2023 Xfinity Nationals Senior WAG Day 2 discussion

[YurchenkoLoop]

Apologies to anyone who’s heard me rant about this before but this judging scenario creates an absurd paradox wherein, Lew is now getting a ‘pike down’ deduction from an E-panel who is blind to the fact that the D-panel has deemed this skill a ‘double pike’ (which it is obviously not – but if we are treating it as such, should not get that deduction)…

But it’s an incorrect pike shape because it is too open. So it makes sense that the E panel is deducting for body shape, regardless of what the D panel decides.

And a well-controlled lunge is permitted out of dance elements. So Biles’ step out of her Gogean is allowed. She may potentially get -0.1 for body shape if she’s not entirely square, and -0.1 for feet precision on landing. But yes, Biles is one of the few who should be doing this skill

 

[ucrgirl]

Maybe she needed a break after the NCAA season.

Or maybe I misremembered and that fact is true about a different gymnast.

World trials are in what, 2 weeks?

 

[irichluck21]

I didn’t think Chiles was that bad. She still finished 5th all around.
She hit two solid vaults.
Her bars night 1 was excellent for a 14.200, of course she had the bars fall night 2.
Beam night one was jittery and of course she fell off night 2.
Floor was not as great night 1 but improved night 2. I think going with more difficulty on floor this year is maybe not the right move as it impacts her E score.

 

[CameliasFingerpaint]

Her beam is essentially irrelevant at this point as well. At best, she will go up in prelims.

She has a couple of very narrow paths to the team, but I don’t see it happening. I certainly wouldn’t rule her out for Paris, however.

 

[RichardL]

Random prediction but I think Chiles will be bringing a Cheng to selection camp. She has learned not to treat Nationals like anything but a practice for the real selection process. I also think Blakely might throw a Cheng at camp and make the vault EF conversation a moot point.

 

[ArnoldRimmer]

Jordan’s not really had a break post Tokyo, has she? Such uncharted territory, always possible it catches up with some of them. Even Suni at least got some time to breathe between NCAA seasons.

Which isn’t to say it was a bad decision to do it this way, especially as she’d have had more idea of Simone’s plans than most. But it’s still a huge undertaking.

 

[Beamer]

Has WOGA ever produced a Cheng or a vault of equal D-Score? WOGA has never been much of a vault gym (bars, beam, and floor, yes). I am kind of skeptical about Blakely debuting a Cheng given the gym she’s at. If she were at WCC, it’d be a different story.

I’m also doubtful Chiles will debut a Cheng at World selection camp because she didn’t even vault a Lopez as a second vault at Nationals.

 

[Beamer]

Worlds team forecast based on Classic and Nationals:

Biles and Jones are locks. Blakely is close to a lock. She just needs to stay around the same level at World selection camp.

Wong would be going if the team were decided at Nationals. But it isn’t. She has to keep it up at selection camp because if she falters, there are definitely athletes who could step it up from where they were at Nationals. That said, she’s likely to go to Worlds.

If Wong makes it, that leaves one spot. And trying to base it off Nationals is almost a fruitless exercise. No one is the clear favorite from Nationals. It will come down to selection camp where some things will surely change.

My personal favorite (leaving the land of objectivity for a moment) for the last spot is Lincoln, but it could be Lee, Chiles, Roberson, Carey, or Sumanasekera.

 

[Hatsumomo]

Why do I have the very irritating feeling that they’re going to shove Roberson onto that Worlds team?

 

[Alinxz23]

Is Blakely is coming back from injury ? She kind of seems over fx, that being said if she could hit all her tumbling she could find herself in the AA final.

 

[irichluck21]

Is Blakely is coming back from injury ? She kind of seems over fx, that being said if she could hit all her tumbling she could find herself in the AA final.

Yes, Blakely has an ankle injury she has been nursing since Worlds, which is why she hadn’t done floor this year until Nationals.
I believe the plan is to change the second pass from DLO to Chusovitina, but likely not this year but in the run up to the Olympics.

 

[Alinxz23]

Thanks for the info, she doesn’t seem to be on some people’s radar but if she can get her fx in order shes definitely a threat.

 

[CameliasFingerpaint]

Because we can’t have nice things.

 

[Sasha]

She’s definitely a threat! I hope she can get floor up to snuff by trials for insurance reasons, but I don’t think they need need her FX.

 

[MRR]

I also find it very optimistic to expect Blakely or Chiles with a Cheng by camp. By 2024, maybe. It took Biles a whole 3 years to upgrade despite having the best Lopez at the time, though Carey and Skinner (with shoddy technique) got theirs faster.

Chiles was in better shape at last year’s Nationals with more time until Worlds, and still did not show a Cheng. Blakely is just finding her stride on vault, but her progress over the last year is notable. I would actually bet on her to upgrade of the two, just not this soon.

For either one, a Cheng needs to consistently outscore a 14.3-14.4 DTY. Vault is stacked with 6 gymnasts doing second vaults, and Carey always has the option to bring back her Amanar (unlikely this year, but by 2024). Blakely and Chiles also have other events that are important to keep in check: Blakely UB/BB and Chiles FX.

 

[RichardL]

I also find it very optimistic to expect Blakely or Chiles with a Cheng by camp. By 2024, maybe. It took Biles a whole 3 years to upgrade despite having the best Lopez at the time, though Carey and Skinner (with shoddy technique) got theirs faster.

Part of it for me is that if they taught Roberson a Cheng then they have to have taught Chiles a Cheng. But I know Chiles took some time off between NCCAA and elite seasons, so it’s possible that the second vault has regressed.

 

[CameliasFingerpaint]

I think in the eyes of USAG, a Cheng scoring 14.6-14.7 will be enough.

 

[gymfan]

It’s nearly impossible for Chiles to do Cheng vault this year, but her Cheng is a possibility when she takes time off from NCAA next year. Typically they don’t upgrade vault at the selection camp anyway.

I think Roberson’s mental toughness is often underestimated. Upgrading vault is a big challenge. She is among the few who indeed delivers upgrade in competitions from training videos in the American team. She also consistently hits three Cheng so far.

A difference from Roberson and Chiles is that Roberson upgrades from Mustafina to Cheng. While landing Mustafina vault is forward, landing Cheng is backward which allows piking down. So it’s easier than upgrading from Lopez to Cheng. Yes, Chiles has more height, but it takes more time to train for extra full rotation.

Blakely just started building confidence of the Lopez vault from her mistake at classics, so it is not even possible to do a Cheng in the selection camp.

 

[rlayt]

I agree that people are underestimating Roberson in some ways. She’s very rough right now but she’s at the right gym to get better. And physically she is tough. I think a more apt person to compare her to is Aly not Skinner.

 

[MaryClare]

Is she at the right gym? The landis have never had to clean up a gymnast before. You’re right about the Aly comparison though, I know he’s no longer coaching but she’d have done really well with Mihai I think