What will the later 2021 & 2022 field look like?

I’m getting ahead of myself here, but I saw an intriguing post on Tumblr/Twitter pointing out that most of the U.S.’ top gymnasts will be stepping back or retiring after the Olympics whereas Russia and China are relying on younger gymnasts who will keep going immediately. They suggested we’ll see a more competitive field next year for this reason.

Do you agree, or is this wishful thinking?

If Simone retires, there’s no place to go but down.

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If Wong and Eaker don’t make it I can totally see them both at Worlds in October.

Maybe Shilese and Emma? Or even Riley if she’s not selected.

How many get to go?

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4, I believe. I wish the FIG would make post-Olympic Worlds truly “individual” – in other words, toss out any notion of a ‘team’ and format (4 athletes, 3 per event, 2 advance right now)… and, instead, allow all federations to send a minimum of something like 2-3 gymnasts, with the remaining spots filled by athletes who earn points in the AA / EF during the last 1-2 seasons’ World Cups, Challenger Cups, etc. It would be a great way of making those competitions count toward something, setting a ‘minimum’ barrier of entry to limit the field, and also allow something like:

USA

  1. Kara Eaker (qual. via BB points from Worlds / PanAms AA)
  2. Jade Carey (qual. via VT/FX points from World Cups)
  3. Chellsie Memmel (qual. via Challenger Cup 2021 points) hypothetical
  4. Leanne Wong (federation pick)
  5. Kara DiCello (federation pick)
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I wonder whether everyone who reckons they’re retiring/moving on now actually will. The gut punch disappointment is going to hit a few of them in the very near future, it might be tempting to delay NCAA or whatever for a bit to have a go at worlds. I do expect a new contingent in 2022 though: it’s one thing to adjust your plans slightly, another to remake them completely.

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Several of them have already deferred college for a year (or more!). I’m sure some are ready to move on to the next chapter.

Which is why it was important that Fatta, Miller, Drayton, and Siegfeldt compete her at Trials… They were never in the running for Tokyo, but it is about giving them that experience and confidence.

I think with them, Barros, Skye, DiCello, McClain the US should be fine heading toward Paris.
The US juniors have been looking great, despite being extremely depleted as a team earlier this year.

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Bump for shits’n’giggles now that latter 2021 is here.

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Can guarantee you that none of these will be on the 2024 Paris Olympic team.

Experience and confidence for what? NCAA? Sure.

Where did I say that these athletes will be in Paris?
I said “heading toward Paris” meaning 2022 and 2023 Worlds. Every quad there is a mid-quad senior group that don’t end up going to the following Olympics but do compete at Pan Ams and Worlds.
This group has NCAA plans so who knows if they will even try for Paris.

2009 Hong, Bross, Williams, Sloan all participated at Worlds
2010 Bross, Sloan, Larson, and Caquatto were there and in 2011 not on the World team and of course didn’t make it to London

2013 Maroney and Ross went to Worlds with Biles.
2014 Maroney was done. Ross went to Worlds along Baumann, Skinner, and Locklear none of these 4 made it to 2015 (Skinner as alternate) and didn’t make Rio (Skinner and Locklear as alternates)

2017 Hurd, Locklear, Smith, Carey went to Worlds. Only Carey would make another Worlds team and head to the Olympics, but she also made her way there as a specialist, this route won’t be available this cycle. Even if you look at 2018 Eaker, McCusker, Hurd were a part of that team but never made it to Tokyo.

However, I am hearing over various social media that the US program is dead without Biles. Without her they are no longer going to dominate by 10 or more points. But the program is certainly not the way of Romania. They will still be challenging for team medals (even gold) and also event medals. The mid quad players like Blakely, DiCello, McClain etc may not be around for Paris but I can see these three being in the mix for 2022 Worlds.

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Reassessing this in the light of worlds and things said this week, DiCello having said she’s not planning to train for 2024 makes me think we’ve probably seen the last of her in elite. Afaik she has committed to college next autumn, so there seems no point in going to all the effort of adapting her routines to the new code for the sake of one final US Nationals.

Konnor on the other hand is perhaps the more interesting discussion. She was quite well received at worlds, I thought.

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At the press conference post AA finals, DiCello said she hasn’t ruled out continuing elite though she is ruling out Paris, so we’ll see!!

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That just seems very counterintuitive… unless she means 2028!

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DiCello probably realizes that she’s positioned to win an AA medal at nationals and make another worlds team next year. Do those, then go to Florida in January.

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And then we have Joscelyn Roberson, Charlotte Booth, Kailin Chio, Katelyn Jong, and Kaliya Lincoln all turning senior in January, and I still don’t have a good sense for where any of them will fit in.

I’m not actually really sure about anyone’s juniors, actually, except maybe Romania. This is the most blind I’ve felt about how the makeup of the field might change the next year since I started following gymnastics.

It doesn’t help there have barely been competitions in the past 18 months for juniors since the focus was on the Olympics.

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What will the US senior womens team look like in 2022?

Are there any newbies coming in? Or would Wong and DiCello pretty much be locks to make the team if they’re healthy (even with downgrades - kinda like a Kyla Ross 2014 situation).

Current juniors who competed in 2021 who will be seniors in 2022:
Charlotte Booth
Kailin Chio
Katelyn Jong
Kaliya Lincoln
Joscelyn Roberson
Nola Matthews
Levi Jung-Ruivivar

I’ve probably missed some.

Some very pretty gymnastics in that group; it’ll be interesting to see where the difficulty is when they make their debuts.

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As we have now recently seen, difficulty is not as important as execution and doing clean dance and leaps. USA got nailed in Tokyo (as they did at 2019 Junior Worlds).
The Russians dropped some difficulty and went for executing as perfectly clean as possible and it did wonders for them.

USA needs to be more concerned about hit ratio and consistency as well as evaluating routine construction.
Tom also NEEDS to get involved more and analyze potential skill deduction traps are and work with coaches to formulate a different plan of action.

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