally return to the concept of a 4 year quad again!

 

[irichluck21]

New Zealand historically has given up spots that were not "earned". So not surprising they are giving away a free ticket.

 

[ArnoldRimmer]

I suppose in theory NZ could use the spot, but it doesn't currently look like they've got anyone of the standard the Olympic committee requires does it?

 

[RedBirdie]

The Oceania WAG problem remains unremedied. If Australia don't qualify a full team, they've got to be odds on to get a 13th-15th spot plus two individuals and thus be ineligible to win the Oceania continental spot. There are federations in the region other than Australia and NZ, so either one of them comes up with a gymnast in time for the 2028 continentals or WAG forfeit another Olympic spot. I really hope they've done this on purpose because they want a Tongan for representation or whatever, rather than just being that stupid.

Its FIG or whatever their new bland name is. Of course they're just being that stupid.

 

[irichluck21]

I don't think the FIG would ever combine Oceania and Africa into one qualifier, especially with Egypt and South Africa doing so well as full teams at Worlds.


But yeah Australia is always going to have the full team qualified to Worlds.

 

[hmmmm]

I suppose in theory NZ could use the spot, but it doesn't currently look like they've got anyone of the standard the Olympic committee requires does it?

Courtney McGregor seems to be returning/progressing well, also in her final year as a medical student.

 

[eanda]

Because I love a spreadsheet and it's been a while since I've tracked qualifiers, I've set this up. Now to wait patiently to fill it in.

Have I misinterpreted any of the criteria?

Edited link:
2028 Olympic Qualifying

 

[Sasha]

That's awesome, @eanda! It tells me I need permission to view the file, though. Is it just me?

 

[makam]

Needing 4 scores from the world cups (more if you bomb one) feels like an expensive ask.

 

[KathySantoni]

What’s going to be Chuso’s best bet to make it?

Also, is the qualifying procedure that bad? It’s certainly better than what they have had in the past. Anyone remember Kristian Berki not making it to Beijing despite being the Silver medalist at the previous worlds on horse and the gold medalist for all the Euroes that quad…

 

[Matilda23]

But yeah Australia is always going to have the full team qualified to Worlds.

Nothing is guaranteed in gymnastics especially with 3 up 3 count. One injury and a team can finish last

 

[irichluck21]

Nothing is guaranteed in gymnastics especially with 3 up 3 count. One injury and a team can finish last

Continental Championships (for qualifying to Worlds) are 5-4-3.

Oceania only has full teams for Australia or New Zealand so its 50/50 chance as opposed to other continentals. Obviously Australia WAG is way ahead of NZL.

MAG is a bit closer and more competitive. Australia defeated New Zealand by less than .6 and with stronger vaulting, NZL would have defeated Australia.

So yeah Australia women are a lock to field a full team to Worlds, at least for the time being.
New Zealand could eventually challenge them, but its unlikely since they don't seem to want to invest in the program, not accepting an Olympic berth for Isabelle Brett for example. How can you build a program if you aren't giving opportunities to athletes?

 

[eanda]

That's awesome, @eanda! It tells me I need permission to view the file, though. Is it just me?

Does this link work for you?

2028 Olympic Qualifying

 

[ArnoldRimmer]

What’s going to be Chuso’s best bet to make it?

Also, is the qualifying procedure that bad? It’s certainly better than what they have had in the past. Anyone remember Kristian Berki not making it to Beijing despite being the Silver medalist at the previous worlds on horse and the gold medalist for all the Euroes that quad…

Very long shot, but probably the vault world cup route. It may be to her advantage that other strong vaulters from countries not guaranteed a team are decent AAers too, like Navas, Raz and Heron. Is Moreno carrying on, do we know?

I think the big difficulty the procedure designers face is that MAG and WAG would be better served by more divergent qualification routes but they want/need to keep them similar. There's a much wider spread of contenders in MAG, and any process that only allows 3 specialists per event is likely to see a legitimate medal threat left out. The best routines are spread over a wider group.

Whereas in WAG, the field would probably be strengthened more by removing some individual spots and allocating them to the countries that just miss a full team. Hence for example if Germany as 13th placed team had 2 non-nominative spots for Paris not 1, they'd have sent Seitz and she'd likely have done better than any of the 3 athletes who qualified through bars.

 

[Sasha]

Does this link work for you?

2028 Olympic Qualifying

It does, thanks!