March 14, 2022
Only conference championships are left.
16 Ohio State
(unchanged since week 9)
12 Michigan State
13 Oregon State
(LSU swapped with Auburn)
14 Arizona State
(ASU moved into Denver’s slot and Alabama got swapped by Auburn tie breaker)
(Alabama moved into LSU spot, Denver moved into ASU spot)
A few moves, but nothing changes too much. LSU didn’t really improve chances much as Michigan State and Oregon State are much more dangerous than California and Arizona State IMO. Michigan State is underrated and continues to improve as the season goes on. I think they have a strong chance to give Michigan a run for the Big Ten title. OSU is struggling on bars but Carey continues to give them huge AA numbers.
Florida, Alabama, Cal have to be happy as they now need to only beat one of the teams in this three to advance. Denver only put up 5 athletes on VT/UB/FX and is unlikely to have any replacements on those event to be able to drop a score.
Oklahoma bracket there is no change. Minnesota vs Kentucky is going to come down to the very last tenth IMO. Ohio State, like MSU is underrated and could be dangerous if consistently hitting.
Michigan bracket is stronger with Denver out and Arizona State in. Missouri is not going to just fall down dead either. They have seem to be in a groove of 197.4-197.5 a few mistakes from Auburn or Michigan and Missouri might pounce on the opportunity.
We also have the mystery of the unseeded teams.
17 Arkansas, 18 UCLA, 19 Illinois, 20 Maryland, and 21 BYU have put up 197 plus (Maryland has a few 197s for example) and 22 Georgia also was able to get into the 197s (at home). So any of these unseeded teams could play spoiler. I would not want UCLA in my regional and Arkansas is dangerous if they fix the bars inconsistency issues they have had all year.
Last 8 in:
29 Washington (+2)
30 Towson (-)
31 Southern Utah (+1)
32 Arizona (+3)
33 North Carolina (+1)
34 West Virginia (-1)
35 San Jose State (-6)
36 Western Michigan (-)
First 8 Out
37 Penn State (+2)
38 Kent State (+3)
39 George Washington (+7) mathematically eliminated
40 Central Michigan (-)
41 Nebraska (-3) mathematically eliminated
42 Pittsburgh (-5) mathematically eliminated
43 UC Davis (-1) mathematically eliminated
44 Rutgers (-) mathematically eliminated
Only Penn State, Kent State, and Central Michigan have any mathematical chance at moving into the top 36 but it will be challenging to get up there.
First time in history a 196 NQS is required to make it into the top 36. To put things in perspective, the last real full season (2019) a 196.070 was 22nd in ranking and 36th was a 195.335
#36 Western Michigan currently has a 196.150, which would have placed them 22nd (over NC State) in 2019!!!